Single time period probability

Questions asking for P(X = k), P(X ≤ k), P(X ≥ k), or P(a ≤ X < b) for a Poisson variable over a single given time period with no scaling required.

13 questions · Moderate -0.6

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CAIE S1 2017 June Q5
7 marks Moderate -0.3
5 Eggs are sold in boxes of 20. Cracked eggs occur independently and the mean number of cracked eggs in a box is 1.4 .
  1. Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen box contains exactly 2 cracked eggs.
  2. Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen box contains at least 1 cracked egg.
  3. A shop sells \(n\) of these boxes of eggs. Find the smallest value of \(n\) such that the probability of there being at least 1 cracked egg in each box sold is less than 0.01 .
CAIE S2 2020 Specimen Q3
10 marks Moderate -0.5
3 The number of calls received at a small call centre has a Poisson distribution with mean 2.4 calls per 5-minute period.
  1. Find the probability of exactly 4 calls in an 8 -minute period.
  2. Find the probability of at least 3 calls in a 3-minute period.
    The number of calls received at a large call centre has a Poisson distribution with mean 41 calls per 5-minute period.
  3. Use an approximating distribution to find the probability that the number of calls received in a 5 -minute period is between 41 and 59 inclusive.
CAIE S2 2018 November Q1
3 marks Easy -1.2
1 The random variable \(X\) has the distribution \(\operatorname { Po } ( 2.3 )\). Find \(\mathrm { P } ( 2 \leq X < 5 )\).
CAIE S2 2016 November Q1
3 marks Easy -1.2
1 The random variable \(X\) has the distribution \(\operatorname { Po } ( 3.5 )\). Find \(\mathrm { P } ( X < 3 )\).
OCR S2 2009 January Q3
8 marks Moderate -0.3
3 The number of incidents of radio interference per hour experienced by a certain listener is modelled by a random variable with distribution \(\operatorname { Po } ( 0.42 )\).
  1. Find the probability that the number of incidents of interference in one randomly chosen hour is
    1. 0 ,
    2. exactly 1 .
    3. Find the probability that the number of incidents in a randomly chosen 5-hour period is greater than 3.
    4. One hundred hours of listening are monitored and the numbers of 1 -hour periods in which 0,1 , \(2 , \ldots\) incidents of interference are experienced are noted. A bar chart is drawn to represent the results. Without any further calculations, sketch the shape that you would expect for the bar chart. (There is no need to use an exact numerical scale on the frequency axis.)
OCR MEI Paper 2 2019 June Q8
9 marks Standard +0.3
8 A team called "The Educated Guess" enter a weekly quiz. If they win the quiz in a particular week, the probability that they will win the following week is 0.4 , but if they do not win, the probability that they will win the following week is 0.2 . In week 4 The Educated Guess won the quiz.
  1. Calculate the probability that The Educated Guess will win the quiz in week 6. Every week the same 20 quiz teams, each with 6 members, take part in a quiz. Every member of every team buys a raffle ticket. Five winning tickets are drawn randomly, without replacement. Alf, who is a member of one of the teams, takes part every week.
  2. Calculate the probability that, in a randomly chosen week, Alf wins a raffle prize.
  3. Find the smallest number of weeks after which it will be \(95 \%\) certain that Alf has won at least one raffle prize.
Edexcel S2 2007 January Q2
5 marks Moderate -0.8
2. The random variable \(J\) has a Poisson distribution with mean 4.
  1. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( J \geqslant 10 )\). The random variable \(K\) has a binomial distribution with parameters \(n = 25 , p = 0.27\).
  2. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( K \leqslant 1 )\).
Edexcel S2 Q1
7 marks Easy -1.2
  1. (a) The random variable \(X\) follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 1.4
Find \(\mathrm { P } ( X \leq 3 )\).
(b) The random variable \(Y\) follows a binomial distribution such that \(Y \sim \mathrm {~B} ( 20,0.6 )\). Find \(\mathrm { P } ( Y \leq 12 )\).
(4 marks)
AQA Further AS Paper 2 Statistics 2018 June Q2
1 marks Moderate -0.8
2 The discrete random variable \(Y\) has a Poisson distribution with mean 3 Find the value of \(\mathrm { P } ( Y > 1 )\) to three significant figures.
Circle your answer. \(0.149 \quad 0.199 \quad 0.801 \quad 0.950\)
AQA Further Paper 3 Statistics 2024 June Q1
1 marks Easy -1.8
1 The random variable \(X\) has a Poisson distribution with mean 16 Find the standard deviation of \(X\) Circle your answer.
4
8
16
256
OCR MEI Further Statistics Major Specimen Q7
11 marks Standard +0.3
7 A newspaper reports that the average price of unleaded petrol in the UK is 110.2 p per litre. The price, in pence, of a litre of unleaded petrol at a random sample of 15 petrol stations in Yorkshire is shown below together with some output from software used to analyse the data.
116.9114.9110.9113.9114.9
117.9112.999.9114.9103.9
123.9105.7108.9102.9112.7
\begin{table}[h]
\(| l |\)Statistics
n15
Mean111.6733
\(\sigma\)6.1877
s6.4048
\(\Sigma \mathrm { x }\)1675.1
\(\Sigma \mathrm { x } ^ { 2 }\)187638.31
Min99.9
Q 1105.7
Median112.9
Q 3114.9
Max123.9
\captionsetup{labelformat=empty} \caption{Fig. 7.1}
\end{table}
\(n\)15
Kolmogorov-Smirnov
test
\(p > 0.15\)
Null hypothesis
The data can be modelled
by a Normal distribution
Alternative hypothesis
The data cannot be
modelled by a Normal
distribution
  1. Select a suitable hypothesis test to investigate whether there is any evidence that the average price of unleaded petrol in Yorkshire is different from 110.2 p. Justify your choice of test.
  2. Conduct the hypothesis test at the \(5 \%\) level of significance.
AQA S2 2010 June Q5
13 marks Standard +0.3
The number of telephone calls received, during an \(8\)-hour period, by an IT company that request an urgent visit by an engineer may be modelled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of \(7\).
  1. Determine the probability that, during a given \(8\)-hour period, the number of telephone calls received that request an urgent visit by an engineer is:
    1. at most \(5\); [1 mark]
    2. exactly \(7\); [2 marks]
    3. at least \(5\) but fewer than \(10\). [3 marks]
  2. Write down the distribution for the number of telephone calls received each hour that request an urgent visit by an engineer. [1 mark]
  3. The IT company has \(4\) engineers available for urgent visits and it may be assumed that each of these engineers takes exactly \(1\) hour for each such visit. At \(10\)am on a particular day, all \(4\) engineers are available for urgent visits.
    1. State the maximum possible number of telephone calls received between \(10\)am and \(11\)am that request an urgent visit and for which an engineer is immediately available. [1 mark]
    2. Calculate the probability that at \(11\)am an engineer will not be immediately available to make an urgent visit. [4 marks]
  4. Give a reason why a Poisson distribution may not be a suitable model for the number of telephone calls per hour received by the IT company that request an urgent visit by an engineer. [1 mark]
Edexcel S2 Q2
9 marks Moderate -0.8
An ornithologist believes that on average 4.2 different species of bird will visit a bird table in a rural garden when 50 g of breadcrumbs are spread on it.
  1. Suggest a suitable distribution for modelling the number of species that visit a bird table meeting these criteria. [1 mark]
  2. Explain why the parameter used with this model may need to be changed if
    1. 50 g of nuts are used instead of breadcrumbs,
    2. 100g of breadcrumbs are used.
    [2 marks]
A bird table in a rural garden has 50 g of breadcrumbs spread on it. Find the probability that
  1. exactly 6 different species visit the table, [2 marks]
  2. more than 2 different species visit the table. [4 marks]