CAIE S1 2016 November — Question 1

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2016
SessionNovember
TopicConditional Probability
TypeStandard Bayes with discrete events

1 When Anya goes to school, the probability that she walks is 0.3 and the probability that she cycles is 0.65 ; if she does not walk or cycle she takes the bus. When Anya walks the probability that she is late is 0.15 . When she cycles the probability that she is late is 0.1 and when she takes the bus the probability that she is late is 0.6 . Given that Anya is late, find the probability that she cycles.