CAIE S1 2023 March — Question 6 11 marks

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2023
SessionMarch
Marks11
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicNormal Distribution
TypeMixed calculations with boundaries
DifficultyStandard +0.3 Part (a) is a routine single z-score calculation. Part (b) requires finding two probabilities and raising to the fourth power—straightforward but multi-step. Part (c) involves solving simultaneous equations from two z-scores, which is a standard S1 technique but requires more algebraic manipulation. Overall slightly easier than average due to being mostly procedural with no novel problem-solving required.
Spec2.04e Normal distribution: as model N(mu, sigma^2)2.04f Find normal probabilities: Z transformation

In a cycling event the times taken to complete a course are modelled by a normal distribution with mean 62.3 minutes and standard deviation 8.4 minutes.
  1. Find the probability that a randomly chosen cyclist has a time less than 74 minutes. [2]
  2. Find the probability that 4 randomly chosen cyclists all have times between 50 and 74 minutes. [4]
In a different cycling event, the times can also be modelled by a normal distribution. 23\% of the cyclists have times less than 36 minutes and 10\% of the cyclists have times greater than 54 minutes.
  1. Find estimates for the mean and standard deviation of this distribution. [5]

Question 6:
AnswerMarks
6Recovery within working is allowed, e.g. a notation error in the working where the following line of working makes the candidate’s intent clear.
PMT
9709/52 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme February/March 2023
PUBLISHED
Abbreviations
AEF/OE Any Equivalent Form (of answer is equally acceptable) / Or Equivalent
AG Answer Given on the question paper (so extra checking is needed to ensure that the detailed working leading to the result is valid)
CAO Correct Answer Only (emphasising that no ‘follow through’ from a previous error is allowed)
CWO Correct Working Only
ISW Ignore Subsequent Working
SOI Seen Or Implied
SC Special Case (detailing the mark to be given for a specific wrong solution, or a case where some standard marking practice is to be varied in the
light of a particular circumstance)
WWW Without Wrong Working
AWRT Answer Which Rounds To
© UCLES 2023 Page 5 of 15
AnswerMarks Guidance
QuestionAnswer Marks

AnswerMarks
6(a) 74−62.3
[P(X < 74) =] PZ     =P ( Z 1.393 ) 
AnswerMarks Guidance
 8.4 M1 Use of ± standardisation formula with 74, 62.3 and 8.4
substituted appropriately, not 8.42, not √8.4, no continuity
correction.
AnswerMarks Guidance
= 0.918A1 0.918 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.9185 .
2
AnswerMarks Guidance
QuestionAnswer Marks

AnswerMarks
6(b)50−62.3 74−62.3
[P ( 50 X 74 ) = P] Z  
 8.4 8.4 
AnswerMarks Guidance
[P(−1.464Z 1.393)]M1 Use of ± standardisation formula with both 74 (may be seen in
6(a) if their value seen) & 50, 62.3 and 8.4 substituted
appropriately.
Condone use of 8.42, 8.4 and continuity correction ±0.5
(73.5 or 74.5 and 49.5 or 50.5).
( )+Φ ( )−1
[Φ 1.464 1.393 ]
AnswerMarks Guidance
0.9285 + 0.9182 – 1M1 Calculating the appropriate probability area from stated Φ of
z-values (leading to their final answer > 0.5) but not
symmetrical values.
AnswerMarks Guidance
= 0.847A1 0.8465 ⩽ p < 0.8475 .
SC B1 for 0.8465 ⩽ p < 0.8475 if M0A0 awarded.
AnswerMarks Guidance
( 0.8467 )4 =0.514B1 FT Accept 0.513 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.514 .
FT (their 4-figure p)4, 0 < p < 1.
4

AnswerMarks
6(c)36−
z = =−0.739
1 
54−
z = =1.282
AnswerMarks Guidance
2 B1 −0.740 < z < −0.738 or 0.738 < z < 0.740 .
1 1
AnswerMarks
B1z = ±1.282 (critical value).
2
AnswerMarks
M1Use of the ±standardisation formula once with μ, σ and a z-
value (not 0.23, 0.77, 0.90, 0.10, ±0.261, ±0.282…). Condone
continuity correction ±0.5, not 2, .
Solve, obtaining values for  and σ
AnswerMarks Guidance
=42.6,  =8.91M1 Solve using the elimination method, substitution method or
other appropriate approach to obtain values for both μ and σ.
AnswerMarks
A142.58 ⩽ µ ⩽ 42.6,
8.90 ⩽ σ ⩽ 8.91 .
5
AnswerMarks Guidance
QuestionAnswer Marks
Question 6:
6 | Recovery within working is allowed, e.g. a notation error in the working where the following line of working makes the candidate’s intent clear.
PMT
9709/52 Cambridge International AS & A Level – Mark Scheme February/March 2023
PUBLISHED
Abbreviations
AEF/OE Any Equivalent Form (of answer is equally acceptable) / Or Equivalent
AG Answer Given on the question paper (so extra checking is needed to ensure that the detailed working leading to the result is valid)
CAO Correct Answer Only (emphasising that no ‘follow through’ from a previous error is allowed)
CWO Correct Working Only
ISW Ignore Subsequent Working
SOI Seen Or Implied
SC Special Case (detailing the mark to be given for a specific wrong solution, or a case where some standard marking practice is to be varied in the
light of a particular circumstance)
WWW Without Wrong Working
AWRT Answer Which Rounds To
© UCLES 2023 Page 5 of 15
Question | Answer | Marks | Guidance
--- 6(a) ---
6(a) |  74−62.3
[P(X < 74) =] PZ     =P ( Z 1.393 ) 
 8.4  | M1 | Use of ± standardisation formula with 74, 62.3 and 8.4
substituted appropriately, not 8.42, not √8.4, no continuity
correction.
= 0.918 | A1 | 0.918 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.9185 .
2
Question | Answer | Marks | Guidance
--- 6(b) ---
6(b) | 50−62.3 74−62.3
[P ( 50 X 74 ) = P] Z  
 8.4 8.4 
[P(−1.464Z 1.393)] | M1 | Use of ± standardisation formula with both 74 (may be seen in
6(a) if their value seen) & 50, 62.3 and 8.4 substituted
appropriately.
Condone use of 8.42, 8.4 and continuity correction ±0.5
(73.5 or 74.5 and 49.5 or 50.5).
( )+Φ ( )−1
[Φ 1.464 1.393 ]
0.9285 + 0.9182 – 1 | M1 | Calculating the appropriate probability area from stated Φ of
z-values (leading to their final answer > 0.5) but not
symmetrical values.
= 0.847 | A1 | 0.8465 ⩽ p < 0.8475 .
SC B1 for 0.8465 ⩽ p < 0.8475 if M0A0 awarded.
( 0.8467 )4 =0.514 | B1 FT | Accept 0.513 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.514 .
FT (their 4-figure p)4, 0 < p < 1.
4
--- 6(c) ---
6(c) | 36−
z = =−0.739
1 
54−
z = =1.282
2  | B1 | −0.740 < z < −0.738 or 0.738 < z < 0.740 .
1 1
B1 | z = ±1.282 (critical value).
2
M1 | Use of the ±standardisation formula once with μ, σ and a z-
value (not 0.23, 0.77, 0.90, 0.10, ±0.261, ±0.282…). Condone
continuity correction ±0.5, not 2, .
Solve, obtaining values for  and σ
=42.6,  =8.91 | M1 | Solve using the elimination method, substitution method or
other appropriate approach to obtain values for both μ and σ.
A1 | 42.58 ⩽ µ ⩽ 42.6,
8.90 ⩽ σ ⩽ 8.91 .
5
Question | Answer | Marks | Guidance
In a cycling event the times taken to complete a course are modelled by a normal distribution with mean 62.3 minutes and standard deviation 8.4 minutes.

\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Find the probability that a randomly chosen cyclist has a time less than 74 minutes. [2]

\item Find the probability that 4 randomly chosen cyclists all have times between 50 and 74 minutes. [4]
\end{enumerate}

In a different cycling event, the times can also be modelled by a normal distribution. 23\% of the cyclists have times less than 36 minutes and 10\% of the cyclists have times greater than 54 minutes.

\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\setcounter{enumi}{2}
\item Find estimates for the mean and standard deviation of this distribution. [5]
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S1 2023 Q6 [11]}}