Edexcel S2 2020 October — Question 2 12 marks

Exam BoardEdexcel
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2020
SessionOctober
Marks12
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicContinuous Probability Distributions and Random Variables
TypePDF from CDF
DifficultyModerate -0.3 This is a standard S2 question testing routine CDF-to-PDF conversion and basic probability calculations. While multi-part with 6 sections, each part requires straightforward application of definitions (finding PDF from CDF graph, reading E(W) from symmetry, using CDF values for probability calculations, and a binomial approximation). No novel insight or complex problem-solving is needed—slightly easier than average due to the mechanical nature of the tasks.
Spec2.04b Binomial distribution: as model B(n,p)2.04c Calculate binomial probabilities5.03a Continuous random variables: pdf and cdf5.03b Solve problems: using pdf5.03f Relate pdf-cdf: medians and percentiles

  1. In the summer Kylie catches a local steam train to work each day. The published arrival time for the train is 10 am.
The random variable \(W\) is the train's actual arrival time minus the published arrival time, in minutes. When the value of \(W\) is positive, the train is late. The cumulative distribution function \(\mathrm { F } ( w )\) is shown in the sketch below. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{3a781851-e2cc-4379-8b8c-abb3060a6019-06_583_1235_589_349}
  1. Specify fully the probability density function \(\mathrm { f } ( w )\) of \(W\).
  2. Write down the value of \(\mathrm { E } ( \mathrm { W } )\)
  3. Calculate \(\alpha\) such that \(\mathrm { P } ( \alpha \leqslant W \leqslant 1.6 ) = 0.35\) A day is selected at random.
  4. Calculate the probability that on this day the train arrives between 1.2 minutes late and 2.4 minutes late. Given that on this day the train was between 1.2 minutes late and 2.4 minutes late,
  5. calculate the probability that it was more than 2 minutes late. A random sample of 40 days is taken.
  6. Calculate the probability that for at least 10 of these days the train is between 1.2 minutes late and 2.4 minutes late. DO NOT WRITEIN THIS AREA

Question 2:
Part (a)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(f(w) = \begin{cases} \frac{1}{8} & -1.4 < w < 6.6 \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases}\)M1 pdf of this form where \(p\) is a probability; allow \(\leq\) instead of \(<\); allow equivalent for the 0 otherwise
A1Fully correct; allow \(\leq\) instead of \(<\). Allow any letter but must be consistent
Part (b)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(E(W) = 2.6\) oeB1 2.6 oe
Part (c)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\((1.6 - \alpha) \times \frac{1}{8} = 0.35\)M1 Setting up equation \((1.6-\alpha)\times\) "their \(p\)" \(= 0.35\) with \(0
\(\alpha = -1.2\) oeA1cso If using \(F(1.6)-F(\alpha)=0.35\) then F(w) must be correct
Part (d)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(P(1.2 < W < 2.4) = (2.4-1.2)\times\frac{1}{8}\)M1 \((2.4-1.2)\times\) "their \(p\)" where \(\frac{1}{8}\) is a probability, or \(F(2.4)-F(1.2)\) using F(w) in form \(bw+c\), \(0
\(= \frac{3}{20}\) or 0.15 oeA1ft Ft their \(p\) as long as answer is a probability
Part (e)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(P(W>2 \mid 1.2M1 \(\frac{0.4\times\text{"their }\frac{1}{8}\text{"}}{\text{"their (d)"}}\) or \(\frac{0.4}{\text{"1.2"}}\) implied by \(\frac{1}{3}\); allow \(\int_2^{2.4}\)"their f(w)"dw for numerator
\(= \frac{1}{3}\) (awrt 0.333)A1 Allow \(0.\dot{3}\) or \(0.\overline{3}\)
Part (f)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(Y \sim B(40, \text{"0.15"})\)M1 Writing or using \(B(40,\) "their 0.15"). Implied by mean of \(40\times\)"their (d)"
\(P(Y\geq10) = 1-P(Y\leq9)\) or \(1-0.9328\)M1 Writing or using \(1-P(Y\leq 9)\). Allow for \(1-P\!\left(z\leq\frac{9.5 \text{ or } 9 - \text{"their mean"}}{\text{"their sd"}}\right)\)
\(= 0.0672\) (awrt 0.0672)A1 awrt 0.0672
# Question 2:

## Part (a)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $f(w) = \begin{cases} \frac{1}{8} & -1.4 < w < 6.6 \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases}$ | M1 | pdf of this form where $p$ is a probability; allow $\leq$ instead of $<$; allow equivalent for the 0 otherwise |
| | A1 | Fully correct; allow $\leq$ instead of $<$. Allow any letter but must be consistent |

## Part (b)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $E(W) = 2.6$ oe | B1 | 2.6 oe |

## Part (c)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $(1.6 - \alpha) \times \frac{1}{8} = 0.35$ | M1 | Setting up equation $(1.6-\alpha)\times$ "their $p$" $= 0.35$ with $0<p<1$, or $\frac{7}{20}=\frac{2.8}{8}$ and $\alpha = 1.6-$"2.8"; or $F(1.6)-F(\alpha)=0.35$ using F(w) in form $bw+c$ where $0<b<1$; allow $\int_\alpha^{1.6}$"their f(w)"dw $=0.35$ with attempt to integrate |
| $\alpha = -1.2$ oe | A1cso | If using $F(1.6)-F(\alpha)=0.35$ then F(w) must be correct |

## Part (d)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $P(1.2 < W < 2.4) = (2.4-1.2)\times\frac{1}{8}$ | M1 | $(2.4-1.2)\times$ "their $p$" where $\frac{1}{8}$ is a probability, or $F(2.4)-F(1.2)$ using F(w) in form $bw+c$, $0<b<1$. Implied by 0.15 |
| $= \frac{3}{20}$ or 0.15 oe | A1ft | Ft their $p$ as long as answer is a probability |

## Part (e)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $P(W>2 \mid 1.2<W<2.4) = \frac{0.4\times\frac{1}{8}}{\text{"0.15"}}$ | M1 | $\frac{0.4\times\text{"their }\frac{1}{8}\text{"}}{\text{"their (d)"}}$ or $\frac{0.4}{\text{"1.2"}}$ implied by $\frac{1}{3}$; allow $\int_2^{2.4}$"their f(w)"dw for numerator |
| $= \frac{1}{3}$ (awrt 0.333) | A1 | Allow $0.\dot{3}$ or $0.\overline{3}$ |

## Part (f)

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $Y \sim B(40, \text{"0.15"})$ | M1 | Writing or using $B(40,$ "their 0.15"). Implied by mean of $40\times$"their (d)" |
| $P(Y\geq10) = 1-P(Y\leq9)$ or $1-0.9328$ | M1 | Writing or using $1-P(Y\leq 9)$. Allow for $1-P\!\left(z\leq\frac{9.5 \text{ or } 9 - \text{"their mean"}}{\text{"their sd"}}\right)$ |
| $= 0.0672$ (awrt 0.0672) | A1 | awrt 0.0672 |
\begin{enumerate}
  \item In the summer Kylie catches a local steam train to work each day. The published arrival time for the train is 10 am.
\end{enumerate}

The random variable $W$ is the train's actual arrival time minus the published arrival time, in minutes. When the value of $W$ is positive, the train is late.

The cumulative distribution function $\mathrm { F } ( w )$ is shown in the sketch below.\\
\includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{3a781851-e2cc-4379-8b8c-abb3060a6019-06_583_1235_589_349}\\
(a) Specify fully the probability density function $\mathrm { f } ( w )$ of $W$.\\
(b) Write down the value of $\mathrm { E } ( \mathrm { W } )$\\
(c) Calculate $\alpha$ such that $\mathrm { P } ( \alpha \leqslant W \leqslant 1.6 ) = 0.35$

A day is selected at random.\\
(d) Calculate the probability that on this day the train arrives between 1.2 minutes late and 2.4 minutes late.

Given that on this day the train was between 1.2 minutes late and 2.4 minutes late,\\
(e) calculate the probability that it was more than 2 minutes late.

A random sample of 40 days is taken.\\
(f) Calculate the probability that for at least 10 of these days the train is between 1.2 minutes late and 2.4 minutes late.

DO NOT WRITEIN THIS AREA\\

\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S2 2020 Q2 [12]}}