Three or more stages

A question is this type if and only if the tree diagram explicitly involves three or more sequential stages or time periods (e.g., three days of weather, three test attempts).

3 questions

OCR S1 2005 June Q6
6 Two bags contain coloured discs. At first, bag \(P\) contains 2 red discs and 2 green discs, and bag \(Q\) contains 3 red discs and 1 green disc. A disc is chosen at random from bag \(P\), its colour is noted and it is placed in bag \(Q\). A disc is then chosen at random from bag \(Q\), its colour is noted and it is placed in bag \(P\). A disc is then chosen at random from bag \(P\). The tree diagram shows the different combinations of three coloured discs chosen.
\includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{5faf0d93-4037-4958-8665-1008477a79de-5_863_986_559_612}
  1. Write down the values of \(a , b , c , d , e\) and \(f\). The total number of red discs chosen, out of 3, is denoted by \(R\). The table shows the probability distribution of \(R\).
    \(r\)0123
    \(\mathrm { P } ( R = r )\)\(\frac { 1 } { 10 }\)\(k\)\(\frac { 9 } { 20 }\)\(\frac { 1 } { 5 }\)
  2. Show how to obtain the value \(\mathrm { P } ( R = 2 ) = \frac { 9 } { 20 }\).
  3. Find the value of \(k\).
  4. Calculate the mean and variance of \(R\).
OCR MEI S1 Q2
2 Jimmy and Alan are playing a tennis match against each other. The winner of the match is the first player to win three sets. Jimmy won the first set and Alan won the second set. For each of the remaining sets, the probability that Jimmy wins a set is
  • 0.7 if he won the previous set,
  • 0.4 if Alan won the previous set.
It is not possible to draw a set.
  1. Draw a probability tree diagram to illustrate the possible outcomes for each of the remaining sets.
  2. Find the probability that Alan wins the match.
  3. Find the probability that the match ends after exactly four sets have been played.
OCR MEI S1 Q3
3 One train leaves a station each hour. The train is either on time or late. If the train is on time, the probability that the next train is on time is 0.95 . If the train is late, the probability that the next train is on time is 0.6 . On a particular day, the 0900 train is on time.
  1. Illustrate the possible outcomes for the 1000,1100 and 1200 trains on a probability tree diagram.
  2. Find the probability that
    (A) all three of these trains are on time,
    (B) just one of these three trains is on time,
    (C) the 1200 train is on time.
  3. Given that the 1200 train is on time, find the probability that the 1000 train is also on time.