SPS SPS FM Statistics (SPS FM Statistics) 2020 October

Question 1
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  1. \(\mathrm { E } ( a X + b Y + c ) = a \mathrm { E } ( X ) + b \mathrm { E } ( Y ) + c\),
  2. if \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent then \(\operatorname { Var } ( a X + b Y + c ) = a ^ { 2 } \operatorname { Var } ( X ) + b ^ { 2 } \operatorname { Var } ( Y )\).
\section*{Discrete distributions} \(X\) is a random variable taking values \(x _ { i }\) in a discrete distribution with \(\mathrm { P } \left( X = x _ { i } \right) = p _ { i }\)
Expectation: \(\mu = \mathrm { E } ( X ) = \sum x _ { i } p _ { i }\)
Variance: \(\sigma ^ { 2 } = \operatorname { Var } ( X ) = \sum \left( x _ { i } - \mu \right) ^ { 2 } p _ { i } = \sum x _ { i } ^ { 2 } p _ { i } - \mu ^ { 2 }\)
\(P ( X = x )\)E \(( X )\)\(\operatorname { Var } ( X )\)
Binomial \(\mathrm { B } ( n , p )\)\(\binom { n } { x } p ^ { x } ( 1 - p ) ^ { n - x }\)\(n p\)\(n p ( 1 - p )\)
Uniform distribution over \(1,2 , \ldots , n , \mathrm { U } ( n )\)\(\frac { 1 } { n }\)\(\frac { n + 1 } { 2 }\)\(\frac { 1 } { 12 } \left( n ^ { 2 } - 1 \right)\)
Geometric distribution Geo(p)\(( 1 - p ) ^ { x - 1 } p\)\(\frac { 1 } { p }\)\(\frac { 1 - p } { p ^ { 2 } }\)
Poisson \(\operatorname { Po } ( \lambda )\)\(e ^ { - \lambda } \frac { \lambda ^ { x } } { x ! }\)\(\lambda\)\(\lambda\)
\section*{Continuous distributions} \(X\) is a continuous random variable with probability density function (p.d.f.) \(\mathrm { f } ( x )\)
Expectation: \(\mu = \mathrm { E } ( X ) = \int x \mathrm { f } ( x ) \mathrm { d } x\)
Variance: \(\sigma ^ { 2 } = \operatorname { Var } ( X ) = \int ( x - \mu ) ^ { 2 } \mathrm { f } ( x ) \mathrm { d } x = \int x ^ { 2 } \mathrm { f } ( x ) \mathrm { d } x - \mu ^ { 2 }\)
Cumulative distribution function \(\mathrm { F } ( x ) = \mathrm { P } ( X \leq x ) = \int _ { - \infty } ^ { x } \mathrm { f } ( t ) \mathrm { d } t\)
p.d.f.E ( \(X\) )\(\operatorname { Var } ( X )\)
Continuous uniform distribution over [ \(a , b\) ]\(\frac { 1 } { b - a }\)\(\frac { 1 } { 2 } ( a + b )\)\(\frac { 1 } { 12 } ( b - a ) ^ { 2 }\)
Exponential\(\lambda \mathrm { e } ^ { - \lambda x }\)\(\frac { 1 } { \lambda }\)\(\frac { 1 } { \lambda ^ { 2 } }\)
Normal \(N \left( \mu , \sigma ^ { 2 } \right)\)\(\frac { 1 } { \sigma \sqrt { 2 \pi } } \mathrm { e } ^ { - \frac { 1 } { 2 } \left( \frac { x - \mu } { \sigma } \right) ^ { 2 } }\)\(\mu\)\(\sigma ^ { 2 }\)
\section*{Percentage points of the normal distribution} If \(Z\) has a normal distribution with mean 0 and variance 1 then, for each value of \(p\), the table gives the value of \(z\) such that \(P ( Z \leq z ) = p\).
\(p\)0.750.900.950.9750.990.9950.99750.9990.9995
\(z\)0.6741.2821.6451.9602.3262.5762.8073.0903.291
  1. The random variable \(X\) is uniformly distributed over the interval \([ - 1,5 ]\).
    a. Sketch the probability density function \(f ( x )\) of \(X\).
    b. State the value of \(\mathrm { P } ( X = 2 )\)
Find
c. \(\mathrm { E } ( X )\)
d. \(\operatorname { Var } ( X )\)
Question 2
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2. The independent random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) are such that \(\mathrm { E } ( X ) = 20 , \mathrm { E } ( Y ) = 10\), \(\operatorname { Var } ( X ) = 5\) and \(\operatorname { Var } ( Y ) = 4\). Find:
a. \(\mathrm { E } ( 2 X - Y )\)
b. \(\operatorname { Var } ( 2 X - Y )\)
Question 3
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3. A survey is carried out into the length of time for which customers wait for a response on a telephone helpline. A statistician who is analysing the results of the survey starts by modelling the waiting time, \(x\) minutes, by an exponential distribution with probability density function $$f ( x ) = \left\{ \begin{array} { c c } \lambda e ^ { - \lambda x } & x \geq 0
0 & x < 0 \end{array} \right.$$ The mean waiting time is found to be 5 minutes.
a. State the value of \(\lambda\).
b. Use the model to calculate the probability that a customer has to wait longer that 20 minutes for a response.
Question 4
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4. The number of A-grades, \(X\), achieved in total by students at Lowkey School in their Mathematical examinations each year can be modelled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of 3 .
a. Determine the probability that, during a 5 -year period, students at Lowkey School achieve a total of more than 18 A-grades in their Mathematics examinations.
b. The number of A-grades, \(Y\), achieved in total by students at Lowkey School in their English examinations each year can be modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean of 7 .
i. Determine the probability that, during a year, students at Lowkey School achieve a total of fewer than 15 A-grades in their Mathematics and English examinations.
ii. What assumption did you make in answering part (b)(i)?
[0pt] [Total 7 marks]
Question 5
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5. The continuous random variable \(X\) has probability density function given by $$f ( x ) = \begin{cases} \frac { 4 } { 3 x ^ { 3 } } & 1 \leq x < 2
\frac { 1 } { 12 } x & 2 \leq x \leq 4
0 & \text { otherwise } \end{cases}$$ a) Find the upper quartile of \(X\).
b) Find \(\mathrm { P } \left( \frac { 1 } { 2 } < X \leq 3 \right)\)
c) Find the value of \(a\) for which \(\mathrm { E } \left( X ^ { 2 } \right) = a \mathrm { E } ( X )\).
Question 6
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6. The continuous random variable \(X\) has (cumulative) distribution function given by $$F ( x ) = \left\{ \begin{array} { c c } 0 & x < 1
1 - \frac { 1 } { x ^ { 4 } } & x \geq 1 \end{array} \right.$$ a. Show that the probability density function of \(Y\), where \(Y = \frac { 1 } { X ^ { 2 } }\), is given by $$g ( y ) = \left\{ \begin{array} { c c } 2 y & 0 < y \leq 1
0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array} \right.$$ b. Find \(\mathrm { E } ( \sqrt [ 3 ] { Y } )\).
Question 7
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7. The partially completed table below summarises the times taken by 120 job applicants to complete a task.
Time, \(t\) (minutes)\(5 < t \leq 7\)\(7 < t \leq 10\)\(10 < t \leq 14\)\(14 < t \leq 18\)\(18 < t \leq 30\)
Frequency102351
A histogram is drawn. The bar representing the \(5 < t \leq 7\) has a width of 1 cm and a height of 5 cm .
  1. Given that the bar representing the group \(14 < t \leq 18\) has a height of 4 cm , find the frequency of this group.
    (2)
  2. Showing your working, estimate the mean time taken by the 120 job applicants.
    (3) The lower quartile of the times is 9.6 minutes and the upper quartile of the times is 15.5 minutes.
    For these data, an outlier is classified as any value greater than \(Q _ { 3 } + 1.5 \times\) IQR .
  3. Showing your working, explain whether or not any of the times taken by these 120 job applicants might be classified as outliers.
    (2) Candidates with the fastest \(5 \%\) of times for the task are given interviews.
  4. Estimate the time taken by a job applicant, below which they might be given an interview.
    (2)
Question 8
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8. A company has a customer services call centre. The company believes that the time taken to complete a call to the call centre may be modelled by a normal distribution with mean 16 minutes and standard deviation \(\sigma\) minutes. Given that \(10 \%\) of the calls take longer than 22 minutes,
  1. show that, to 3 significant figures, the value of \(\sigma\) is 4.68
  2. Calculate the percentage of calls that take less than 13 minutes. A supervisor in the call centre claims that the mean call time is less than 16 minutes. He collects data on his own call times.
    • \(20 \%\) of the supervisor's calls take more than 17 minutes to complete.
    • \(10 \%\) of the supervisor's calls take less than 8 minutes to complete.
    Assuming that the time the supervisor takes to complete a call may be modelled by a normal distribution,
  3. estimate the mean and the standard deviation of the time taken by the supervisor to complete a call.
  4. State, giving a reason, whether or not the calculations in part (c) support the supervisor's claim. \section*{9.} A fast food company has a scratchcard competition. It has ordered scratchcards for the competition and requested that \(45 \%\) of the scratchcards be winning scratchcards. A random sample of 20 of the scratchcards is collected from each of 8 of the fast food company's stores. Assuming that \(45 \%\) of the scratchcards are winning scratchcards, calculate the probability that in at least 2 of the 8 stores, 12 or more of the scratchcards are winning scratchcards.
    [0pt] [Total 5 marks] END OF TEST