OCR Further Statistics 2018 September — Question 2 7 marks

Exam BoardOCR
ModuleFurther Statistics (Further Statistics)
Year2018
SessionSeptember
Marks7
TopicGeometric Distribution
TypeMean/expectation of geometric distribution
DifficultyStandard +0.3 This is a straightforward application of geometric distribution expectation after calculating a Poisson probability. Students must recognize the Poisson setup (λ=4 for 20 minutes), find P(Y≥8), then apply E(X)=1/p. The multi-step nature and context make it slightly above average, but the required techniques are standard for Further Statistics.
Spec5.02f Geometric distribution: conditions5.02g Geometric probabilities: P(X=r) = p(1-p)^(r-1)5.02h Geometric: mean 1/p and variance (1-p)/p^2

2 Shooting stars occur randomly, independently of one another and at a constant average rate of 12.0 per hour. On each of a series of randomly chosen clear nights I look for shooting stars for 20 minutes at a time. A successful night is a night on which I see at least 8 shooting stars in a 20 -minute period.
From tomorrow, I will count the number, \(X\), of nights on which I look for shooting stars, up to and including the first successful night. Find \(\mathrm { E } ( X )\).

AnswerMarks Guidance
PoissonM1 Stated or implied
\(\lambda = 4.0\)A1 Stated or implied
\(P(\geq 8)\)M1 0.021363: M1A0
\(= 0.051134\)A1 awrt 0.0511
\(\text{Geo}(0.051134)\)M1 Stated or implied, their \(p\)
Mean \(1/p\)M1 Used
\(= 19.556\ldots\)A1 awrt 19.6
[7]
Poisson | M1 | Stated or implied
$\lambda = 4.0$ | A1 | Stated or implied
$P(\geq 8)$ | M1 | 0.021363: M1A0
$= 0.051134$ | A1 | awrt 0.0511
$\text{Geo}(0.051134)$ | M1 | Stated or implied, their $p$
Mean $1/p$ | M1 | Used
$= 19.556\ldots$ | A1 | awrt 19.6
| [7] |

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2 Shooting stars occur randomly, independently of one another and at a constant average rate of 12.0 per hour. On each of a series of randomly chosen clear nights I look for shooting stars for 20 minutes at a time. A successful night is a night on which I see at least 8 shooting stars in a 20 -minute period.\\
From tomorrow, I will count the number, $X$, of nights on which I look for shooting stars, up to and including the first successful night.

Find $\mathrm { E } ( X )$.

\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR Further Statistics 2018 Q2 [7]}}