CAIE S2 2011 November — Question 3 5 marks

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2011
SessionNovember
Marks5
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicLinear combinations of normal random variables
TypeSum or total of normal variables
DifficultyModerate -0.3 This is a straightforward application of the standard result that the sum of independent normal variables is normal, requiring only addition of means and variances, followed by a single normal probability calculation. The arithmetic is simple and the method is direct textbook application with no problem-solving insight needed.
Spec5.04a Linear combinations: E(aX+bY), Var(aX+bY)5.04b Linear combinations: of normal distributions

3 Three coats of paint are sprayed onto a surface. The thicknesses, in millimetres, of the three coats have independent distributions \(\mathrm { N } \left( 0.13,0.02 ^ { 2 } \right) , \mathrm { N } \left( 0.14,0.03 ^ { 2 } \right)\) and \(\mathrm { N } \left( 0.10,0.01 ^ { 2 } \right)\). Find the probability that, at a randomly chosen place on the surface, the total thickness of the three coats of paint is less than 0.30 millimetres.

Question 3:
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(\text{Var(Tot)} = 0.02^2 + 0.03^2 + 0.01^2 = 0.0014\)B1
\(\text{Mean(Tot)} = 0.37\); \(\text{Tot} \sim N(0.37, 0.0014)\)B1
\(\dfrac{0.30 - 0.37}{\sqrt{0.0014}} (= -1.871)\)M1 Allow without \(\sqrt{\phantom{x}}\). No cc
\(\Phi(-1.871) = 1 - \Phi(1.871)\)M1
\(= 0.0306\) or \(0.0307\)A1 [5] Correct area
## Question 3:

| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $\text{Var(Tot)} = 0.02^2 + 0.03^2 + 0.01^2 = 0.0014$ | B1 | |
| $\text{Mean(Tot)} = 0.37$; $\text{Tot} \sim N(0.37, 0.0014)$ | B1 | |
| $\dfrac{0.30 - 0.37}{\sqrt{0.0014}} (= -1.871)$ | M1 | Allow without $\sqrt{\phantom{x}}$. No cc |
| $\Phi(-1.871) = 1 - \Phi(1.871)$ | M1 | |
| $= 0.0306$ or $0.0307$ | A1 [5] | Correct area |

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3 Three coats of paint are sprayed onto a surface. The thicknesses, in millimetres, of the three coats have independent distributions $\mathrm { N } \left( 0.13,0.02 ^ { 2 } \right) , \mathrm { N } \left( 0.14,0.03 ^ { 2 } \right)$ and $\mathrm { N } \left( 0.10,0.01 ^ { 2 } \right)$. Find the probability that, at a randomly chosen place on the surface, the total thickness of the three coats of paint is less than 0.30 millimetres.

\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S2 2011 Q3 [5]}}