CAIE S2 2024 June — Question 2 5 marks

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2024
SessionJune
Marks5
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TopicLinear combinations of normal random variables
TypeDirect comparison with scalar multiple (different variables)
DifficultyStandard +0.8 This question requires students to recognize that comparing X₁ and X₂ is equivalent to finding P(X₁ - 3X₂ > 0), then apply linear combinations of normal variables to find the mean and variance of this new variable, and finally use standardization. While the individual techniques are standard S2 content, the conceptual leap to reformulate the comparison and handle the coefficient 3 correctly makes this moderately challenging—above average but not exceptionally difficult.
Spec5.04b Linear combinations: of normal distributions

2 The random variable \(X\) has the distribution \(\mathrm { N } \left( 31.2,10.4 ^ { 2 } \right)\). Two independent random values of \(X\), denoted by \(X _ { 1 }\) and \(X _ { 2 }\), are chosen. Find \(\mathrm { P } \left( X _ { 1 } > 3 X _ { 2 } \right)\).

Question 2:
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMarks Guidance
\(E(X_1 - 3X_2) = 31.2 - 3 \times 31.2\) \([= -62.4]\)B1 OE \(E(3X_2 - X_1) = +62.4\)
\(\text{Var}(X_1 - 3X_2) = 10.4^2 + 3^2 \times 10.4^2\) \([= 1081.6]\)B1
\(\frac{0-(-62.4)}{\sqrt{1081.6}}\) \([= 1.897]\)M1 Standardising (with attempt at E and Var, not just using 31.2 and 10.4)
\(1 - \Phi(1.897)\)M1 For area consistent with their working
\(= 0.0289\) (3 sf)A1
5
## Question 2:

| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| $E(X_1 - 3X_2) = 31.2 - 3 \times 31.2$ $[= -62.4]$ | **B1** | OE $E(3X_2 - X_1) = +62.4$ |
| $\text{Var}(X_1 - 3X_2) = 10.4^2 + 3^2 \times 10.4^2$ $[= 1081.6]$ | **B1** | |
| $\frac{0-(-62.4)}{\sqrt{1081.6}}$ $[= 1.897]$ | **M1** | Standardising (with attempt at E and Var, not just using 31.2 and 10.4) |
| $1 - \Phi(1.897)$ | **M1** | For area consistent with their working |
| $= 0.0289$ (3 sf) | **A1** | |
| | **5** | |
2 The random variable $X$ has the distribution $\mathrm { N } \left( 31.2,10.4 ^ { 2 } \right)$. Two independent random values of $X$, denoted by $X _ { 1 }$ and $X _ { 2 }$, are chosen.

Find $\mathrm { P } \left( X _ { 1 } > 3 X _ { 2 } \right)$.\\

\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S2 2024 Q2 [5]}}