OCR MEI S3 2010 June — Question 4 18 marks

Exam BoardOCR MEI
ModuleS3 (Statistics 3)
Year2010
SessionJune
Marks18
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicExponential Distribution
TypeCalculate mean or variance
DifficultyModerate -0.3 This is a standard S3 question testing routine exponential distribution theory and CLT application. Parts (i)-(ii) involve straightforward integration verification and formula derivation using given results. Parts (iii)-(iv) apply standard CLT and hypothesis testing procedures with no novel insight required. While multi-part with 18 marks total, each component is textbook-standard for S3, making it slightly easier than average A-level difficulty.
Spec5.03a Continuous random variables: pdf and cdf5.03c Calculate mean/variance: by integration5.05a Sample mean distribution: central limit theorem

A random variable \(X\) has an exponential distribution with probability density function \(f(x) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x}\) for \(x \geq 0\), where \(\lambda\) is a positive constant.
  1. Verify that \(\int_0^{\infty} f(x) \, dx = 1\) and sketch \(f(x)\). [5]
  2. In this part of the question you may use the following result. $$\int_0^{\infty} x^r e^{-\lambda x} \, dx = \frac{r!}{\lambda^{r+1}} \text{ for } r = 0, 1, 2, \ldots$$ Derive the mean and variance of \(X\) in terms of \(\lambda\). [6]
The random variable \(X\) is used to model the lifetime, in years, of a particular type of domestic appliance. The manufacturer of the appliance states that, based on past experience, the mean lifetime is 6 years.
  1. Let \(\overline{X}\) denote the mean lifetime, in years, of a random sample of 50 appliances. Write down an approximate distribution for \(\overline{X}\). [4]
  2. A random sample of 50 appliances is found to have a mean lifetime of 7.8 years. Does this cast any doubt on the model? [3]

Part (i)
\[\int_0^{\infty} f(x)dx = \int_0^{\infty} \lambda e^{-\lambda x} dx = \left[-e^{-\lambda x}\right]_0^{\infty} = (0 - (-e^0)) = 1\]
AnswerMarks
M1Integration of \(f(x)\).
M1Use of limits or the given result.
A1Convincingly obtained (Answer given.)
Curve, with negative gradient, in the first quadrant only. Must intersect the y-axis.
AnswerMarks
G1
\((0, 2)\) labelled; asymptotic to x-axis.
AnswerMarks
G1[5]
Part (ii)
\[E(X) = \int_0^{\infty} \lambda x e^{-\lambda x} dx = \lambda \cdot \frac{1}{\lambda^2} = \frac{1}{\lambda}\]
AnswerMarks
M1Correct integral.
A1c.a.o. (using given result)
\[E(X^2) = \int_0^{\infty} \lambda x^2 e^{-\lambda x} dx = \lambda \cdot \frac{2}{\lambda^3} = \frac{2}{\lambda^2}\]
AnswerMarks
M1Correct integral.
A1c.a.o. (using given result)
\[\text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - E(X)^2 = \frac{2}{\lambda^2} - \left(\frac{1}{\lambda}\right)^2 = \frac{1}{\lambda^2}\]
AnswerMarks
M1Use of \(E(X^2) - E(X)^2\)
A1
[6]
Part (iii)
\(\mu = 6\); \(\lambda = \frac{1}{6}\)
AnswerMarks
B1Obtained \(\lambda\) from the mean.
B1Normal.
B1Mean. It c's \(\lambda\).
B1Variance. It c's \(\lambda\).
\[\bar{X} \sim \text{(approx)} N\left(6, \frac{6^2}{50}\right)\]
[4]
Part (iv)
EITHER can argue that 7.8 is more than 2 SDs from \(\mu\).
\((6 + 2\sqrt{0.72} = 7.697;\)
must refer to SD(\(\bar{X}\)), not SD(X))
i.e. outlier.
\(\Rightarrow\) doubt.
AnswerMarks
M1
A 95% C.I would be (6.1369, 9.4631).
M1
A1
OR formal significance test:
\[\frac{7.8 - 6}{\sqrt{0.72}} = 2.121, \text{ refer to } N(0,1), \text{ sig at (eg) 5%}\]
\(\Rightarrow\) doubt.
AnswerMarks Guidance
M1
M1Depends on first M, but could imply it. \(P( Z
A1
[3]
## Part (i)
$$\int_0^{\infty} f(x)dx = \int_0^{\infty} \lambda e^{-\lambda x} dx = \left[-e^{-\lambda x}\right]_0^{\infty} = (0 - (-e^0)) = 1$$

| M1 | Integration of $f(x)$. |
| M1 | Use of limits or the given result. |
| A1 | Convincingly obtained (Answer given.) |

Curve, with negative gradient, in the first quadrant only. Must intersect the y-axis.

| G1 | |

$(0, 2)$ labelled; asymptotic to x-axis.

| G1 | [5]

## Part (ii)
$$E(X) = \int_0^{\infty} \lambda x e^{-\lambda x} dx = \lambda \cdot \frac{1}{\lambda^2} = \frac{1}{\lambda}$$

| M1 | Correct integral. |
| A1 | c.a.o. (using given result) |

$$E(X^2) = \int_0^{\infty} \lambda x^2 e^{-\lambda x} dx = \lambda \cdot \frac{2}{\lambda^3} = \frac{2}{\lambda^2}$$

| M1 | Correct integral. |
| A1 | c.a.o. (using given result) |

$$\text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - E(X)^2 = \frac{2}{\lambda^2} - \left(\frac{1}{\lambda}\right)^2 = \frac{1}{\lambda^2}$$

| M1 | Use of $E(X^2) - E(X)^2$ |
| A1 | |

[6]

## Part (iii)
$\mu = 6$; $\lambda = \frac{1}{6}$

| B1 | Obtained $\lambda$ from the mean. |
| B1 | Normal. |
| B1 | Mean. It c's $\lambda$. |
| B1 | Variance. It c's $\lambda$. |

$$\bar{X} \sim \text{(approx)} N\left(6, \frac{6^2}{50}\right)$$

[4]

## Part (iv)
**EITHER** can argue that 7.8 is more than 2 SDs from $\mu$.

$(6 + 2\sqrt{0.72} = 7.697;$

must refer to SD($\bar{X}$), not SD(X))

i.e. outlier.

$\Rightarrow$ doubt.

| M1 | |
| | A 95% C.I would be (6.1369, 9.4631). |
| M1 | |
| A1 | |

**OR** formal significance test:

$$\frac{7.8 - 6}{\sqrt{0.72}} = 2.121, \text{ refer to } N(0,1), \text{ sig at (eg) 5%}$$

$\Rightarrow$ doubt.

| M1 | |
| M1 | Depends on first M, but could imply it. $P(|Z| > 2.121) = 0.0339$ |
| A1 | |

[3]
A random variable $X$ has an exponential distribution with probability density function $f(x) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x}$ for $x \geq 0$, where $\lambda$ is a positive constant.

\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Verify that $\int_0^{\infty} f(x) \, dx = 1$ and sketch $f(x)$. [5]

\item In this part of the question you may use the following result.
$$\int_0^{\infty} x^r e^{-\lambda x} \, dx = \frac{r!}{\lambda^{r+1}} \text{ for } r = 0, 1, 2, \ldots$$

Derive the mean and variance of $X$ in terms of $\lambda$. [6]
\end{enumerate}

The random variable $X$ is used to model the lifetime, in years, of a particular type of domestic appliance. The manufacturer of the appliance states that, based on past experience, the mean lifetime is 6 years.

\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\setcounter{enumi}{2}
\item Let $\overline{X}$ denote the mean lifetime, in years, of a random sample of 50 appliances. Write down an approximate distribution for $\overline{X}$. [4]

\item A random sample of 50 appliances is found to have a mean lifetime of 7.8 years. Does this cast any doubt on the model? [3]
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR MEI S3 2010 Q4 [18]}}