6 The pre-release material contains information about employment rates in London boroughs. The graph shows employment rates for Westminster between 2006 and 2019.
\begin{figure}[h]
\captionsetup{labelformat=empty}
\caption{Employment rate in Westminster}
\includegraphics[alt={},max width=\textwidth]{e0b502a8-c742-4d78-993c-8c0c7329ec9c-05_641_1465_406_242}
\end{figure}
A local politician stated that the diagram shows that more than \(60 \%\) of seventy-year-olds were in employment throughout the period from 2006 to 2019.
- Use your knowledge of the pre-release material to explain whether there is any evidence to support this statement.
In order to estimate the employment rate in 2020, two different models were proposed using the LINEST function in a spreadsheet.
Model 1 (using all the data from 2006 onwards)
\(\mathrm { Y } = 0.549 \mathrm { x } - 1040\),
Model 2 (using data from 2017 onwards)
\(\mathrm { Y } = 2.65 \mathrm { x } - 5280\),
where \(Y =\) employment rate and \(x =\) calendar year.
It was subsequently found that the employment rate in Westminster in 2020 was 68.4\%. - Determine which of the two models provided the better estimate for the employment rate in Westminster in 2020.
- Use your knowledge of the pre-release material to explain whether it would be appropriate to use either model to estimate the employment rate in 2020 in other London boroughs.
- What does model 2 predict for employment rates in Westminster in the long term?