Edexcel S1 2013 June — Question 1 13 marks

Exam BoardEdexcel
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2013
SessionJune
Marks13
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicLinear regression
TypeCalculate y on x from raw data table
DifficultyModerate -0.8 This is a standard S1 linear regression question with all summary statistics provided. Students follow a routine algorithm: calculate Sth and Shh using given summations, compute correlation coefficient, find regression line coefficients, and interpret. No problem-solving or novel insight required—purely mechanical application of formulas from the formula booklet.
Spec5.08a Pearson correlation: calculate pmcc5.08b Linear coding: effect on pmcc5.09a Dependent/independent variables5.09b Least squares regression: concepts5.09c Calculate regression line5.09e Use regression: for estimation in context

  1. A meteorologist believes that there is a relationship between the height above sea level, \(h \mathrm {~m}\), and the air temperature, \(t ^ { \circ } \mathrm { C }\). Data is collected at the same time from 9 different places on the same mountain. The data is summarised in the table below.
\(h\)140011002608409005501230100770
\(t\)310209101352416
[You may assume that \(\sum h = 7150 , \sum t = 110 , \sum h ^ { 2 } = 7171500 , \sum t ^ { 2 } = 1716\), \(\sum t h = 64980\) and \(\mathrm { S } _ { t t } = 371.56\) ]
  1. Calculate \(\mathrm { S } _ { t h }\) and \(\mathrm { S } _ { h h }\). Give your answers to 3 significant figures.
  2. Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient for this data.
  3. State whether or not your value supports the use of a regression equation to predict the air temperature at different heights on this mountain. Give a reason for your answer.
  4. Find the equation of the regression line of \(t\) on \(h\) giving your answer in the form \(t = a + b h\).
  5. Interpret the value of \(b\).
  6. Estimate the difference in air temperature between a height of 500 m and a height of 1000 m .

Question 1:
Part (a)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
\(S_{th} = 64980 - \frac{7150 \times 110}{9} = -22408.9...\) → \(-\mathbf{22400}\)M1 A1 M1 for at least one correct expression (condone transcription error). 1st A1 for \(S_{hh}\) = awrt 1 490 000 or \(S_{th}\) = awrt −22 400
\(S_{hh} = 7171500 - \frac{7150^2}{9} = 1491222.2...\) → \(\mathbf{1\,490\,000}\)A1 2nd A1 for \(S_{th} = -22400\) AND \(S_{hh} = 1490000\) only. Allow no labels but mis-labelling \(S_{th}\) as \(S_{hh}\) etc loses final A1
Part (b)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
\(r = \frac{-22408.9}{\sqrt{1491222 \times 371.56}} = -0.95200068...\) → awrt \(-\mathbf{0.952}\)M1 A1 M1 for attempt at correct formula. Allow minor transcription errors of 2 or 3 digits. Must have their \(S_{hh}\), \(S_{th}\) and given \(S_{tt}\) (3sf or better) in correct places. Condone missing "−". Award M1A0 for awrt −0.95 with no expression seen. M0 for \(\frac{64980}{\sqrt{7171500 \times 7.864}}\)
Part (c)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
Yes as \(r\) is close to \(-1\) (if \(-1 < r < -0.5\)) or Yes as \(r\) is close to 1 (if \(1 > r > 0.5\))B1ft Must comment on supporting AND state: high/strong/clear (negative or positive) correlation. "Points lie close to a straight line" is B0 since there is no evidence of this. If \(-0.5 \leq r \leq 0.5\) allow "no since \(r\) is close to 0". If \(
Part (d)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
\(b = \frac{-22408.9}{1491222.2} = -0.015027...\) (allow \(\frac{-56}{3725}\)) → awrt \(-0.015\)M1 A1 1st M1 for correct expression for \(b\). Follow through their \(S_{hh}\) & \(S_{th}\). Condone missing "−". 1st A1 for awrt −0.015 or allow exact fraction from rounded values
\(a = \frac{110}{9} - \text{"their } b\text{"} \times \frac{7150}{9} = (12.2 - -0.015 \times 794.4) = 24.1604...\) so \(t = \mathbf{24.2 - 0.015h}\)M1, A1 2nd M1 for correct method for \(a\). Follow through their value of \(b\). 2nd A1 for correct equation for \(t\) and \(h\) with \(a\) = awrt 24.2 and \(b\) = awrt −0.015. No fractions
Part (e)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
0.015 is the drop in temp (in \({}^0\)C), for every 1(m) increase in height above sea levelB1 Must mention \(h\) (or height) and \(t\) (or temperature) and their (1 sf) value of \(b\) in a correct comment
Part (f)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
Change \(= ("24.2 - 0.015" \times 500) - ("24.2 - 0.015" \times 1000)\) or \(500 \times "0.015"\) \(= \pm 7.5\) (awrt \(\pm 7.5\)) (only ft a value < 100)M1 A1ft M1 for correct expression seen based on their equation. Allow transcription error of 1 digit. If answer is \(500 \times\) their \(b\) to 2sf and \(< 100\) (M1A1). If answer is \(500 \times\) their \(b\) to 2sf and \(\geq 100\) (M1A0)
# Question 1:

## Part (a)
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $S_{th} = 64980 - \frac{7150 \times 110}{9} = -22408.9...$ → $-\mathbf{22400}$ | M1 A1 | M1 for at least one correct expression (condone transcription error). 1st A1 for $S_{hh}$ = awrt 1 490 000 or $S_{th}$ = awrt −22 400 |
| $S_{hh} = 7171500 - \frac{7150^2}{9} = 1491222.2...$ → $\mathbf{1\,490\,000}$ | A1 | 2nd A1 for $S_{th} = -22400$ AND $S_{hh} = 1490000$ only. Allow no labels but mis-labelling $S_{th}$ as $S_{hh}$ etc loses final A1 |

## Part (b)
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $r = \frac{-22408.9}{\sqrt{1491222 \times 371.56}} = -0.95200068...$ → awrt $-\mathbf{0.952}$ | M1 A1 | M1 for attempt at correct formula. Allow minor transcription errors of 2 or 3 digits. Must have their $S_{hh}$, $S_{th}$ and given $S_{tt}$ (3sf or better) in correct places. Condone missing "−". Award M1A0 for awrt −0.95 with no expression seen. M0 for $\frac{64980}{\sqrt{7171500 \times 7.864}}$ |

## Part (c)
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Yes as $r$ is close to $-1$ (if $-1 < r < -0.5$) or Yes as $r$ is close to 1 (if $1 > r > 0.5$) | B1ft | Must comment on supporting AND state: high/strong/clear (negative or positive) correlation. "Points lie close to a straight line" is B0 since there is no evidence of this. If $-0.5 \leq r \leq 0.5$ allow "no since $r$ is close to 0". If $|r| > 1$ award B0 |

## Part (d)
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $b = \frac{-22408.9}{1491222.2} = -0.015027...$ (allow $\frac{-56}{3725}$) → awrt $-0.015$ | M1 A1 | 1st M1 for correct expression for $b$. Follow through their $S_{hh}$ & $S_{th}$. Condone missing "−". 1st A1 for awrt −0.015 or allow exact fraction from rounded values |
| $a = \frac{110}{9} - \text{"their } b\text{"} \times \frac{7150}{9} = (12.2 - -0.015 \times 794.4) = 24.1604...$ so $t = \mathbf{24.2 - 0.015h}$ | M1, A1 | 2nd M1 for correct method for $a$. Follow through their value of $b$. 2nd A1 for correct equation for $t$ and $h$ with $a$ = awrt 24.2 and $b$ = awrt −0.015. No fractions |

## Part (e)
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| 0.015 is the drop in temp (in ${}^0$C), for every 1(m) increase in height above sea level | B1 | Must mention $h$ (or height) and $t$ (or temperature) and their (1 sf) value of $b$ in a correct comment |

## Part (f)
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Change $= ("24.2 - 0.015" \times 500) - ("24.2 - 0.015" \times 1000)$ or $500 \times "0.015"$ $= \pm 7.5$ (awrt $\pm 7.5$) (only ft a value < 100) | M1 A1ft | M1 for correct expression seen based on their equation. Allow transcription error of 1 digit. If answer is $500 \times$ their $b$ to 2sf and $< 100$ (M1A1). If answer is $500 \times$ their $b$ to 2sf and $\geq 100$ (M1A0) |

---
\begin{enumerate}
  \item A meteorologist believes that there is a relationship between the height above sea level, $h \mathrm {~m}$, and the air temperature, $t ^ { \circ } \mathrm { C }$. Data is collected at the same time from 9 different places on the same mountain. The data is summarised in the table below.
\end{enumerate}

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | }
\hline
$h$ & 1400 & 1100 & 260 & 840 & 900 & 550 & 1230 & 100 & 770 \\
\hline
$t$ & 3 & 10 & 20 & 9 & 10 & 13 & 5 & 24 & 16 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}

[You may assume that $\sum h = 7150 , \sum t = 110 , \sum h ^ { 2 } = 7171500 , \sum t ^ { 2 } = 1716$, $\sum t h = 64980$ and $\mathrm { S } _ { t t } = 371.56$ ]\\
(a) Calculate $\mathrm { S } _ { t h }$ and $\mathrm { S } _ { h h }$. Give your answers to 3 significant figures.\\
(b) Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient for this data.\\
(c) State whether or not your value supports the use of a regression equation to predict the air temperature at different heights on this mountain. Give a reason for your answer.\\
(d) Find the equation of the regression line of $t$ on $h$ giving your answer in the form $t = a + b h$.\\
(e) Interpret the value of $b$.\\
(f) Estimate the difference in air temperature between a height of 500 m and a height of 1000 m .\\

\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S1 2013 Q1 [13]}}