AQA D2 2012 June — Question 4 11 marks

Exam BoardAQA
ModuleD2 (Decision Mathematics 2)
Year2012
SessionJune
Marks11
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicDynamic Programming
TypeZero-sum game optimal mixed strategy
DifficultyStandard +0.3 Zero-sum game theory with pay-off matrices is a standard D2 topic requiring systematic application of dominance principles and/or the minimax theorem. While it involves multiple steps, the procedures are algorithmic and well-practiced, making it slightly above average difficulty but not requiring novel insight.
Spec7.08a Pay-off matrix: zero-sum games7.08b Dominance: reduce pay-off matrix7.08c Pure strategies: play-safe strategies and stable solutions

4
  1. Two people, Adam and Bill, play a zero-sum game. The game is represented by the following pay-off matrix for Adam. 4
  2. Roza plays a different zero-sum game against a computer. The game is represented by the following pay-off matrix for Roza.

Question 4(a):
(i) Show stable solution:
AnswerMarks Guidance
Find row minima: A₁: \(-6\), A₂: \(-3\), A₃: \(-5\), A₄: \(-4\)M1 Method of finding row minima and column maxima
Maximin \(= -3\) (row A₂)A1
Find column maxima: B₁: \(5\), B₂: \(4\), B₃: \(-3\)
Minimax \(= -3\) (column B₃)A1 Since maximin = minimax \(= -3\), stable solution exists
(ii) Play-safe strategies:
AnswerMarks Guidance
Adam plays \(A_2\), Bill plays \(B_3\)B1 Both required for mark
(iii) Value of game for Bill:
AnswerMarks Guidance
Value \(= +3\) (since pay-off matrix is for Adam, Bill's value is \(+3\))B1 Accept \(3\)
Question 4(b):
(i) Strategy computer should never play:
AnswerMarks Guidance
\(C_2\), since \(C_1\) dominates \(C_2\): every entry in \(C_1\) is greater than corresponding entry in \(C_2\) (i.e. \(3>4\)... )B1 Must give reason: \(C_1\) dominates \(C_2\) since \(3>-2\) wait — this is pay-off for Roza so computer wants to minimise; \(C_2\) is dominated by \(C_1\) since \(4>3\) and \(-1>-2\)... Accept correct dominance argument
(ii) Expected gains for Roza:
AnswerMarks
If computer plays \(C_1\): \(E(C_1) = 3p + (-2)(1-p) = 5p - 2\)B1
If computer plays \(C_3\): \(E(C_3) = -3p + 5(1-p) = 5 - 8p\)B1
(iii) Value of \(p\) to maximise expected gains:
AnswerMarks Guidance
Set \(5p - 2 = 5 - 8p\)M1 Equating the two expressions
\(13p = 7\), so \(p = \frac{7}{13}\)A1
(iv) Value of game for Roza:
AnswerMarks Guidance
\(E = 5\left(\frac{7}{13}\right) - 2 = \frac{35}{13} - \frac{26}{13} = \frac{9}{13}\)B1 Follow through from their \(p\)
## Question 4(a):

**(i) Show stable solution:**

| Find row minima: A₁: $-6$, A₂: $-3$, A₃: $-5$, A₄: $-4$ | M1 | Method of finding row minima and column maxima |
|---|---|---|
| Maximin $= -3$ (row A₂) | A1 | |
| Find column maxima: B₁: $5$, B₂: $4$, B₃: $-3$ | | |
| Minimax $= -3$ (column B₃) | A1 | Since maximin = minimax $= -3$, stable solution exists |

**(ii) Play-safe strategies:**

| Adam plays $A_2$, Bill plays $B_3$ | B1 | Both required for mark |

**(iii) Value of game for Bill:**

| Value $= +3$ (since pay-off matrix is for Adam, Bill's value is $+3$) | B1 | Accept $3$ |

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## Question 4(b):

**(i) Strategy computer should never play:**

| $C_2$, since $C_1$ dominates $C_2$: every entry in $C_1$ is greater than corresponding entry in $C_2$ (i.e. $3>4$... ) | B1 | Must give reason: $C_1$ dominates $C_2$ since $3>-2$ wait — this is pay-off for Roza so computer wants to minimise; $C_2$ is dominated by $C_1$ since $4>3$ and $-1>-2$... Accept correct dominance argument |

**(ii) Expected gains for Roza:**

| If computer plays $C_1$: $E(C_1) = 3p + (-2)(1-p) = 5p - 2$ | B1 | |
|---|---|---|
| If computer plays $C_3$: $E(C_3) = -3p + 5(1-p) = 5 - 8p$ | B1 | |

**(iii) Value of $p$ to maximise expected gains:**

| Set $5p - 2 = 5 - 8p$ | M1 | Equating the two expressions |
| $13p = 7$, so $p = \frac{7}{13}$ | A1 | |

**(iv) Value of game for Roza:**

| $E = 5\left(\frac{7}{13}\right) - 2 = \frac{35}{13} - \frac{26}{13} = \frac{9}{13}$ | B1 | Follow through from their $p$ |
4
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Two people, Adam and Bill, play a zero-sum game. The game is represented by the following pay-off matrix for Adam.

4
\item Roza plays a different zero-sum game against a computer. The game is represented by the following pay-off matrix for Roza.
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{AQA D2 2012 Q4 [11]}}