OCR AS Pure 2017 Specimen — Question 5 7 marks

Exam BoardOCR
ModuleAS Pure (AS Pure Mathematics)
Year2017
SessionSpecimen
Marks7
TopicExponential Equations & Modelling
Typelog(y) vs x: convert and interpret
DifficultyModerate -0.8 This is a straightforward logarithmic transformation question requiring basic manipulation of exponential equations and reading values from a graph. Part (a) is routine algebra (taking log of both sides), part (b) involves reading gradient and intercept from a graph then converting back, and part (c) asks for a simple prediction with a standard reliability comment. All techniques are standard AS-level material with no problem-solving insight required.
Spec1.06f Laws of logarithms: addition, subtraction, power rules1.06h Logarithmic graphs: reduce y=ax^n and y=kb^x to linear form2.02c Scatter diagrams and regression lines

A doctors' surgery starts a campaign to reduce missed appointments. The number of missed appointments for each of the first five weeks after the start of the campaign is shown below.
Number of weeks after the start (\(x\))12345
Number of missed appointments (\(y\))235149995938
This data could be modelled by an equation of the form \(y = pq^x\) where \(p\) and \(q\) are constants.
  1. Show that this relationship may be expressed in the form \(\log_{10} y = mx + c\), expressing \(m\) and \(c\) in terms of \(p\) and/or \(q\). [2]
The diagram below shows \(\log_{10} y\) plotted against \(x\), for the given data. \includegraphics{figure_5}
  1. Estimate the values of \(p\) and \(q\). [3]
  2. Use the model to predict when the number of missed appointments will fall below 20. Explain why this answer may not be reliable. [2]

A doctors' surgery starts a campaign to reduce missed appointments.
The number of missed appointments for each of the first five weeks after the start of the campaign is shown below.

\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|}
\hline
Number of weeks after the start ($x$) & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\
\hline
Number of missed appointments ($y$) & 235 & 149 & 99 & 59 & 38 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}

This data could be modelled by an equation of the form $y = pq^x$ where $p$ and $q$ are constants.

\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Show that this relationship may be expressed in the form $\log_{10} y = mx + c$, expressing $m$ and $c$ in terms of $p$ and/or $q$. [2]
\end{enumerate}

The diagram below shows $\log_{10} y$ plotted against $x$, for the given data.

\includegraphics{figure_5}

\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\setcounter{enumi}{1}
\item Estimate the values of $p$ and $q$. [3]

\item Use the model to predict when the number of missed appointments will fall below 20.

Explain why this answer may not be reliable. [2]
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR AS Pure 2017 Q5 [7]}}