| Exam Board | Edexcel |
|---|---|
| Module | Paper 3 (Paper 3) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 7 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Bivariate data |
| Type | Hypothesis test for correlation |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 This is a straightforward hypothesis test for correlation with standard bookwork parts. The test itself (part a) requires looking up a critical value and comparing, which is routine. Parts (b)-(e) are interpretation questions requiring minimal calculation. While it's a multi-part question worth several marks, each component is standard textbook material with no novel problem-solving or conceptual challenges beyond basic understanding of correlation and regression. |
| Spec | 2.02c Scatter diagrams and regression lines2.05f Pearson correlation coefficient2.05g Hypothesis test using Pearson's r |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| \(H_0: \rho = 0\), \(H_1: \rho < 0\) | B1 | Both hypotheses in terms of \(\rho\) |
| Critical value: \(-0.6215\) (allow any cv in range \(0.5 < | cv | < 0.75\)) |
| \(r < -0.6215\) so significant result and there is evidence of a negative correlation between \(w\) and \(t\) | A1 | Must reject \(H_0\) on basis of comparing \(-0.915\) with \(-0.6215\); must mention "negative", "correlation/relationship" and at least "\(w\)" and "\(t\)" |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| e.g. As temperature increases people spend more time on the beach and less time shopping | B1 | Suitable reason to explain negative correlation using context. Mere description in context is B0. "Less clothes needed as temp increases" is B0 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| Since \(r\) is close to \(-1\), it is consistent with the suggestion | B1 | Suitable reason e.g. "strong"/"significant"/"near perfect" "correlation", \( |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| \(t\) will be the explanatory variable since sales are likely to depend on the temperature | B1 | For identifying \(t\) and giving suitable reason. Need idea that "\(w\) depends on \(t\)" or "\(w\) responds to \(t\)" or "\(t\) affects \(w\)". Just saying "\(t\) is the independent variable" or "\(t\) explains change in \(w\)" is B0 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
| Every degree rise in temperature leads to a drop in weekly earnings of £171 | B1 | Description conveying rate per degree Celsius. Must have 171, condone missing "£" sign |
# Question 2:
## Part (a):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| $H_0: \rho = 0$, $H_1: \rho < 0$ | B1 | Both hypotheses in terms of $\rho$ |
| Critical value: $-0.6215$ (allow any cv in range $0.5 < |cv| < 0.75$) | M1 | Sight of $\pm 0.6215$ or any cv such that $0.5 < |cv| < 0.75$ |
| $r < -0.6215$ so significant result and there is evidence of a negative correlation between $w$ and $t$ | A1 | Must reject $H_0$ on basis of comparing $-0.915$ with $-0.6215$; must mention "negative", "correlation/relationship" and at least "$w$" and "$t$" |
## Part (b):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| e.g. As temperature increases people spend more time on the beach and less time shopping | B1 | Suitable reason to explain negative correlation using context. Mere description in context is B0. "Less clothes needed as temp increases" is B0 |
## Part (c):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Since $r$ is close to $-1$, it is consistent with the suggestion | B1 | Suitable reason e.g. "strong"/"significant"/"near perfect" "correlation", $|r|$ close to 1, and saying it is consistent. Allow "yes" followed by reason |
## Part (d):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| $t$ will be the explanatory variable since sales are likely to depend on the temperature | B1 | For identifying $t$ and giving suitable reason. Need idea that "$w$ depends on $t$" or "$w$ responds to $t$" or "$t$ affects $w$". Just saying "$t$ is the independent variable" or "$t$ explains change in $w$" is B0 |
## Part (e):
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Every degree rise in temperature leads to a drop in weekly earnings of £171 | B1 | Description conveying rate per degree Celsius. Must have 171, condone missing "£" sign |
---
\begin{enumerate}
\item Tessa owns a small clothes shop in a seaside town. She records the weekly sales figures, $\pounds w$, and the average weekly temperature, $t ^ { \circ } \mathrm { C }$, for 8 weeks during the summer.\\
The product moment correlation coefficient for these data is - 0.915\\
(a) Stating your hypotheses clearly and using a $5 \%$ level of significance, test whether or not the correlation between sales figures and average weekly temperature is negative.\\
(b) Suggest a possible reason for this correlation.
\end{enumerate}
Tessa suggests that a linear regression model could be used to model these data.\\
(c) State, giving a reason, whether or not the correlation coefficient is consistent with Tessa's suggestion.\\
(d) State, giving a reason, which variable would be the explanatory variable.
Tessa calculated the linear regression equation as $w = 10755 - 171 t$\\
(e) Give an interpretation of the gradient of this regression equation.
\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel Paper 3 2018 Q2 [7]}}