| Exam Board | OCR MEI |
|---|---|
| Module | S3 (Statistics 3) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 18 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Exponential Distribution |
| Type | Calculate mean or variance |
| Difficulty | Moderate -0.3 This is a standard S3 question testing routine exponential distribution theory and CLT application. Parts (i)-(ii) involve straightforward integration verification and formula derivation using given results. Parts (iii)-(iv) apply standard CLT and hypothesis testing procedures with no novel insight required. While multi-part with 18 marks total, each component is textbook-standard for S3, making it slightly easier than average A-level difficulty. |
| Spec | 5.03a Continuous random variables: pdf and cdf5.03c Calculate mean/variance: by integration5.05a Sample mean distribution: central limit theorem |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| M1 | Integration of \(f(x)\). |
| M1 | Use of limits or the given result. |
| A1 | Convincingly obtained (Answer given.) |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| G1 |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| G1 | [5] |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| M1 | Correct integral. |
| A1 | c.a.o. (using given result) |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| M1 | Correct integral. |
| A1 | c.a.o. (using given result) |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| M1 | Use of \(E(X^2) - E(X)^2\) |
| A1 |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| B1 | Obtained \(\lambda\) from the mean. |
| B1 | Normal. |
| B1 | Mean. It c's \(\lambda\). |
| B1 | Variance. It c's \(\lambda\). |
| Answer | Marks |
|---|---|
| M1 | |
| A 95% C.I would be (6.1369, 9.4631). | |
| M1 | |
| A1 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| M1 | ||
| M1 | Depends on first M, but could imply it. \(P( | Z |
| A1 |
## Part (i)
$$\int_0^{\infty} f(x)dx = \int_0^{\infty} \lambda e^{-\lambda x} dx = \left[-e^{-\lambda x}\right]_0^{\infty} = (0 - (-e^0)) = 1$$
| M1 | Integration of $f(x)$. |
| M1 | Use of limits or the given result. |
| A1 | Convincingly obtained (Answer given.) |
Curve, with negative gradient, in the first quadrant only. Must intersect the y-axis.
| G1 | |
$(0, 2)$ labelled; asymptotic to x-axis.
| G1 | [5]
## Part (ii)
$$E(X) = \int_0^{\infty} \lambda x e^{-\lambda x} dx = \lambda \cdot \frac{1}{\lambda^2} = \frac{1}{\lambda}$$
| M1 | Correct integral. |
| A1 | c.a.o. (using given result) |
$$E(X^2) = \int_0^{\infty} \lambda x^2 e^{-\lambda x} dx = \lambda \cdot \frac{2}{\lambda^3} = \frac{2}{\lambda^2}$$
| M1 | Correct integral. |
| A1 | c.a.o. (using given result) |
$$\text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - E(X)^2 = \frac{2}{\lambda^2} - \left(\frac{1}{\lambda}\right)^2 = \frac{1}{\lambda^2}$$
| M1 | Use of $E(X^2) - E(X)^2$ |
| A1 | |
[6]
## Part (iii)
$\mu = 6$; $\lambda = \frac{1}{6}$
| B1 | Obtained $\lambda$ from the mean. |
| B1 | Normal. |
| B1 | Mean. It c's $\lambda$. |
| B1 | Variance. It c's $\lambda$. |
$$\bar{X} \sim \text{(approx)} N\left(6, \frac{6^2}{50}\right)$$
[4]
## Part (iv)
**EITHER** can argue that 7.8 is more than 2 SDs from $\mu$.
$(6 + 2\sqrt{0.72} = 7.697;$
must refer to SD($\bar{X}$), not SD(X))
i.e. outlier.
$\Rightarrow$ doubt.
| M1 | |
| | A 95% C.I would be (6.1369, 9.4631). |
| M1 | |
| A1 | |
**OR** formal significance test:
$$\frac{7.8 - 6}{\sqrt{0.72}} = 2.121, \text{ refer to } N(0,1), \text{ sig at (eg) 5%}$$
$\Rightarrow$ doubt.
| M1 | |
| M1 | Depends on first M, but could imply it. $P(|Z| > 2.121) = 0.0339$ |
| A1 | |
[3]
A random variable $X$ has an exponential distribution with probability density function $f(x) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x}$ for $x \geq 0$, where $\lambda$ is a positive constant.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Verify that $\int_0^{\infty} f(x) \, dx = 1$ and sketch $f(x)$. [5]
\item In this part of the question you may use the following result.
$$\int_0^{\infty} x^r e^{-\lambda x} \, dx = \frac{r!}{\lambda^{r+1}} \text{ for } r = 0, 1, 2, \ldots$$
Derive the mean and variance of $X$ in terms of $\lambda$. [6]
\end{enumerate}
The random variable $X$ is used to model the lifetime, in years, of a particular type of domestic appliance. The manufacturer of the appliance states that, based on past experience, the mean lifetime is 6 years.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\setcounter{enumi}{2}
\item Let $\overline{X}$ denote the mean lifetime, in years, of a random sample of 50 appliances. Write down an approximate distribution for $\overline{X}$. [4]
\item A random sample of 50 appliances is found to have a mean lifetime of 7.8 years. Does this cast any doubt on the model? [3]
\end{enumerate}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR MEI S3 2010 Q4 [18]}}