CAIE S1 2015 November — Question 6 9 marks

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2015
SessionNovember
Marks9
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicDiscrete Probability Distributions
TypeSum or difference of two spinners/dice
DifficultyModerate -0.8 This is a straightforward discrete probability distribution question requiring completion of a sample space table, calculation of probabilities from equally likely outcomes, variance using standard formulas, and conditional probability. All steps are routine S1 techniques with no novel problem-solving required, making it easier than average A-level maths questions.
Spec2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles2.04a Discrete probability distributions5.02b Expectation and variance: discrete random variables5.02c Linear coding: effects on mean and variance

6 A fair spinner \(A\) has edges numbered \(1,2,3,3\). A fair spinner \(B\) has edges numbered \(- 3 , - 2 , - 1,1\). Each spinner is spun. The number on the edge that the spinner comes to rest on is noted. Let \(X\) be the sum of the numbers for the two spinners.
  1. Copy and complete the table showing the possible values of \(X\).
    Spinner \(A\)
    \cline { 2 - 6 }1233
    Spinner \(B\)- 2
    - 21
    - 1
    1
  2. Draw up a table showing the probability distribution of \(X\).
  3. Find \(\operatorname { Var } ( X )\).
  4. Find the probability that \(X\) is even, given that \(X\) is positive.

Question 6:
Part (i):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
Table of \(X\) values with Spinner A values 1, 2, 3, 3 and Spinner B values \(-3, -2, -1, 1\): resulting in values \((-2), -1, 0, 0; -1, 0, (1), 1; 0, 1, 2, 2; 2, 3, 4, 4\)B1 (1)
Part (ii):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
\(x\): \(-2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4\)M1 Their values in (i) as the top line, seen listed in (ii) or used in part (iii)
prob: \(\frac{1}{16}, \frac{2}{16}, \frac{4}{16}, \frac{3}{16}, \frac{3}{16}, \frac{1}{16}, \frac{2}{16}\)M1 Attempt at probs seen evaluated, need at least 4 correct from their table
A1 (3)Correct table seen
Part (iii):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
\(E(X) = 1\)M1 Attempt at \(E(X)\) from their table if \(\Sigma p = 1\)
\(\text{Var}(X) = ((-2)^2 + 2 + 3 + 12 + 9 + 32)/16 - 1^2\)M1 Evaluating \(\Sigma x^2 p - [\text{their } E(X)]^2\), allow \(\Sigma p \neq 1\) but all \(p\)'s \(< 1\)
\(= \frac{62}{16} - 1 = \frac{23}{8}\ (2.875)\)A1 (3) Correct answer
OR using \(\Sigma p(x-\bar{x})^2 = (9+8+4+0+3+4+18)/16 = \frac{46}{16} = 2.875\)M1, M1, A1
Part (iv):
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMarks Guidance
\(P(\text{even given} +\text{ve}) = \frac{5}{9}\)M1 Counting their even numbers and dividing by their positive numbers
A1 (2)Correct answer
OR \(P(\text{even given} +\text{ve}) = \dfrac{\left(\frac{5}{16}\right)}{\left(\frac{9}{16}\right)} = \frac{5}{9}\)M1 Using cond prob formula, not \(P(E) \times P(+\text{ve})\), need fraction over fraction, accept any of \(\frac{5/16\ \text{or}\ 6/16\ \text{or}\ 9/16}{9/16\ \text{or}\ 10/16\ \text{or}\ 13/16}\)
A1Correct answer
## Question 6:

### Part (i):

| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Table of $X$ values with Spinner A values 1, 2, 3, 3 and Spinner B values $-3, -2, -1, 1$: resulting in values $(-2), -1, 0, 0; -1, 0, (1), 1; 0, 1, 2, 2; 2, 3, 4, 4$ | B1 (1) | |

### Part (ii):

| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $x$: $-2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4$ | M1 | Their values in (i) as the top line, seen listed in (ii) or used in part (iii) |
| prob: $\frac{1}{16}, \frac{2}{16}, \frac{4}{16}, \frac{3}{16}, \frac{3}{16}, \frac{1}{16}, \frac{2}{16}$ | M1 | Attempt at probs seen evaluated, need at least 4 correct from their table |
| | A1 (3) | Correct table seen |

### Part (iii):

| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $E(X) = 1$ | M1 | Attempt at $E(X)$ from their table if $\Sigma p = 1$ |
| $\text{Var}(X) = ((-2)^2 + 2 + 3 + 12 + 9 + 32)/16 - 1^2$ | M1 | Evaluating $\Sigma x^2 p - [\text{their } E(X)]^2$, allow $\Sigma p \neq 1$ but all $p$'s $< 1$ |
| $= \frac{62}{16} - 1 = \frac{23}{8}\ (2.875)$ | A1 (3) | Correct answer |
| OR using $\Sigma p(x-\bar{x})^2 = (9+8+4+0+3+4+18)/16 = \frac{46}{16} = 2.875$ | M1, M1, A1 | |

### Part (iv):

| Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $P(\text{even given} +\text{ve}) = \frac{5}{9}$ | M1 | Counting their even numbers and dividing by their positive numbers |
| | A1 (2) | Correct answer |
| OR $P(\text{even given} +\text{ve}) = \dfrac{\left(\frac{5}{16}\right)}{\left(\frac{9}{16}\right)} = \frac{5}{9}$ | M1 | Using cond prob formula, not $P(E) \times P(+\text{ve})$, need fraction over fraction, accept any of $\frac{5/16\ \text{or}\ 6/16\ \text{or}\ 9/16}{9/16\ \text{or}\ 10/16\ \text{or}\ 13/16}$ |
| | A1 | Correct answer |

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6 A fair spinner $A$ has edges numbered $1,2,3,3$. A fair spinner $B$ has edges numbered $- 3 , - 2 , - 1,1$. Each spinner is spun. The number on the edge that the spinner comes to rest on is noted. Let $X$ be the sum of the numbers for the two spinners.\\
(i) Copy and complete the table showing the possible values of $X$.

\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ l | c | c | c | c | c | }
 & \multicolumn{5}{c}{Spinner $A$} \\
\cline { 2 - 6 }
 &  & 1 & 2 & 3 & 3 \\
\hline
Spinner $B$ & - 2 &  &  &  &  \\
\hline
- 2 &  &  & 1 &  &  \\
\hline
- 1 &  &  &  &  &  \\
\hline
1 &  &  &  &  &  \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}

(ii) Draw up a table showing the probability distribution of $X$.\\
(iii) Find $\operatorname { Var } ( X )$.\\
(iv) Find the probability that $X$ is even, given that $X$ is positive.

\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S1 2015 Q6 [9]}}