| Exam Board | Edexcel |
|---|---|
| Module | FS2 (Further Statistics 2) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 12 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Z-tests (known variance) |
| Type | Known variance (z-distribution) |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 This is a straightforward application of standard hypothesis testing procedures with known variance. Part (a) is a routine confidence interval calculation, part (b) tests understanding of the Central Limit Theorem, and part (c) is a standard two-sample z-test. All steps follow textbook methods with no novel insight required, though it's slightly above average difficulty due to being a two-sample test in Further Statistics rather than basic single-sample inference. |
| Spec | 5.05c Hypothesis test: normal distribution for population mean5.05d Confidence intervals: using normal distribution |
| Sample size | Mean weight of random sample (grams) | Known population standard deviation of weights (grams) | |
| Yellow tennis balls | 120 | 57.2 | 1.2 |
| White tennis balls | 140 | 56.9 | 0.9 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(z = 1.96\) | B1 | Understanding sample mean modelled by Normal with \(z = 1.96\); allow 1.959... or better |
| \(57.2 \pm 1.96 \times \frac{1.2}{\sqrt{120}}\) | M1 | Setting up confidence interval |
| \((56.985..., \ 57.414...)\) awrt \((57.0, \ 57.4)\) | A1 | Must come from correct \(z\) value \(= 1.96\) or better |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(\bar{Y} - \bar{W} \sim N\ldots\) | M1 | Translating context into Normal distribution model |
| Mean \(= 0\), Variance \(= \frac{1.2^2}{120} + \frac{0.9^2}{140}\) | A1A1 | A1 correct mean; A1 correct variance (allow awrt 0.0178 or exact fraction \(\frac{249}{14000}\)) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| Central limit theorem applies so we do not need to know the distributions of \(Y\) and \(W\). Allows us to assume that sample means (\(\bar{Y}\) and \(\bar{W}\)) are normally distributed. | B1 | Correct explanation about distributions of \(Y\) and \(W\) or \(\bar{Y}\) and \(\bar{W}\) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(H_0: \mu_{y(ellow)} = \mu_{w(hite)}\), \(\quad H_1: \mu_{y(ellow)} > \mu_{w(hite)}\) | B1 | Both hypotheses correct with correct notation; if using \(\mu_x\) and \(\mu_y\) these must be defined |
| \(z = \frac{57.2 - 56.9}{\sqrt{\frac{1.2^2}{120} + \frac{0.9^2}{140}}} = 2.24949...\) | M1, A1 | M1: Standardising using normal distribution test statistic for difference of two means with known variance; A1: awrt 2.25 |
| \(CV = 1.6449\) or \(p\text{-value} = 0.01224...\) awrt \(0.01\) | B1 | Correct critical value 1.6449 or better; or \(p = 0.01\) or better from correct working |
| Reject \(H_0\). Significant evidence to support Jamie's claim/mean weight of the population of yellow tennis balls is greater than mean weight of the population of white tennis balls. | A1 | Correct inference in context; do not allow contradictory statements e.g. 'Do not reject \(H_0\), so Jamie's claim is supported' |
# Question 2:
## Part 2(a):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $z = 1.96$ | B1 | Understanding sample mean modelled by Normal with $z = 1.96$; allow 1.959... or better |
| $57.2 \pm 1.96 \times \frac{1.2}{\sqrt{120}}$ | M1 | Setting up confidence interval |
| $(56.985..., \ 57.414...)$ awrt $(57.0, \ 57.4)$ | A1 | Must come from correct $z$ value $= 1.96$ or better |
## Part 2(b)(i):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $\bar{Y} - \bar{W} \sim N\ldots$ | M1 | Translating context into Normal distribution model |
| Mean $= 0$, Variance $= \frac{1.2^2}{120} + \frac{0.9^2}{140}$ | A1A1 | A1 correct mean; A1 correct variance (allow awrt 0.0178 or exact fraction $\frac{249}{14000}$) |
## Part 2(b)(ii):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Central limit theorem applies so we do not need to know the distributions of $Y$ and $W$. Allows us to assume that sample means ($\bar{Y}$ and $\bar{W}$) are normally distributed. | B1 | Correct explanation about distributions of $Y$ and $W$ or $\bar{Y}$ and $\bar{W}$ |
## Part 2(c):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $H_0: \mu_{y(ellow)} = \mu_{w(hite)}$, $\quad H_1: \mu_{y(ellow)} > \mu_{w(hite)}$ | B1 | Both hypotheses correct with correct notation; if using $\mu_x$ and $\mu_y$ these must be defined |
| $z = \frac{57.2 - 56.9}{\sqrt{\frac{1.2^2}{120} + \frac{0.9^2}{140}}} = 2.24949...$ | M1, A1 | M1: Standardising using normal distribution test statistic for difference of two means with known variance; A1: awrt 2.25 |
| $CV = 1.6449$ or $p\text{-value} = 0.01224...$ awrt $0.01$ | B1 | Correct critical value 1.6449 or better; or $p = 0.01$ or better from correct working |
| Reject $H_0$. Significant evidence to support Jamie's claim/mean weight of the population of yellow tennis balls is greater than mean weight of the population of white tennis balls. | A1 | Correct inference in context; do not allow contradictory statements e.g. 'Do not reject $H_0$, so Jamie's claim is supported' |
---
\begin{enumerate}
\item A factory produces yellow tennis balls and white tennis balls. Independent samples, one of yellow tennis balls and one of white tennis balls, are taken. The table shows information about the weights of the yellow tennis balls, $Y$ grams, and the weights of the white tennis balls, $W$ grams.
\end{enumerate}
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|l|}
\hline
& Sample size & Mean weight of random sample (grams) & Known population standard deviation of weights (grams) \\
\hline
Yellow tennis balls & 120 & 57.2 & 1.2 \\
\hline
White tennis balls & 140 & 56.9 & 0.9 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
(a) Find a 95\% confidence interval for the mean weight of yellow tennis balls.
Jamie claims that the mean weight of the population of yellow tennis balls is greater than the mean weight of the population of white tennis balls. A test of Jamie's claim is carried out.\\
(b) (i) Specify the approximate distribution of $\bar { Y } - \bar { W }$ under the null hypothesis of the test.\\
(ii) Explain the relevance of the large sample sizes to your answer to part (i).\\
(c) Complete the hypothesis test using a $5 \%$ level of significance. You should state your hypotheses and the value of your test statistic clearly.
\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel FS2 2022 Q2 [12]}}