| Exam Board | CAIE |
|---|---|
| Module | S1 (Statistics 1) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Session | November |
| Marks | 9 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Discrete Probability Distributions |
| Type | Sum or difference of two spinners/dice |
| Difficulty | Moderate -0.8 This is a straightforward discrete probability distribution question requiring completion of a sample space table, calculation of probabilities from equally likely outcomes, variance using standard formulas, and conditional probability. All steps are routine S1 techniques with no novel problem-solving required, making it easier than average A-level maths questions. |
| Spec | 2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles2.04a Discrete probability distributions5.02b Expectation and variance: discrete random variables5.02c Linear coding: effects on mean and variance |
| Spinner \(A\) | |||||
| \cline { 2 - 6 } | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Spinner \(B\) | - 2 | ||||
| - 2 | 1 | ||||
| - 1 | |||||
| 1 | |||||
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| Table of \(X\) values with Spinner A values 1, 2, 3, 3 and Spinner B values \(-3, -2, -1, 1\): resulting in values \((-2), -1, 0, 0; -1, 0, (1), 1; 0, 1, 2, 2; 2, 3, 4, 4\) | B1 (1) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| \(x\): \(-2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4\) | M1 | Their values in (i) as the top line, seen listed in (ii) or used in part (iii) |
| prob: \(\frac{1}{16}, \frac{2}{16}, \frac{4}{16}, \frac{3}{16}, \frac{3}{16}, \frac{1}{16}, \frac{2}{16}\) | M1 | Attempt at probs seen evaluated, need at least 4 correct from their table |
| A1 (3) | Correct table seen |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| \(E(X) = 1\) | M1 | Attempt at \(E(X)\) from their table if \(\Sigma p = 1\) |
| \(\text{Var}(X) = ((-2)^2 + 2 + 3 + 12 + 9 + 32)/16 - 1^2\) | M1 | Evaluating \(\Sigma x^2 p - [\text{their } E(X)]^2\), allow \(\Sigma p \neq 1\) but all \(p\)'s \(< 1\) |
| \(= \frac{62}{16} - 1 = \frac{23}{8}\ (2.875)\) | A1 (3) | Correct answer |
| OR using \(\Sigma p(x-\bar{x})^2 = (9+8+4+0+3+4+18)/16 = \frac{46}{16} = 2.875\) | M1, M1, A1 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
| \(P(\text{even given} +\text{ve}) = \frac{5}{9}\) | M1 | Counting their even numbers and dividing by their positive numbers |
| A1 (2) | Correct answer | |
| OR \(P(\text{even given} +\text{ve}) = \dfrac{\left(\frac{5}{16}\right)}{\left(\frac{9}{16}\right)} = \frac{5}{9}\) | M1 | Using cond prob formula, not \(P(E) \times P(+\text{ve})\), need fraction over fraction, accept any of \(\frac{5/16\ \text{or}\ 6/16\ \text{or}\ 9/16}{9/16\ \text{or}\ 10/16\ \text{or}\ 13/16}\) |
| A1 | Correct answer |
## Question 6:
### Part (i):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Table of $X$ values with Spinner A values 1, 2, 3, 3 and Spinner B values $-3, -2, -1, 1$: resulting in values $(-2), -1, 0, 0; -1, 0, (1), 1; 0, 1, 2, 2; 2, 3, 4, 4$ | B1 (1) | |
### Part (ii):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $x$: $-2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4$ | M1 | Their values in (i) as the top line, seen listed in (ii) or used in part (iii) |
| prob: $\frac{1}{16}, \frac{2}{16}, \frac{4}{16}, \frac{3}{16}, \frac{3}{16}, \frac{1}{16}, \frac{2}{16}$ | M1 | Attempt at probs seen evaluated, need at least 4 correct from their table |
| | A1 (3) | Correct table seen |
### Part (iii):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $E(X) = 1$ | M1 | Attempt at $E(X)$ from their table if $\Sigma p = 1$ |
| $\text{Var}(X) = ((-2)^2 + 2 + 3 + 12 + 9 + 32)/16 - 1^2$ | M1 | Evaluating $\Sigma x^2 p - [\text{their } E(X)]^2$, allow $\Sigma p \neq 1$ but all $p$'s $< 1$ |
| $= \frac{62}{16} - 1 = \frac{23}{8}\ (2.875)$ | A1 (3) | Correct answer |
| OR using $\Sigma p(x-\bar{x})^2 = (9+8+4+0+3+4+18)/16 = \frac{46}{16} = 2.875$ | M1, M1, A1 | |
### Part (iv):
| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $P(\text{even given} +\text{ve}) = \frac{5}{9}$ | M1 | Counting their even numbers and dividing by their positive numbers |
| | A1 (2) | Correct answer |
| OR $P(\text{even given} +\text{ve}) = \dfrac{\left(\frac{5}{16}\right)}{\left(\frac{9}{16}\right)} = \frac{5}{9}$ | M1 | Using cond prob formula, not $P(E) \times P(+\text{ve})$, need fraction over fraction, accept any of $\frac{5/16\ \text{or}\ 6/16\ \text{or}\ 9/16}{9/16\ \text{or}\ 10/16\ \text{or}\ 13/16}$ |
| | A1 | Correct answer |
---
6 A fair spinner $A$ has edges numbered $1,2,3,3$. A fair spinner $B$ has edges numbered $- 3 , - 2 , - 1,1$. Each spinner is spun. The number on the edge that the spinner comes to rest on is noted. Let $X$ be the sum of the numbers for the two spinners.\\
(i) Copy and complete the table showing the possible values of $X$.
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ l | c | c | c | c | c | }
& \multicolumn{5}{c}{Spinner $A$} \\
\cline { 2 - 6 }
& & 1 & 2 & 3 & 3 \\
\hline
Spinner $B$ & - 2 & & & & \\
\hline
- 2 & & & 1 & & \\
\hline
- 1 & & & & & \\
\hline
1 & & & & & \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
(ii) Draw up a table showing the probability distribution of $X$.\\
(iii) Find $\operatorname { Var } ( X )$.\\
(iv) Find the probability that $X$ is even, given that $X$ is positive.
\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S1 2015 Q6 [9]}}