CAIE S1 2019 June — Question 3 4 marks

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2019
SessionJune
Marks4
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicIndependent Events
TypeTest independence using definition
DifficultyModerate -0.3 This is a straightforward application of the independence definition P(X∩Y) = P(X)P(Y) with simple probability calculations from equally likely outcomes. The sample space is small (36 outcomes), making enumeration manageable, and the question explicitly directs students to test independence rather than requiring them to recognize this approach themselves.
Spec2.03a Mutually exclusive and independent events2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles

3 A fair six-sided die is thrown twice and the scores are noted. Event \(X\) is defined as 'The total of the two scores is 4'. Event \(Y\) is defined as 'The first score is 2 or 5'. Are events \(X\) and \(Y\) independent? Justify your answer.

Question 3:
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMark Guidance
\(P(X) = \frac{3}{36}\) \(\left(\frac{1}{12} \text{ oe}\right)\)B1
\(P(Y) = \frac{12}{36}\) \(\left(\frac{1}{3} \text{ oe}\right)\)B1
\(P(X \cap Y) = \frac{1}{36}\)M1 Independent method to find \(P(X \cap Y)\) without multiplication, either stated or by listing/circling numbers on a probability space diagram. OR conditional prob with a single fraction numerator
\(P(X) \times P(Y) = P(X \cap Y)\), independentA1 Numerical comparison and conclusion, www
## Question 3:

| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| $P(X) = \frac{3}{36}$ $\left(\frac{1}{12} \text{ oe}\right)$ | B1 | |
| $P(Y) = \frac{12}{36}$ $\left(\frac{1}{3} \text{ oe}\right)$ | B1 | |
| $P(X \cap Y) = \frac{1}{36}$ | M1 | Independent method to find $P(X \cap Y)$ without multiplication, either stated or by listing/circling numbers on a probability space diagram. OR conditional prob with a single fraction numerator |
| $P(X) \times P(Y) = P(X \cap Y)$, independent | A1 | Numerical comparison and conclusion, www |

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3 A fair six-sided die is thrown twice and the scores are noted. Event $X$ is defined as 'The total of the two scores is 4'. Event $Y$ is defined as 'The first score is 2 or 5'. Are events $X$ and $Y$ independent? Justify your answer.\\

\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S1 2019 Q3 [4]}}