CAIE S2 2024 June — Question 1 3 marks

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2024
SessionJune
Marks3
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicSum of Poisson processes
TypeSum of three or more Poissons
DifficultyStandard +0.3 This question requires knowing that independent Poisson distributions sum to another Poisson (Po(0.4)+Po(0.1)+Po(0.2)+Po(0.5)=Po(1.2)), scaling the rate for 60 seconds (Po(7.2)), and calculating P(X>3)=1-P(X≤3) using tables. It's a straightforward application of standard Poisson properties with minimal problem-solving, making it slightly easier than average.
Spec5.02n Sum of Poisson variables: is Poisson

1 A bus station has exactly four entrances. In the morning the numbers of passengers arriving at these entrances during a 10 -second period have the independent distributions \(\operatorname { Po } ( 0.4 ) , \operatorname { Po } ( 0.1 ) , \operatorname { Po } ( 0.2 )\) and \(\mathrm { Po } ( 0.5 )\). Find the probability that the total number of passengers arriving at the four entrances to the bus station during a randomly chosen 1 -minute period in the morning is more than 3 .

Question 1:
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMarks Guidance
\(\lambda = 7.2\)B1
\(P(X > 3) = 1 - e^{-7.2}(1 + 7.2 + \frac{7.2^2}{2!} + \frac{7.2^3}{3!})\) or \(1 - e^{-7.2}(1 + 7.2 + 25.92 + 62.21)\) or \(1 - (0.0007466 + 0.005375 + 0.01935 + 0.04644)\)M1 Allow any \(\lambda\). Allow one end error. Must see expression. Allow fully correct sigma notation.
\(= 0.928\) (3sf)A1 SC: 0.928 with no working seen scores B1 B1
3
## Question 1:

| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| $\lambda = 7.2$ | **B1** | |
| $P(X > 3) = 1 - e^{-7.2}(1 + 7.2 + \frac{7.2^2}{2!} + \frac{7.2^3}{3!})$ or $1 - e^{-7.2}(1 + 7.2 + 25.92 + 62.21)$ or $1 - (0.0007466 + 0.005375 + 0.01935 + 0.04644)$ | **M1** | Allow any $\lambda$. Allow one end error. Must see expression. Allow fully correct sigma notation. |
| $= 0.928$ (3sf) | **A1** | SC: 0.928 with no working seen scores **B1 B1** |
| | **3** | |

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1 A bus station has exactly four entrances. In the morning the numbers of passengers arriving at these entrances during a 10 -second period have the independent distributions $\operatorname { Po } ( 0.4 ) , \operatorname { Po } ( 0.1 ) , \operatorname { Po } ( 0.2 )$ and $\mathrm { Po } ( 0.5 )$.

Find the probability that the total number of passengers arriving at the four entrances to the bus station during a randomly chosen 1 -minute period in the morning is more than 3 .\\

\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S2 2024 Q1 [3]}}