| Exam Board | Edexcel |
|---|---|
| Module | S2 (Statistics 2) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Session | January |
| Marks | 14 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Continuous Probability Distributions and Random Variables |
| Type | Piecewise PDF with k |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 This is a standard S2 piecewise PDF question requiring routine integration to find c, sketching, finding the CDF by integrating each piece, and applying conditional probability. All techniques are textbook exercises with no novel insight required, making it slightly easier than average. |
| Spec | 2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles5.03a Continuous random variables: pdf and cdf5.03b Solve problems: using pdf5.03e Find cdf: by integration5.03f Relate pdf-cdf: medians and percentiles |
| Leave blank | Q7 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(\int_{-3}^{0} c(x+3)\,dx + \int_{0}^{3} \frac{5}{36}(3-x)\,dx = 1\) or area of triangle \(= \frac{3\times 3c}{2} + \frac{3\times \frac{5}{36}(3)}{2}\) | M1 | Correct integrals added with limits, or area of triangle. Do not accept \(c(0+3)=\frac{5}{36}(3-0)\) |
| \(c\left(-\frac{9}{2}+9\right)+\frac{5}{8}=1\) oe or \(\frac{3\times 3c}{2}+\frac{5}{8}=1\) oe | dM1 | Equating to 1 and attempting to solve |
| \(c = \frac{1}{12}\) * | A1cso | No incorrect working seen |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| \(\left[\int c(x+3)\right] = c\left(\frac{x^2}{2}+3x\right)+d\) and \(\left[\int\frac{5}{36}(3-x)\right]=\frac{5}{36}\left(3x-\frac{x^2}{2}\right)+e\) | M1 |
| Using \(F(-3)=0\) and \(F(3)=1\) and \(d=e\) | dM1 |
| \(c=\frac{1}{12}\) * | A1 cso |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| Correct sketch of \(f(x)\): straight line positive gradient from \(-3\leq x<0\) and straight line negative gradient from \(0\leq x\leq 3\), LHS below RHS at \(y\)-axis | B1 | |
| Correct labels: \(-3\) and \(3\) on \(x\)-axis and \(\frac{1}{4}\) and \(\frac{5}{12}\) oe on \(y\)-axis | B1 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| Highest point [at \(f(0)\), so \(X=0\) is the mode] oe | B1 | oe e.g. Maximum value. Condone "highest probability" |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \(\int_{-3}^{x}\frac{1}{12}(t+3)\,dt\) or \(\int\frac{1}{12}(x+3)\,dx\) with \(+c\) and \(F(-3)=0\) | M1 | Also: attempting to integrate second line with correct limits \(+F(0)\) or \(+d\) and \(F(3)=1\). Allow use of \(F(0)=\frac{3}{8}\) instead of \(F(-3)=0\) or \(F(3)=1\) |
| \(F(x)=\begin{cases}0 & x<-3\\ \frac{1}{24}x^2+\frac{1}{4}x+\frac{3}{8} & -3\leq x<0\\ \frac{5}{12}x-\frac{5}{72}x^2+\frac{3}{8} & 0\leq x\leq 3\\ 1 & x>3\end{cases}\) or \(F(x)=\begin{cases}0\\ \frac{1}{24}(x+3)^2\\ 1-\frac{5}{72}(3-x)^2\\ 1\end{cases}\) | B1, A1, A1 | B1: 1st and 4th lines correct (allow \(\leq\) instead of \(<\) and vice versa). A1: 2nd line correct with limits. A1: 3rd line correct with limits |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
| \([P(X>d\mid X>0)=]\;\frac{1-F(d)}{1-F(0)}=\frac{2}{5}\) oe | M1 | Correct probability expression. Allow \(\frac{P(X>d)}{P(X>0)}=\frac{2}{5}\). Do not allow \(P(X>d)\cap P(X>0)\) |
| \(1-F(d)=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{5}{8}\left[=\frac{1}{4}\right]\) oe | A1 | Or \(1-P(x |
| \(1-\left(\frac{5}{12}d-\frac{5}{72}d^2+\frac{3}{8}\right)=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{5}{8}\) or \(\frac{(3-d)\frac{5}{36}(3-d)}{2}=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{5}{8}\) oe | dM1 | Previous M1 awarded. Using their cdf or area of triangle, setting \(1-F(d)=\) their \(P(X>d)\) and solving |
| \(d=\) awrt \(\mathbf{1.10}\) | A1 |
# Question 7:
## Part (a):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $\int_{-3}^{0} c(x+3)\,dx + \int_{0}^{3} \frac{5}{36}(3-x)\,dx = 1$ **or** area of triangle $= \frac{3\times 3c}{2} + \frac{3\times \frac{5}{36}(3)}{2}$ | M1 | Correct integrals added with limits, or area of triangle. Do not accept $c(0+3)=\frac{5}{36}(3-0)$ |
| $c\left(-\frac{9}{2}+9\right)+\frac{5}{8}=1$ oe **or** $\frac{3\times 3c}{2}+\frac{5}{8}=1$ oe | dM1 | Equating to 1 and attempting to solve |
| $c = \frac{1}{12}$ * | A1cso | No incorrect working seen |
**Alternative:**
| $\left[\int c(x+3)\right] = c\left(\frac{x^2}{2}+3x\right)+d$ and $\left[\int\frac{5}{36}(3-x)\right]=\frac{5}{36}\left(3x-\frac{x^2}{2}\right)+e$ | M1 | |
| Using $F(-3)=0$ and $F(3)=1$ and $d=e$ | dM1 | |
| $c=\frac{1}{12}$ * | A1 cso | |
---
## Part (b)(i):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Correct sketch of $f(x)$: straight line positive gradient from $-3\leq x<0$ and straight line negative gradient from $0\leq x\leq 3$, LHS below RHS at $y$-axis | B1 | |
| Correct labels: $-3$ and $3$ on $x$-axis and $\frac{1}{4}$ and $\frac{5}{12}$ oe on $y$-axis | B1 | |
## Part (b)(ii):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| **Highest point** [at $f(0)$, so $X=0$ is the mode] oe | B1 | oe e.g. Maximum value. Condone "highest probability" |
---
## Part (c):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $\int_{-3}^{x}\frac{1}{12}(t+3)\,dt$ **or** $\int\frac{1}{12}(x+3)\,dx$ with $+c$ and $F(-3)=0$ | M1 | Also: attempting to integrate second line with correct limits $+F(0)$ **or** $+d$ and $F(3)=1$. Allow use of $F(0)=\frac{3}{8}$ instead of $F(-3)=0$ or $F(3)=1$ |
| $F(x)=\begin{cases}0 & x<-3\\ \frac{1}{24}x^2+\frac{1}{4}x+\frac{3}{8} & -3\leq x<0\\ \frac{5}{12}x-\frac{5}{72}x^2+\frac{3}{8} & 0\leq x\leq 3\\ 1 & x>3\end{cases}$ **or** $F(x)=\begin{cases}0\\ \frac{1}{24}(x+3)^2\\ 1-\frac{5}{72}(3-x)^2\\ 1\end{cases}$ | B1, A1, A1 | B1: 1st and 4th lines correct (allow $\leq$ instead of $<$ and vice versa). A1: 2nd line correct with limits. A1: 3rd line correct with limits |
---
## Part (d):
| Working/Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $[P(X>d\mid X>0)=]\;\frac{1-F(d)}{1-F(0)}=\frac{2}{5}$ oe | M1 | Correct probability expression. Allow $\frac{P(X>d)}{P(X>0)}=\frac{2}{5}$. Do not allow $P(X>d)\cap P(X>0)$ |
| $1-F(d)=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{5}{8}\left[=\frac{1}{4}\right]$ oe | A1 | Or $1-P(x<d)=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{5}{8}=\frac{1}{4}$, or $F(d)=\frac{3}{4}$, or $P(x>d)=\frac{1}{4}$ |
| $1-\left(\frac{5}{12}d-\frac{5}{72}d^2+\frac{3}{8}\right)=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{5}{8}$ **or** $\frac{(3-d)\frac{5}{36}(3-d)}{2}=\frac{2}{5}\times\frac{5}{8}$ oe | dM1 | Previous M1 awarded. Using their cdf or area of triangle, setting $1-F(d)=$ their $P(X>d)$ and solving |
| $d=$ awrt $\mathbf{1.10}$ | A1 | |
\begin{enumerate}
\item The continuous random variable $X$ has probability density function
\end{enumerate}
$$f ( x ) = \begin{cases} c ( x + 3 ) & - 3 \leqslant x < 0 \\ \frac { 5 } { 36 } ( 3 - x ) & 0 \leqslant x \leqslant 3 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{cases}$$
where $c$ is a positive constant.\\
(a) Show that $c = \frac { 1 } { 12 }$\\
(b) (i) Sketch the probability density function.\\
(ii) Explain why the mode of $X = 0$\\
(c) Find the cumulative distribution function of $X$, for all values of $x$\\
(d) Find, to 3 significant figures, the value of $d$ such that $\mathrm { P } ( X > d \mid X > 0 ) = \frac { 2 } { 5 }$
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\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S2 2019 Q7 [14]}}