AQA S2 2010 June — Question 5 13 marks

Exam BoardAQA
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2010
SessionJune
Marks13
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicPoisson distribution
TypeSingle time period probability
DifficultyStandard +0.3 This is a straightforward S2 Poisson distribution question requiring standard calculations from tables/calculator (parts a-b), simple scaling of the parameter (part b), and basic reasoning about capacity constraints (part c). Part (c)(ii) requires recognizing that more than 4 calls means no engineer available, which is a simple complement calculation. The final part asks for a standard criticism of Poisson assumptions. All techniques are routine for S2 with no novel problem-solving required, making it slightly easier than average.
Spec5.02i Poisson distribution: random events model5.02j Poisson formula: P(X=x) = e^(-lambda)*lambda^x/x!5.02k Calculate Poisson probabilities5.02l Poisson conditions: for modelling

The number of telephone calls received, during an \(8\)-hour period, by an IT company that request an urgent visit by an engineer may be modelled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of \(7\).
  1. Determine the probability that, during a given \(8\)-hour period, the number of telephone calls received that request an urgent visit by an engineer is:
    1. at most \(5\); [1 mark]
    2. exactly \(7\); [2 marks]
    3. at least \(5\) but fewer than \(10\). [3 marks]
  2. Write down the distribution for the number of telephone calls received each hour that request an urgent visit by an engineer. [1 mark]
  3. The IT company has \(4\) engineers available for urgent visits and it may be assumed that each of these engineers takes exactly \(1\) hour for each such visit. At \(10\)am on a particular day, all \(4\) engineers are available for urgent visits.
    1. State the maximum possible number of telephone calls received between \(10\)am and \(11\)am that request an urgent visit and for which an engineer is immediately available. [1 mark]
    2. Calculate the probability that at \(11\)am an engineer will not be immediately available to make an urgent visit. [4 marks]
  4. Give a reason why a Poisson distribution may not be a suitable model for the number of telephone calls per hour received by the IT company that request an urgent visit by an engineer. [1 mark]

Question 5:
5
Question 5:
5
The number of telephone calls received, during an $8$-hour period, by an IT company that request an urgent visit by an engineer may be modelled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of $7$.

\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Determine the probability that, during a given $8$-hour period, the number of telephone calls received that request an urgent visit by an engineer is:
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item at most $5$; [1 mark]
\item exactly $7$; [2 marks]
\item at least $5$ but fewer than $10$. [3 marks]
\end{enumerate}
\item Write down the distribution for the number of telephone calls received each hour that request an urgent visit by an engineer. [1 mark]
\item The IT company has $4$ engineers available for urgent visits and it may be assumed that each of these engineers takes exactly $1$ hour for each such visit.

At $10$am on a particular day, all $4$ engineers are available for urgent visits.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item State the maximum possible number of telephone calls received between $10$am and $11$am that request an urgent visit and for which an engineer is immediately available. [1 mark]
\item Calculate the probability that at $11$am an engineer will not be immediately available to make an urgent visit. [4 marks]
\end{enumerate}
\item Give a reason why a Poisson distribution may not be a suitable model for the number of telephone calls per hour received by the IT company that request an urgent visit by an engineer. [1 mark]
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{AQA S2 2010 Q5 [13]}}