Edexcel FD2 AS 2023 June — Question 3 14 marks

Exam BoardEdexcel
ModuleFD2 AS (Further Decision 2 AS)
Year2023
SessionJune
Marks14
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicDynamic Programming
TypeZero-sum game optimal mixed strategy
DifficultyStandard +0.3 This is a standard textbook exercise in game theory requiring routine application of dominance checking, graphical method for mixed strategies, and value calculation. While it has multiple parts, each step follows a well-defined algorithm taught in FD2 with no novel insight required—slightly easier than average A-level maths.
Spec7.08a Pay-off matrix: zero-sum games7.08b Dominance: reduce pay-off matrix7.08c Pure strategies: play-safe strategies and stable solutions7.08d Nash equilibrium: identification and interpretation7.08e Mixed strategies: optimal strategy using equations or graphical method7.08f Mixed strategies via LP: reformulate as linear programming problem

3. A two-person zero-sum game is represented by the following pay-off matrix for player \(A\).
\(B\) plays X\(B\) plays Y
\(A\) plays Q2-2
\(A\) plays R-15
A plays S34
\(A\) plays T02
    1. Show that this game is stable.
    2. State the value of this game to player \(B\). Option S is removed from player A's choices and the reduced game, with option S removed, is no longer stable.
  1. Write down the reduced pay-off matrix for player \(B\). Let \(B\) play option X with probability \(p\) and option Y with probability \(1 - p\).
  2. Use a graphical method to find the optimal value of \(p\) and hence find the best strategy for player \(B\) in the reduced game.
    1. Find the value of the reduced game to player \(A\).
    2. State which option player \(A\) should never play in the reduced game.
    3. Hence find the best strategy for player \(A\) in the reduced game.

Question 3:
Part (a)(i)
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMark Guidance
Row minima: \(-2, -1, 3, 0\); max is \(3\). Column maxima: \(3, 5\); min is \(3\)M1 Finding row minimums and column maximums; condone one error
Row(maximin) \(=\) Col(minimax) \(= 3\), therefore game is stableA1 Dependent on all 6 correct values; must see two 3's explicitly compared; cao \((-3)\) is A0
Part (a)(ii)
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMark Guidance
Value of game to player \(B\) is \(-3\)A1 cao
Part (b)
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMark Guidance
\(\begin{pmatrix} -2 & 1 & 0 \\ 2 & -5 & -2 \end{pmatrix}\)B1 cao; must be reduced game with option S removed
Part (c)
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMark Guidance
If \(A\) plays Q: \(B\)'s gains \(= -2p + 2(1-p) = 2 - 4p\)M1 Setting up three expressions in terms of \(p\)
If \(A\) plays R: \(B\)'s gains \(= p + (-5)(1-p) = -5 + 6p\)A1 All three expressions correctly simplified
If \(A\) plays T: \(B\)'s gains \(= (-2)(1-p) = -2 + 2p\)
At least two lines correctly drawnM1 If values on at least one vertical axis not given, lines must be in right position relative to each other
Completely correct graph with correct intersection points at ends where \(p=0\) and \(p=1\)A1 Lines must not extend past \(p<0\) and/or \(p>1\)
\(2 - 4p = -5 + 6p \Rightarrow p = \frac{7}{10}\)A1 Using graph with 3 lines to obtain correct probability
\(B\) plays option X with probability \(\frac{7}{10}\) and option Y with probability \(\frac{3}{10}\)A1ft Must refer to 'play' and associated probabilities
Part (d)(i)
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMark Guidance
\(6 \times \frac{7}{10} - 5 = -\frac{4}{5}\); value of game to player \(A\) is \(\frac{4}{5}\)B1 cao (\(\frac{4}{5}\) or \(0.8\))
Part (d)(ii)
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMark Guidance
Player \(A\) should never play option TB1 cao
Part (d)(iii)
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMark Guidance
If \(A\) plays Q with probability \(q\) and R with probability \(1-q\): \(2q + (-1)(1-q) = \frac{4}{5}\)M1 Setting up linear equation with \(V(A)\) from (d)(i) using either \(2q+(-1)(1-q)\) or \(-2q+5(1-q)\)
\(q = \frac{3}{5}\); \(A\) plays Q with probability \(\frac{3}{5}\) and R with probability \(\frac{2}{5}\) (play S and T never)A1 Must refer to 'play' and associated probabilities
# Question 3:

## Part (a)(i)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| Row minima: $-2, -1, 3, 0$; max is $3$. Column maxima: $3, 5$; min is $3$ | M1 | Finding row minimums and column maximums; condone one error |
| Row(maximin) $=$ Col(minimax) $= 3$, therefore game is stable | A1 | Dependent on all 6 correct values; must see two 3's explicitly compared; cao $(-3)$ is A0 |

## Part (a)(ii)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| Value of game to player $B$ is $-3$ | A1 | cao |

## Part (b)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| $\begin{pmatrix} -2 & 1 & 0 \\ 2 & -5 & -2 \end{pmatrix}$ | B1 | cao; must be reduced game with option S removed |

## Part (c)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| If $A$ plays Q: $B$'s gains $= -2p + 2(1-p) = 2 - 4p$ | M1 | Setting up three expressions in terms of $p$ |
| If $A$ plays R: $B$'s gains $= p + (-5)(1-p) = -5 + 6p$ | A1 | All three expressions correctly simplified |
| If $A$ plays T: $B$'s gains $= (-2)(1-p) = -2 + 2p$ | — | — |
| At least two lines correctly drawn | M1 | If values on at least one vertical axis not given, lines must be in right position relative to each other |
| Completely correct graph with correct intersection points at ends where $p=0$ and $p=1$ | A1 | Lines must not extend past $p<0$ and/or $p>1$ |
| $2 - 4p = -5 + 6p \Rightarrow p = \frac{7}{10}$ | A1 | Using graph with 3 lines to obtain correct probability |
| $B$ plays option X with probability $\frac{7}{10}$ and option Y with probability $\frac{3}{10}$ | A1ft | Must refer to 'play' and associated probabilities |

## Part (d)(i)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| $6 \times \frac{7}{10} - 5 = -\frac{4}{5}$; value of game to player $A$ is $\frac{4}{5}$ | B1 | cao ($\frac{4}{5}$ or $0.8$) |

## Part (d)(ii)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| Player $A$ should never play option T | B1 | cao |

## Part (d)(iii)
| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| If $A$ plays Q with probability $q$ and R with probability $1-q$: $2q + (-1)(1-q) = \frac{4}{5}$ | M1 | Setting up linear equation with $V(A)$ from (d)(i) using either $2q+(-1)(1-q)$ or $-2q+5(1-q)$ |
| $q = \frac{3}{5}$; $A$ plays Q with probability $\frac{3}{5}$ and R with probability $\frac{2}{5}$ (play S and T never) | A1 | Must refer to 'play' and associated probabilities |
3. A two-person zero-sum game is represented by the following pay-off matrix for player $A$.

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|}
\hline
 & $B$ plays X & $B$ plays Y \\
\hline
$A$ plays Q & 2 & -2 \\
\hline
$A$ plays R & -1 & 5 \\
\hline
A plays S & 3 & 4 \\
\hline
$A$ plays T & 0 & 2 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item \begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Show that this game is stable.
\item State the value of this game to player $B$.

Option S is removed from player A's choices and the reduced game, with option S removed, is no longer stable.
\end{enumerate}\item Write down the reduced pay-off matrix for player $B$.

Let $B$ play option X with probability $p$ and option Y with probability $1 - p$.
\item Use a graphical method to find the optimal value of $p$ and hence find the best strategy for player $B$ in the reduced game.
\item \begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Find the value of the reduced game to player $A$.
\item State which option player $A$ should never play in the reduced game.
\item Hence find the best strategy for player $A$ in the reduced game.
\end{enumerate}\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel FD2 AS 2023 Q3 [14]}}