| Exam Board | AQA |
|---|---|
| Module | D2 (Decision Mathematics 2) |
| Year | 2012 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 11 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Dynamic Programming |
| Type | Zero-sum game optimal mixed strategy |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 Zero-sum game theory with pay-off matrices is a standard D2 topic requiring systematic application of dominance principles and/or the minimax theorem. While it involves multiple steps, the procedures are algorithmic and well-practiced, making it slightly above average difficulty but not requiring novel insight. |
| Spec | 7.08a Pay-off matrix: zero-sum games7.08b Dominance: reduce pay-off matrix7.08c Pure strategies: play-safe strategies and stable solutions |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Find row minima: A₁: \(-6\), A₂: \(-3\), A₃: \(-5\), A₄: \(-4\) | M1 | Method of finding row minima and column maxima |
| Maximin \(= -3\) (row A₂) | A1 | |
| Find column maxima: B₁: \(5\), B₂: \(4\), B₃: \(-3\) | ||
| Minimax \(= -3\) (column B₃) | A1 | Since maximin = minimax \(= -3\), stable solution exists |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Adam plays \(A_2\), Bill plays \(B_3\) | B1 | Both required for mark |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Value \(= +3\) (since pay-off matrix is for Adam, Bill's value is \(+3\)) | B1 | Accept \(3\) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(C_2\), since \(C_1\) dominates \(C_2\): every entry in \(C_1\) is greater than corresponding entry in \(C_2\) (i.e. \(3>4\)... ) | B1 | Must give reason: \(C_1\) dominates \(C_2\) since \(3>-2\) wait — this is pay-off for Roza so computer wants to minimise; \(C_2\) is dominated by \(C_1\) since \(4>3\) and \(-1>-2\)... Accept correct dominance argument |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| If computer plays \(C_1\): \(E(C_1) = 3p + (-2)(1-p) = 5p - 2\) | B1 |
| If computer plays \(C_3\): \(E(C_3) = -3p + 5(1-p) = 5 - 8p\) | B1 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Set \(5p - 2 = 5 - 8p\) | M1 | Equating the two expressions |
| \(13p = 7\), so \(p = \frac{7}{13}\) | A1 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(E = 5\left(\frac{7}{13}\right) - 2 = \frac{35}{13} - \frac{26}{13} = \frac{9}{13}\) | B1 | Follow through from their \(p\) |
## Question 4(a):
**(i) Show stable solution:**
| Find row minima: A₁: $-6$, A₂: $-3$, A₃: $-5$, A₄: $-4$ | M1 | Method of finding row minima and column maxima |
|---|---|---|
| Maximin $= -3$ (row A₂) | A1 | |
| Find column maxima: B₁: $5$, B₂: $4$, B₃: $-3$ | | |
| Minimax $= -3$ (column B₃) | A1 | Since maximin = minimax $= -3$, stable solution exists |
**(ii) Play-safe strategies:**
| Adam plays $A_2$, Bill plays $B_3$ | B1 | Both required for mark |
**(iii) Value of game for Bill:**
| Value $= +3$ (since pay-off matrix is for Adam, Bill's value is $+3$) | B1 | Accept $3$ |
---
## Question 4(b):
**(i) Strategy computer should never play:**
| $C_2$, since $C_1$ dominates $C_2$: every entry in $C_1$ is greater than corresponding entry in $C_2$ (i.e. $3>4$... ) | B1 | Must give reason: $C_1$ dominates $C_2$ since $3>-2$ wait — this is pay-off for Roza so computer wants to minimise; $C_2$ is dominated by $C_1$ since $4>3$ and $-1>-2$... Accept correct dominance argument |
**(ii) Expected gains for Roza:**
| If computer plays $C_1$: $E(C_1) = 3p + (-2)(1-p) = 5p - 2$ | B1 | |
|---|---|---|
| If computer plays $C_3$: $E(C_3) = -3p + 5(1-p) = 5 - 8p$ | B1 | |
**(iii) Value of $p$ to maximise expected gains:**
| Set $5p - 2 = 5 - 8p$ | M1 | Equating the two expressions |
| $13p = 7$, so $p = \frac{7}{13}$ | A1 | |
**(iv) Value of game for Roza:**
| $E = 5\left(\frac{7}{13}\right) - 2 = \frac{35}{13} - \frac{26}{13} = \frac{9}{13}$ | B1 | Follow through from their $p$ |
4
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Two people, Adam and Bill, play a zero-sum game. The game is represented by the following pay-off matrix for Adam.
4
\item Roza plays a different zero-sum game against a computer. The game is represented by the following pay-off matrix for Roza.
\end{enumerate}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{AQA D2 2012 Q4 [11]}}