| Exam Board | Edexcel |
|---|---|
| Module | FD2 AS (Further Decision 2 AS) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 14 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Dynamic Programming |
| Type | Zero-sum game optimal mixed strategy |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.8 This is a multi-part game theory question requiring: (a) checking for saddle points using row minima/column maxima, (b) matrix reduction, (c) solving a 2×2 game for optimal mixed strategy using probability equations and graphical/algebraic methods, and (d) working backwards from a given game value to find an unknown payoff. While systematic, it requires understanding of multiple game theory concepts, careful algebraic manipulation, and reverse-engineering in part (d), making it moderately challenging but still within standard Further Maths scope. |
| Spec | 7.08a Pay-off matrix: zero-sum games7.08b Dominance: reduce pay-off matrix7.08c Pure strategies: play-safe strategies and stable solutions7.08d Nash equilibrium: identification and interpretation7.08e Mixed strategies: optimal strategy using equations or graphical method7.08f Mixed strategies via LP: reformulate as linear programming problem |
| \multirow{2}{*}{} | Meera | |||
| Option X | Option Y | Option Z | ||
| \multirow{4}{*}{Haruki} | Option A | 4 | -2 | -5 |
| Option B | 1 | 4 | -3 | |
| Option C | -1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Option D | -4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
| Row minima: \(-5, -3, -1, -4\); max is \(-1\) | M1 | Finding row minimums and column maximums; condone one error |
| Column maxima: \(4, 6, 3\); min is \(3\); Row(maximin) \(\neq\) Col(minimax) therefore game is not stable | A1 | Row maximin \(\neq\) col minimax so not stable |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
| Correct reduced table for Meera (2 rows only): Option X: \(-4, -1, 1, 4\); Option Z: \(5, 3, -1, -3\) | B1 | Correct reduced table for Meera (2 rows only) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
| If \(H\) plays Option A, \(M\)'s gains are \(-4p + 5(1-p) = 5-9p\); If \(H\) plays Option B, \(M\)'s gains are \(-p + 3(1-p) = 3-4p\); If \(H\) plays Option C, \(M\)'s gains are \(p + (-1)(1-p) = -1+2p\); If \(H\) plays Option D, \(M\)'s gains are \(4p + (-3)(1-p) = -3+7p\) | M1 A1 | Setting up four expressions in terms of \(p\); all four expressions correct and fully simplified |
| Correct graph with axes correct, at least one line correctly drawn | M1 A1 | Axes correct, at least one line correctly drawn; correct graph with all lines drawn with ruler, scale clear |
| \(5-9p = -1+2p \Rightarrow p = \frac{6}{11}\) | A1 | Using graph to obtain correct probability; correct value of \(p\) interpreted in context |
| Meera should play Option X with probability \(\frac{6}{11}\) and Option Z with probability \(\frac{5}{11}\) | A1 | 3.2a |
| (ii) Value to Meera \(= -1 + 2 \times \frac{6}{11} = \frac{1}{11}\); Value to Haruki \(= \frac{-1}{11}\) | B1ft | Correct value of game to Haruki (ft their \(p\)) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
| Haruki never plays B and D | B1 | CAO — B and D |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
| Value of game \(= 0\) | B1 | States value \(= 0\); may be implied by forming equation in \(p\) or \(q = 0\) |
| When \(H\) plays Option A, \(M\)'s gain: \(5 - 9p = 0 \Rightarrow p = \frac{5}{9}\) | M1 | Considers Option A and obtains value for \(p\) (alt: considers \(H\) and obtains value for \(q\)) |
| When \(H\) plays Option C, \(M\)'s gain: \(-\frac{5k}{9} - \frac{4}{9} = 0\) | M1 | Considers Option C and sets up equation in \(k\); dependent on previous M mark |
| \(k = -\frac{4}{5}\) | A1 | CAO \(\left(-\frac{4}{5}\right)\) |
# Question 3:
## Part (a):
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Row minima: $-5, -3, -1, -4$; max is $-1$ | M1 | Finding row minimums and column maximums; condone one error |
| Column maxima: $4, 6, 3$; min is $3$; Row(maximin) $\neq$ Col(minimax) therefore game is not stable | A1 | Row maximin $\neq$ col minimax so not stable |
## Part (b):
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Correct reduced table for Meera (2 rows only): Option X: $-4, -1, 1, 4$; Option Z: $5, 3, -1, -3$ | B1 | Correct reduced table for Meera (2 rows only) |
## Part (c):
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| If $H$ plays Option A, $M$'s gains are $-4p + 5(1-p) = 5-9p$; If $H$ plays Option B, $M$'s gains are $-p + 3(1-p) = 3-4p$; If $H$ plays Option C, $M$'s gains are $p + (-1)(1-p) = -1+2p$; If $H$ plays Option D, $M$'s gains are $4p + (-3)(1-p) = -3+7p$ | M1 A1 | Setting up four expressions in terms of $p$; all four expressions correct and fully simplified |
| Correct graph with axes correct, at least one line correctly drawn | M1 A1 | Axes correct, at least one line correctly drawn; correct graph with all lines drawn with ruler, scale clear |
| $5-9p = -1+2p \Rightarrow p = \frac{6}{11}$ | A1 | Using graph to obtain correct probability; correct value of $p$ interpreted in context |
| Meera should play Option X with probability $\frac{6}{11}$ and Option Z with probability $\frac{5}{11}$ | A1 | 3.2a |
| (ii) Value to Meera $= -1 + 2 \times \frac{6}{11} = \frac{1}{11}$; Value to Haruki $= \frac{-1}{11}$ | B1ft | Correct value of game to Haruki (ft their $p$) |
## Part (c)(iii):
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Haruki never plays B and D | B1 | CAO — B and D |
## Part (d):
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Value of game $= 0$ | B1 | States value $= 0$; may be implied by forming equation in $p$ or $q = 0$ |
| When $H$ plays Option A, $M$'s gain: $5 - 9p = 0 \Rightarrow p = \frac{5}{9}$ | M1 | Considers Option A and obtains value for $p$ (alt: considers $H$ and obtains value for $q$) |
| When $H$ plays Option C, $M$'s gain: $-\frac{5k}{9} - \frac{4}{9} = 0$ | M1 | Considers Option C and sets up equation in $k$; dependent on previous M mark |
| $k = -\frac{4}{5}$ | A1 | CAO $\left(-\frac{4}{5}\right)$ |
---
3. Haruki and Meera play a zero-sum game. The game is represented by the following pay-off matrix for Haruki.
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|l|l|}
\hline
\multicolumn{2}{|c|}{\multirow{2}{*}{}} & \multicolumn{3}{|c|}{Meera} \\
\hline
& & Option X & Option Y & Option Z \\
\hline
\multirow{4}{*}{Haruki} & Option A & 4 & -2 & -5 \\
\hline
& Option B & 1 & 4 & -3 \\
\hline
& Option C & -1 & 6 & 1 \\
\hline
& Option D & -4 & 5 & 3 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Determine whether the game has a stable solution.
Option Y for Meera is now removed.
\item Write down the reduced pay-off matrix for Meera.
\item \begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Given that Meera plays Option X with probability $p$, determine her best strategy.
\item State the value of the game to Haruki.
\item State which option(s) Haruki should never play.
The number of points scored by Haruki when he plays Option C and Meera plays Option X changes from - 1 to $k$
Given that the value of the game is now the same for both players,
\end{enumerate}\item determine the value of $k$. You must make your method and working clear.
\end{enumerate}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel FD2 AS 2024 Q3 [14]}}