7 A particular disease occurs in a proportion \(p\) of the population of a town. A diagnostic test has been developed, in which a positive result indicates the presence of the disease. It has a probability 0.98 of giving a true positive result, i.e. of indicating the presence of the disease when it is actually present. The test will give a false positive result with probability 0.08 when the disease is not present. A randomly chosen person is given the test.
- Find, in terms of \(p\), the probability that
(a) the person has the disease when the result is positive,
(b) the test will lead to a wrong conclusion.
It is decided that if the result of the test on someone is positive, that person is tested again. The result of the second test is independent of the result of the first test. - Find the probability that the person has the disease when the result of the second test is positive.
- The town has 24000 children and plans to test all of them at a cost of \(\pounds 5\) per test. Assuming that \(p = 0.001\), calculate the expected total cost of carrying out these tests.