| Exam Board | AQA |
|---|---|
| Module | S1 (Statistics 1) |
| Year | 2007 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 13 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Linear regression |
| Type | Calculate y on x from raw data table |
| Difficulty | Moderate -0.8 This is a standard S1 regression question requiring routine calculations (finding means, Sxx, Sxy, then a and b) and textbook interpretations (explanatory variable, gradient meaning, extrapolation issues). All parts follow predictable patterns with no novel problem-solving required, making it easier than average for A-level. |
| Spec | 5.09a Dependent/independent variables5.09b Least squares regression: concepts5.09c Calculate regression line5.09d Linear coding: effect on regression |
| \(\boldsymbol { x }\) | 16 | 20 | 24 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 |
| \(\boldsymbol { y }\) | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| Time taken depends upon temperature | B1 | OE; not \(x\) set values |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(b\) (gradient) \(= -0.0873\) to \(-0.087\) | B2 | AWFW; \((-0.0872\dot{7})\) |
| \(b\) (gradient) \(= -0.09\) to \(-0.08\) | (B1) | AWFW; \(-8.73^{-02} \Rightarrow\) B0 |
| \(a\) (intercept) \(= 5.94\) to \(5.96\) | B2 | AWFW; \((5.950\dot{9})\) |
| \(a\) (intercept) \(= 5.6\) to \(6.1\) | (B1) | AWFW |
| Attempt at \(\sum x\), \(\sum x^2\), \(\sum y\) and \(\sum xy\) or attempt at \(S_{xx}\) and \(S_{xy}\) | (M1) | 396, 16016, 30.9 and 958.8; 1760 and \(-153.6\) |
| Attempt at correct formula for \(b\) | (m1) | — |
| \(b = -0.0873\) to \(-0.087\) | (A1) | AWFW |
| \(a = 5.94\) to \(5.96\) | (A1) | AWFW |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| Each \(1°C\) rise in temperature results in an (average) decrease of \(0.087\) m (5 s) in time taken for pellets to dissolve | B1 B1 | Quantified rise in \(x\) (results in) decrease in \(y\); OE |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(a\) is \(y\)-value at \(x = 0\) at which water is solid/ice/frozen so pellets cannot dissolve | B1 B1 | Indication that it is \(y\) at \(x = 0\); Mention of solid or ice or frozen |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| When \(x = 30\): \(y = 3.3\) to \(3.4\) | B2 | AWFW; \((3.332\dot{7})\) |
| \(y = 2.9\) to \(3.7\) | (B1) | AWFW |
| If B0, use of their equation with \(x = 30\) | (M1) | — |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| When \(x = 75\): \(y < 0\) or negative | B1 | OE |
| which is impossible | ↑Dep↑ B1 | OE; not extrapolation |
# Question 5:
## Part (a)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| Time taken depends upon temperature | B1 | OE; **not** $x$ set values |
## Part (b)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| $b$ (gradient) $= -0.0873$ to $-0.087$ | B2 | AWFW; $(-0.0872\dot{7})$ |
| $b$ (gradient) $= -0.09$ to $-0.08$ | (B1) | AWFW; $-8.73^{-02} \Rightarrow$ B0 |
| $a$ (intercept) $= 5.94$ to $5.96$ | B2 | AWFW; $(5.950\dot{9})$ |
| $a$ (intercept) $= 5.6$ to $6.1$ | (B1) | AWFW |
| Attempt at $\sum x$, $\sum x^2$, $\sum y$ and $\sum xy$ **or** attempt at $S_{xx}$ and $S_{xy}$ | (M1) | 396, 16016, 30.9 and 958.8; 1760 and $-153.6$ |
| Attempt at correct formula for $b$ | (m1) | — |
| $b = -0.0873$ to $-0.087$ | (A1) | AWFW |
| $a = 5.94$ to $5.96$ | (A1) | AWFW |
## Part (c)(i)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| Each $1°C$ rise in temperature results in an (average) decrease of $0.087$ m (5 s) in time taken for pellets to dissolve | B1 B1 | Quantified rise in $x$ (results in) decrease in $y$; OE |
## Part (c)(ii)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| $a$ is $y$-value at $x = 0$ at which water is solid/ice/frozen so pellets cannot dissolve | B1 B1 | Indication that it is $y$ at $x = 0$; Mention of solid or ice or frozen |
## Part (d)(i)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| When $x = 30$: $y = 3.3$ to $3.4$ | B2 | AWFW; $(3.332\dot{7})$ |
| $y = 2.9$ to $3.7$ | (B1) | AWFW |
| If B0, use of their equation with $x = 30$ | (M1) | — |
## Part (d)(ii)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| When $x = 75$: $y < 0$ or negative | B1 | OE |
| which is impossible | ↑Dep↑ B1 | OE; **not** extrapolation |
---
5 Bob, a gardener, measures the time taken, $y$ minutes, for 60 grams of weedkiller pellets to dissolve in 10 litres of water at different set temperatures, $x ^ { \circ } \mathrm { C }$. His results are shown in the table.
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | }
\hline
$\boldsymbol { x }$ & 16 & 20 & 24 & 28 & 32 & 36 & 40 & 44 & 48 & 52 & 56 \\
\hline
$\boldsymbol { y }$ & 4.7 & 4.3 & 3.8 & 3.5 & 3.0 & 2.7 & 2.4 & 2.0 & 1.8 & 1.6 & 1.1 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item State why the explanatory variable is temperature.
\item Calculate the equation of the least squares regression line $y = a + b x$.
\item \begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Interpret, in the context of this question, your value for $b$.
\item Explain why no sensible practical interpretation can be given for your value of $a$.
\end{enumerate}\item \begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Estimate the time taken to dissolve 60 grams of weedkiller pellets in 10 litres of water at $30 ^ { \circ } \mathrm { C }$.
\item Show why the equation cannot be used to make a valid estimate of the time taken to dissolve 60 grams of weedkiller pellets in 10 litres of water at $75 ^ { \circ } \mathrm { C }$. (2 marks)
\end{enumerate}\end{enumerate}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{AQA S1 2007 Q5 [13]}}