OCR MEI Further Statistics Minor 2019 June — Question 4

Exam BoardOCR MEI
ModuleFurther Statistics Minor (Further Statistics Minor)
Year2019
SessionJune
TopicPoisson Distribution
TypeGoodness-of-fit test for Poisson

4 Zara uses a metal detector to search for coins on a beach.
She wonders if the numbers of coins that she finds in an area of \(10 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\) can be modelled by a Poisson distribution. The table below shows the numbers of coins that she finds in randomly chosen areas of \(10 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\) over a period of months.
Number of coins found0123456\(> 6\)
Frequency1328301410230
  1. Software gives the sample mean as 1.98 and the sample standard deviation as 1.4212. Explain how these values suggest that a Poisson distribution may be an appropriate model for the numbers of coins found. Zara decides to carry out a chi-squared test to investigate whether a Poisson distribution is an appropriate model.
    Fig. 4 is a screenshot showing part of the spreadsheet used to analyse the data. Some values in the spreadsheet have been deliberately omitted. \begin{table}[h]
    ABCD
    1Number of coins foundObserved frequencyExpected frequencyChi-squared contribution
    201313.80690.0472
    3128
    423027.06430.3184
    531417.86250.8352
    64108.84190.1517
    7\(\geqslant 5\)50.0015
    \captionsetup{labelformat=empty} \caption{Fig. 4}
    \end{table}
  2. Showing your calculations, find the missing values in each of the following cells.
    • C3
    • C7
    • D3
    • Explain why the numbers for 5, 6 and more than 6 coins found have been combined into the single category of at least 5 coins found, as shown in the spreadsheet.
    • Complete the hypothesis test at the \(5 \%\) level of significance.
    For the rest of this question, you should assume that the number of coins that Zara finds in an area of \(10 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\) can be modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean 1.98.
    Zara also finds pieces of jewellery independently of the coins she finds. The number of pieces of jewellery that she finds per \(10 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\) area is modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean 0.42 .
  3. Find the probability that Zara finds a total of exactly 3 items (coins and/or jewellery) in an area of \(10 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\).
  4. Find the probability that Zara finds a total of at least 30 items (coins and/or jewellery) in an area of \(100 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\).