SPS SPS ASFM 2020 May — Question 12

Exam BoardSPS
ModuleSPS ASFM (SPS ASFM)
Year2020
SessionMay
TopicPermutations & Arrangements
TypeCorrect ordering probability

12. Alex claims that he can read people's minds. A volunteer, Jane, arranges the integers 1 to \(n\) in an order of Jane's own choice and Alex tells Jane what order he believes was chosen. They agree that Alex's claim will be accepted if he gets the order completely correct or if he gets the order correct apart from two numbers which are the wrong way round. They use a value of \(n\) such that, if Alex chooses the order of the integers at random, the probability that Alex's claim will be accepted is less than \(1 \%\). Determine the smallest possible value of \(n\).