CAIE S1 2014 November — Question 4 8 marks

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2014
SessionNovember
Marks8
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicDiscrete Probability Distributions
TypeConstruct probability distribution from scenario
DifficultyModerate -0.8 This is a straightforward probability question requiring a simple tree diagram and basic expectation calculation. The scenario is concrete with small numbers (3 choices), the probabilities are simple fractions (1/3, 2/3, 1/2), and finding E(X) involves only multiplying three values and adding them. This is easier than average A-level work as it requires only routine application of basic probability concepts with no problem-solving insight or complex manipulation.
Spec2.03b Probability diagrams: tree, Venn, sample space5.02a Discrete probability distributions: general5.02b Expectation and variance: discrete random variables

Sharik attempts a multiple choice revision question on-line. There are 3 suggested answers, one of which is correct. When Sharik chooses an answer the computer indicates whether the answer is right or wrong. Sharik first chooses one of the three suggested answers at random. If this answer is wrong he has a second try, choosing an answer at random from the remaining 2. If this answer is also wrong Sharik then chooses the remaining answer, which must be correct.
  1. Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to illustrate the various choices that Sharik can make until the computer indicates that he has answered the question correctly. [4]
  2. The random variable \(X\) is the number of attempts that Sharik makes up to and including the one that the computer indicates is correct. Draw up the probability distribution table for \(X\) and find E\((X)\). [4]

(i) W = wrong, C = correct
Two different tree diagrams shown with branching:
First option (3 branches first qn and 2 by 2 for second qn only):
AnswerMarks
- 3 branches first qn and 2 by 2 for second qn onlyM1
- One branch twice for third qn or two branches twice with 0 and 1 seen on branchesM1
- Any two of \(\frac{1}{3}\), \(\frac{1}{3}\) and 1 seen as probsB1
- Probs all correct and sensible labels NB SR for 4 outcomes instead of 3, M1 B1 onlyA1 4
OR
AnswerMarks
- 2 branches first qn and 1 by 2 for second qn onlyM1
- One branch once for third qn or two branches with 0 and 1 seen on branchesM1
- Any two of \(\frac{2}{3}\) or \(\frac{2}{3}\), \(\frac{1}{2}\) and 1 seen as probs or Probs all correct and sensible labelsB1, A1
(ii)
AnswerMarks Guidance
\(x\)1 2
Prob\(\frac{1}{3}\) \(\frac{1}{3}\)
B1\(1, 2, 3\) seen only or
B12 correct probs
B13 correct probs
\[P(1) = P(C) \text{ say } = \frac{1}{3}\]
\[P(2) = P(WC) = \frac{1}{6} \quad P(WC) = \frac{1}{6} \text{ total } P(2) = \frac{1}{3}\]
\[P(3) = P(WWC) = \frac{1}{6} \quad P(WWC) = \frac{1}{6} \text{ total } P(3) = \frac{1}{3}\]
AnswerMarks Guidance
\[E(X) = 1 \times \frac{1}{3} + 2 \times \frac{1}{3} + 3 \times \frac{1}{3} = 2\]B1 \(\checkmark\) 4 Correct answer iff their probs provided \(0.999 \leq \sum p \leq 1\)
**(i)** W = wrong, C = correct

Two different tree diagrams shown with branching:

First option (3 branches first qn and 2 by 2 for second qn only):
- 3 branches first qn and 2 by 2 for second qn only | M1

- One branch twice for third qn or two branches twice with 0 and 1 seen on branches | M1

- Any two of $\frac{1}{3}$, $\frac{1}{3}$ and 1 seen as probs | B1

- Probs all correct and sensible labels NB SR for 4 outcomes instead of 3, M1 B1 only | A1 4

OR

- 2 branches first qn and 1 by 2 for second qn only | M1

- One branch once for third qn or two branches with 0 and 1 seen on branches | M1

- Any two of $\frac{2}{3}$ or $\frac{2}{3}$, $\frac{1}{2}$ and 1 seen as probs or Probs all correct and sensible labels | B1, A1

**(ii)**

| $x$ | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|-----|-------|-------|-------|
| Prob | $\frac{1}{3}$ | $\frac{1}{3}$ | $\frac{1}{3}$ |

| B1 | $1, 2, 3$ seen only or

| B1 | 2 correct probs

| B1 | 3 correct probs

$$P(1) = P(C) \text{ say } = \frac{1}{3}$$

$$P(2) = P(WC) = \frac{1}{6} \quad P(WC) = \frac{1}{6} \text{ total } P(2) = \frac{1}{3}$$

$$P(3) = P(WWC) = \frac{1}{6} \quad P(WWC) = \frac{1}{6} \text{ total } P(3) = \frac{1}{3}$$

$$E(X) = 1 \times \frac{1}{3} + 2 \times \frac{1}{3} + 3 \times \frac{1}{3} = 2$$ | B1 $\checkmark$ 4 | Correct answer iff their probs provided $0.999 \leq \sum p \leq 1$

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Sharik attempts a multiple choice revision question on-line. There are 3 suggested answers, one of which is correct. When Sharik chooses an answer the computer indicates whether the answer is right or wrong. Sharik first chooses one of the three suggested answers at random. If this answer is wrong he has a second try, choosing an answer at random from the remaining 2. If this answer is also wrong Sharik then chooses the remaining answer, which must be correct.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to illustrate the various choices that Sharik can make until the computer indicates that he has answered the question correctly. [4]
\item The random variable $X$ is the number of attempts that Sharik makes up to and including the one that the computer indicates is correct. Draw up the probability distribution table for $X$ and find E$(X)$. [4]
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S1 2014 Q4 [8]}}