CAIE FP2 2017 Specimen — Question 8 10 marks

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleFP2 (Further Pure Mathematics 2)
Year2017
SessionSpecimen
Marks10
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicChi-squared goodness of fit
TypeChi-squared goodness of fit: Poisson
DifficultyChallenging +1.2 This is a standard chi-squared goodness of fit test with Poisson distribution requiring calculation of mean, expected frequencies, combining cells for small frequencies, and hypothesis testing. While it involves multiple steps and careful bookkeeping, it follows a well-defined algorithmic procedure taught explicitly in Further Maths statistics with no novel problem-solving required.
Spec5.06b Fit prescribed distribution: chi-squared test

8 The number of goals scored by a certain football team was recorded for each of 100 matches, and the results are summarised in the following table.
Number of goals0123456 or more
Frequency121631251330
Fit a Poisson distribution to the data, and test its goodness of fit at the 5\% significance level.

Question 8:
Find mean of sample data [for use in Poisson distribution]:
AnswerMarks
\(\lambda = 220/100 = 2.2\)B1
State null hypothesis:
AnswerMarks
\(H_0\): Poisson distribution fits data *or* \(\lambda = 2.2\)B1
Find expected values \(\frac{100\lambda^r e^{-\lambda}}{r!}\) (to 1 d.p.):
AnswerMarks Guidance
\(11.080\quad 24.377\quad 26.814\quad 19.664\quad 10.8151\quad 4.759\quad 2.491\)M1 A1 (ignore incorrect final value here for M1)
Combine last two cells so that exp. value \(\geq 5\):
\(O_i: 3\)
AnswerMarks
\(E_i: 7.25\)M1*
Calculate value of \(\chi^2\) (to 2 d.p.; A1 dep M1*):
AnswerMarks Guidance
\(\chi^2 = 0.076 + 2.879 + 0.653 + 1.448 + 0.441 + 2.491 = 7.99\)M1 A1 (allow 7.95 if 1 d.p. exp. values used)
State or use consistent tabular value (to 3 s.f.):
5 cells: \(\chi^2_{3,\,0.95} = 7.815\)
6 cells: \(\chi^2_{4,\,0.95} = 9.488\) (correct)
AnswerMarks
7 cells: \(\chi^2_{5,\,0.95} = 11.07\)B1
State or imply valid method for conclusion:
AnswerMarks
Accept \(H_0\) if \(\chi^2 <\) tabular valueM1
Conclusion (AEF, requires both values correct):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Distribution fits *or* \(\lambda = 2.2\)DA1 Not combining cells [so \(\chi^2 = 8.64\)] can earn B1 B1 M1 A1 M0 M1 B1 M1 (max 7)
Total: 10 marks
## Question 8:

Find mean of sample data [for use in Poisson distribution]:

$\lambda = 220/100 = 2.2$ | B1 |

State null hypothesis:

$H_0$: Poisson distribution fits data *or* $\lambda = 2.2$ | B1 |

Find expected values $\frac{100\lambda^r e^{-\lambda}}{r!}$ (to 1 d.p.):

$11.080\quad 24.377\quad 26.814\quad 19.664\quad 10.8151\quad 4.759\quad 2.491$ | M1 A1 | (ignore incorrect final value here for M1)

Combine last two cells so that exp. value $\geq 5$:

$O_i: 3$

$E_i: 7.25$ | M1* |

Calculate value of $\chi^2$ (to 2 d.p.; A1 dep M1*):

$\chi^2 = 0.076 + 2.879 + 0.653 + 1.448 + 0.441 + 2.491 = 7.99$ | M1 A1 | (allow 7.95 if 1 d.p. exp. values used)

State or use consistent tabular value (to 3 s.f.):

5 cells: $\chi^2_{3,\,0.95} = 7.815$

6 cells: $\chi^2_{4,\,0.95} = 9.488$ (correct)

7 cells: $\chi^2_{5,\,0.95} = 11.07$ | B1 |

State or imply valid method for conclusion:

Accept $H_0$ if $\chi^2 <$ tabular value | M1 |

Conclusion (AEF, requires both values correct):

Distribution fits *or* $\lambda = 2.2$ | DA1 | Not combining cells [so $\chi^2 = 8.64$] can earn B1 B1 M1 A1 M0 M1 B1 M1 (max 7)

**Total: 10 marks**
8 The number of goals scored by a certain football team was recorded for each of 100 matches, and the results are summarised in the following table.

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | l | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | }
\hline
Number of goals & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 or more \\
\hline
Frequency & 12 & 16 & 31 & 25 & 13 & 3 & 0 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}

Fit a Poisson distribution to the data, and test its goodness of fit at the 5\% significance level.\\

\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE FP2 2017 Q8 [10]}}