OCR MEI Further Statistics Major 2024 June — Question 5 10 marks

Exam BoardOCR MEI
ModuleFurther Statistics Major (Further Statistics Major)
Year2024
SessionJune
Marks10
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicCentral limit theorem
TypePaired sample confidence interval
DifficultyStandard +0.3 This is a straightforward application of CLT to paired samples with standard confidence interval interpretation. Parts (a)-(c) test basic understanding of CLT, hypothesis testing via CI, and standard error calculation—all routine for Further Statistics. Part (d) requires recalculating a 95% CI but involves simple arithmetic. No novel insight or complex reasoning required; slightly easier than average A-level due to being mostly conceptual explanation rather than technical computation.
Spec5.05a Sample mean distribution: central limit theorem5.05c Hypothesis test: normal distribution for population mean5.05d Confidence intervals: using normal distribution

5 A researcher is investigating whether doing yoga has any effect on quality of sleep in older people. The researcher selects a random sample of 40 older people, who then complete a yoga course. Before they start the course and again at the end, the 40 people fill in a questionnaire which measures their perceived sleep quality. The higher the score, the better is the perceived quality of sleep. The researcher uses software to produce a 90\% confidence interval for the difference in mean sleep quality (sleep quality after the course minus sleep quality before the course). The output from the software is shown below. Z Estimate of a Mean Confidence level □ 0.9 Sample
Mean0.586
\(s\)2.14
40
Result
Z Estimate of a Mean
Mean0.586
s2.14
SE0.3384
N40
Lower limit0.029
Upper limit1.143
Interval\(0.586 \pm 0.557\)
  1. Explain why the confidence interval is based on the Normal distribution even though the distribution of the population of differences is not known.
  2. Explain whether the confidence interval suggests that the mean sleep qualities before and after completing a yoga course are different.
  3. In the output from the software, SE stands for 'standard error'.
    1. Explain what standard error is.
    2. Show how the standard error was calculated in this case.
  4. A colleague of the researcher suggests that the confidence level should have been \(95 \%\) rather than \(90 \%\). Determine whether this would have made a difference to your answer to part (b).

Question 5:
AnswerMarks Guidance
5(a) The sample is large
And the central limit theorem states that, for sufficiently large
sample size, the sample means are approximately Normally
AnswerMarks
distributedB1
B1
AnswerMarks
[2]2.4
2.4Allow ‘n > 20’ or greater value than 20
Do not allow 40 > 30 oe
Must mention central limit theorem and sample mean for
second mark
Do not allow ‘parent population is Normally distributed’ or
‘sample data is Normally distributed’ or anything else
wrong for second B1 even if above is mentioned
AnswerMarks Guidance
5(b) Confidence interval does not contain zero …
…which suggests that there is a difference in the mean sleep
AnswerMarks
score.B1*
DB1
AnswerMarks
[2]3.4
2.2bDo not allow simply ‘All values are positive’
There must be some uncertainty in the answer.
Do not allow ‘higher’ or ‘lower’
Condone ‘change’ rather than ‘difference’
AnswerMarks Guidance
5(c) (i)
[1]1.2 Do not allow standard deviation divided by square root of
sample size
Allow standard deviation for 𝑋̅. Condone 𝑥̅
AnswerMarks Guidance
5(c) (ii)
( = 0.3384)
AnswerMarks Guidance
√40B1
[1]1.1
5(d) Interval is given by
0.586 ± 1.96
× 0.3384
–0.077 < µ < 1.249 interval limits are 0.586±0.6633
So in this case the interval does contain zero so this suggests
AnswerMarks
that there may be no difference in the mean sleep scoreM1
M1
A1
B1
AnswerMarks
[4]3.4
1.1
1.1
AnswerMarks
2.2bAccept using t-value of 2.02(2691…)
Accept based on t-distribution (-0.098, 1.270)
Condone if only mention lower limit. Allow 0.586−0.6633
‘Yes it has made a difference since it does contain zero’ oe
Do not FT from incorrect part (b) and do not award if
incorrect statement seen.
Question 5:
5 | (a) | The sample is large
And the central limit theorem states that, for sufficiently large
sample size, the sample means are approximately Normally
distributed | B1
B1
[2] | 2.4
2.4 | Allow ‘n > 20’ or greater value than 20
Do not allow 40 > 30 oe
Must mention central limit theorem and sample mean for
second mark
Do not allow ‘parent population is Normally distributed’ or
‘sample data is Normally distributed’ or anything else
wrong for second B1 even if above is mentioned
5 | (b) | Confidence interval does not contain zero …
…which suggests that there is a difference in the mean sleep
score. | B1*
DB1
[2] | 3.4
2.2b | Do not allow simply ‘All values are positive’
There must be some uncertainty in the answer.
Do not allow ‘higher’ or ‘lower’
Condone ‘change’ rather than ‘difference’
5 | (c) | (i) | Standard error is the standard deviation of the sample mean | B1
[1] | 1.2 | Do not allow standard deviation divided by square root of
sample size
Allow standard deviation for 𝑋̅. Condone 𝑥̅
5 | (c) | (ii) | 2.14
( = 0.3384)
√40 | B1
[1] | 1.1
5 | (d) | Interval is given by
0.586 ± 1.96
× 0.3384
–0.077 < µ < 1.249 interval limits are 0.586±0.6633
So in this case the interval does contain zero so this suggests
that there may be no difference in the mean sleep score | M1
M1
A1
B1
[4] | 3.4
1.1
1.1
2.2b | Accept using t-value of 2.02(2691…)
Accept based on t-distribution (-0.098, 1.270)
Condone if only mention lower limit. Allow 0.586−0.6633
‘Yes it has made a difference since it does contain zero’ oe
Do not FT from incorrect part (b) and do not award if
incorrect statement seen.
5 A researcher is investigating whether doing yoga has any effect on quality of sleep in older people. The researcher selects a random sample of 40 older people, who then complete a yoga course. Before they start the course and again at the end, the 40 people fill in a questionnaire which measures their perceived sleep quality. The higher the score, the better is the perceived quality of sleep.

The researcher uses software to produce a 90\% confidence interval for the difference in mean sleep quality (sleep quality after the course minus sleep quality before the course). The output from the software is shown below.

Z Estimate of a Mean

Confidence level □ 0.9

Sample

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ r l }
Mean & 0.586 \\
$s$ & 2.14 \\
 & 40 \\
\end{tabular}
\end{center}

Result\\
Z Estimate of a Mean

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ l l }
Mean & 0.586 \\
s & 2.14 \\
SE & 0.3384 \\
N & 40 \\
Lower limit & 0.029 \\
Upper limit & 1.143 \\
Interval & $0.586 \pm 0.557$ \\
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Explain why the confidence interval is based on the Normal distribution even though the distribution of the population of differences is not known.
\item Explain whether the confidence interval suggests that the mean sleep qualities before and after completing a yoga course are different.
\item In the output from the software, SE stands for 'standard error'.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Explain what standard error is.
\item Show how the standard error was calculated in this case.
\end{enumerate}\item A colleague of the researcher suggests that the confidence level should have been $95 \%$ rather than $90 \%$.

Determine whether this would have made a difference to your answer to part (b).
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR MEI Further Statistics Major 2024 Q5 [10]}}