| Exam Board | Edexcel |
|---|---|
| Module | FD2 AS (Further Decision 2 AS) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 11 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Dynamic Programming |
| Type | Zero-sum game optimal mixed strategy |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.8 This is a standard Further Maths zero-sum game problem requiring multiple techniques: checking for saddle points, graphical method for mixed strategies, and solving for optimal probabilities. While methodical, it requires careful execution across 4 parts with potential for arithmetic errors, and the graphical method demands proper interpretation. Significantly harder than typical A-level but routine for FD2 students who've practiced the algorithm. |
| Spec | 7.08a Pay-off matrix: zero-sum games7.08b Dominance: reduce pay-off matrix7.08c Pure strategies: play-safe strategies and stable solutions7.08d Nash equilibrium: identification and interpretation7.08e Mixed strategies: optimal strategy using equations or graphical method7.08f Mixed strategies via LP: reformulate as linear programming problem |
| \cline { 2 - 3 } \multicolumn{1}{c|}{} | B plays \(X\) | B plays \(Y\) |
| A plays \(Q\) | 4 | - 3 |
| A plays \(R\) | 2 | - 1 |
| A plays \(S\) | - 3 | 5 |
| A plays \(T\) | - 1 | 3 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(\text{Row(maximin)} \neq \text{Col(minimax)}\) therefore game is not stable | M1, A1 | 1.1b, 2.4 |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| If A plays T, B's gains: \(p + (-3)(1-p) = -3 + 4p\) | M1, A1 | 1.1b |
| Correct graph with axes and at least two lines correctly drawn | M1dep, A1 | 1.1b |
| \(3 - 7p = -3 + 4p \Rightarrow p = \dfrac{6}{11}\) | A1 | 1.1b |
| B should play option X with probability \(\dfrac{6}{11}\) and option Y with probability \(\dfrac{5}{11}\) | A1ft | 3.2a |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(V(B) = 3 - 7\left(\dfrac{6}{11}\right) = -\dfrac{9}{11} \Rightarrow V(A) = \dfrac{9}{11}\) | B1 | 2.2a |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(q = \dfrac{4}{11}\) | M1 | 3.1b |
| A should play Q with probability \(\dfrac{4}{11}\), options R and S never, and T with probability \(\dfrac{7}{11}\) | A1 | 3.2a |
# Question 3:
## Part (a):
Row minima: $-3, -1, -3, -1$; max is $-1$
Column maxima: $4, 5$; min is $4$
$\text{Row(maximin)} \neq \text{Col(minimax)}$ therefore game is not stable | M1, A1 | 1.1b, 2.4 | M1: Finding row minimums and column maximums — condone one error; A1: Row maximin $(-1) \neq$ col minimax $(4)$ so unstable |
## Part (b):
If A plays Q, B's gains: $-4p + 3(1-p) = 3 - 7p$
If A plays R, B's gains: $-2p + 1(1-p) = 1 - 3p$
If A plays S, B's gains: $3p + (-5)(1-p) = -5 + 8p$
If A plays T, B's gains: $p + (-3)(1-p) = -3 + 4p$ | M1, A1 | 1.1b | M1: Setting up four expressions in $p$; A1: All four correct |
Correct graph with axes and at least two lines correctly drawn | M1dep, A1 | 1.1b | M1dep: Axes correct, at least two lines correctly drawn; A1: Correct graph |
$3 - 7p = -3 + 4p \Rightarrow p = \dfrac{6}{11}$ | A1 | 1.1b | Using graph to obtain correct probability |
B should play option X with probability $\dfrac{6}{11}$ and option Y with probability $\dfrac{5}{11}$ | A1ft | 3.2a | Must refer to play and name options |
## Part (c):
$V(B) = 3 - 7\left(\dfrac{6}{11}\right) = -\dfrac{9}{11} \Rightarrow V(A) = \dfrac{9}{11}$ | B1 | 2.2a | cao |
## Part (d):
If A plays Q with probability $q$ and T with probability $1-q$:
$$4q + (-1)(1-q) = \frac{9}{11}$$
$q = \dfrac{4}{11}$ | M1 | 3.1b | Setting up linear equation with V(A) and two options from (b) |
A should play Q with probability $\dfrac{4}{11}$, options R and S never, and T with probability $\dfrac{7}{11}$ | A1 | 3.2a | Must refer to play and name options |
3. In your answer to this question you must show detailed reasoning.
A two-person zero-sum game is represented by the following pay-off matrix for player A.
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | }
\cline { 2 - 3 }
\multicolumn{1}{c|}{} & B plays $X$ & B plays $Y$ \\
\hline
A plays $Q$ & 4 & - 3 \\
\hline
A plays $R$ & 2 & - 1 \\
\hline
A plays $S$ & - 3 & 5 \\
\hline
A plays $T$ & - 1 & 3 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Verify that there is no stable solution to this game.
Player B plays their option X with probability $p$.
\item Use a graphical method to find the optimal value of $p$ and hence find the best strategy for player B.
\item Find the value of the game to player A .
\item Hence find the best strategy for player A .
\end{enumerate}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel FD2 AS 2021 Q3 [11]}}