OCR MEI S1 2005 January — Question 6

Exam BoardOCR MEI
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2005
SessionJanuary
TopicConditional Probability
TypeBasic two-way table probability

6 An amateur weather forecaster describes each day as either sunny, cloudy or wet. He keeps a record each day of his forecast and of the actual weather. His results for one particular year are given in the table.
Weather Forecast\multirow{2}{*}{Total}
\cline { 3 - 6 } \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{}SunnyCloudyWet
\multirow{3}{*}{
Actual
Weather
}
Sunny5512774
\cline { 2 - 6 }Cloudy1712829174
\cline { 2 - 6 }Wet33381117
Total75173117365
A day is selected at random from that year.
  1. Show that the probability that the forecast is correct is \(\frac { 264 } { 365 }\). Find the probability that
  2. the forecast is correct, given that the forecast is sunny,
  3. the forecast is correct, given that the weather is wet,
  4. the weather is cloudy, given that the forecast is correct.