| Exam Board | OCR MEI |
|---|---|
| Module | Further Statistics Major (Further Statistics Major) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 10 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Central limit theorem |
| Type | Paired sample confidence interval |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 This is a straightforward application of CLT to paired samples with standard confidence interval interpretation. Parts (a)-(c) test basic understanding of CLT, hypothesis testing via CI, and standard error calculation—all routine for Further Statistics. Part (d) requires recalculating a 95% CI but involves simple arithmetic. No novel insight or complex reasoning required; slightly easier than average A-level due to being mostly conceptual explanation rather than technical computation. |
| Spec | 5.05a Sample mean distribution: central limit theorem5.05c Hypothesis test: normal distribution for population mean5.05d Confidence intervals: using normal distribution |
| Mean | 0.586 |
| \(s\) | 2.14 |
| 40 |
| Mean | 0.586 |
| s | 2.14 |
| SE | 0.3384 |
| N | 40 |
| Lower limit | 0.029 |
| Upper limit | 1.143 |
| Interval | \(0.586 \pm 0.557\) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | (a) | The sample is large |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| distributed | B1 |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| [2] | 2.4 |
| 2.4 | Allow ‘n > 20’ or greater value than 20 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | (b) | Confidence interval does not contain zero … |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| score. | B1* |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| [2] | 3.4 |
| 2.2b | Do not allow simply ‘All values are positive’ |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | (c) | (i) |
| [1] | 1.2 | Do not allow standard deviation divided by square root of |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | (c) | (ii) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| √40 | B1 | |
| [1] | 1.1 | |
| 5 | (d) | Interval is given by |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| that there may be no difference in the mean sleep score | M1 |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| [4] | 3.4 |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| 2.2b | Accept using t-value of 2.02(2691…) |
Question 5:
5 | (a) | The sample is large
And the central limit theorem states that, for sufficiently large
sample size, the sample means are approximately Normally
distributed | B1
B1
[2] | 2.4
2.4 | Allow ‘n > 20’ or greater value than 20
Do not allow 40 > 30 oe
Must mention central limit theorem and sample mean for
second mark
Do not allow ‘parent population is Normally distributed’ or
‘sample data is Normally distributed’ or anything else
wrong for second B1 even if above is mentioned
5 | (b) | Confidence interval does not contain zero …
…which suggests that there is a difference in the mean sleep
score. | B1*
DB1
[2] | 3.4
2.2b | Do not allow simply ‘All values are positive’
There must be some uncertainty in the answer.
Do not allow ‘higher’ or ‘lower’
Condone ‘change’ rather than ‘difference’
5 | (c) | (i) | Standard error is the standard deviation of the sample mean | B1
[1] | 1.2 | Do not allow standard deviation divided by square root of
sample size
Allow standard deviation for 𝑋̅. Condone 𝑥̅
5 | (c) | (ii) | 2.14
( = 0.3384)
√40 | B1
[1] | 1.1
5 | (d) | Interval is given by
0.586 ± 1.96
× 0.3384
–0.077 < µ < 1.249 interval limits are 0.586±0.6633
So in this case the interval does contain zero so this suggests
that there may be no difference in the mean sleep score | M1
M1
A1
B1
[4] | 3.4
1.1
1.1
2.2b | Accept using t-value of 2.02(2691…)
Accept based on t-distribution (-0.098, 1.270)
Condone if only mention lower limit. Allow 0.586−0.6633
‘Yes it has made a difference since it does contain zero’ oe
Do not FT from incorrect part (b) and do not award if
incorrect statement seen.
5 A researcher is investigating whether doing yoga has any effect on quality of sleep in older people. The researcher selects a random sample of 40 older people, who then complete a yoga course. Before they start the course and again at the end, the 40 people fill in a questionnaire which measures their perceived sleep quality. The higher the score, the better is the perceived quality of sleep.
The researcher uses software to produce a 90\% confidence interval for the difference in mean sleep quality (sleep quality after the course minus sleep quality before the course). The output from the software is shown below.
Z Estimate of a Mean
Confidence level □ 0.9
Sample
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ r l }
Mean & 0.586 \\
$s$ & 2.14 \\
& 40 \\
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
Result\\
Z Estimate of a Mean
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ l l }
Mean & 0.586 \\
s & 2.14 \\
SE & 0.3384 \\
N & 40 \\
Lower limit & 0.029 \\
Upper limit & 1.143 \\
Interval & $0.586 \pm 0.557$ \\
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Explain why the confidence interval is based on the Normal distribution even though the distribution of the population of differences is not known.
\item Explain whether the confidence interval suggests that the mean sleep qualities before and after completing a yoga course are different.
\item In the output from the software, SE stands for 'standard error'.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Explain what standard error is.
\item Show how the standard error was calculated in this case.
\end{enumerate}\item A colleague of the researcher suggests that the confidence level should have been $95 \%$ rather than $90 \%$.
Determine whether this would have made a difference to your answer to part (b).
\end{enumerate}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR MEI Further Statistics Major 2024 Q5 [10]}}