OCR MEI Further Statistics Minor (Further Statistics Minor) 2019 June

Question 1
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1 In a game at a charity fair, a spinner is spun 4 times.
On each spin the chance that the spinner lands on a score of 5 is 0.2 .
The random variable \(X\) represents the number of spins on which the spinner lands on a score of 5 .
  1. Find \(\mathrm { P } ( X = 3 )\).
  2. Find each of the following.
    • \(\mathrm { E } ( X )\)
    • \(\operatorname { Var } ( X )\)
    One game costs \(\pounds 1\) to play and, for each spin that lands on a score of 5 , the player receives 50 pence.
    1. Find the expected total amount of money gained by a player in one game.
    2. Find the standard deviation of the total amount of money gained by a player in one game.
Question 2
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2 A market researcher wants to interview people who watched a particular television programme. Audience research data used by the broadcaster indicates that \(12 \%\) of the adult population watched this programme. This figure is used to model the situation.
The researcher asks people in a shopping centre, one at a time, if they watched the programme. You should assume that these people form a random sample of the adult population.
  1. Find the probability that the fifth person the researcher asks is the first to have watched the programme.
  2. Find the probability that the researcher has to ask at least 10 people in order to find one who watched the programme.
  3. Find the probability that the twentieth person the researcher asks is the third to have watched the programme.
  4. Find how many people the researcher would have to ask to ensure that there is a probability of at least 0.95 that at least one of them watched the programme.
Question 3
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3 A company has been commissioned to make 50 very expensive titanium components.
A sample of the components needs to be tested to ensure that they are sufficiently strong. However, this is a test to destruction, so the components which are tested can no longer be used.
  1. Explain why it would not be appropriate to use a census in these circumstances. A manager suggests that the first 5 components to be manufactured should be tested.
  2. Explain why this would not be a sensible method of selecting the sample. A statistician advises the manager that the sample selected should be a random sample.
  3. Give two desirable features (other than randomness) that the sample should have.
Question 4
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4 Zara uses a metal detector to search for coins on a beach.
She wonders if the numbers of coins that she finds in an area of \(10 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\) can be modelled by a Poisson distribution. The table below shows the numbers of coins that she finds in randomly chosen areas of \(10 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\) over a period of months.
Number of coins found0123456\(> 6\)
Frequency1328301410230
  1. Software gives the sample mean as 1.98 and the sample standard deviation as 1.4212. Explain how these values suggest that a Poisson distribution may be an appropriate model for the numbers of coins found. Zara decides to carry out a chi-squared test to investigate whether a Poisson distribution is an appropriate model.
    Fig. 4 is a screenshot showing part of the spreadsheet used to analyse the data. Some values in the spreadsheet have been deliberately omitted. \begin{table}[h]
    ABCD
    1Number of coins foundObserved frequencyExpected frequencyChi-squared contribution
    201313.80690.0472
    3128
    423027.06430.3184
    531417.86250.8352
    64108.84190.1517
    7\(\geqslant 5\)50.0015
    \captionsetup{labelformat=empty} \caption{Fig. 4}
    \end{table}
  2. Showing your calculations, find the missing values in each of the following cells.
    • C3
    • C7
    • D3
    • Explain why the numbers for 5, 6 and more than 6 coins found have been combined into the single category of at least 5 coins found, as shown in the spreadsheet.
    • Complete the hypothesis test at the \(5 \%\) level of significance.
    For the rest of this question, you should assume that the number of coins that Zara finds in an area of \(10 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\) can be modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean 1.98.
    Zara also finds pieces of jewellery independently of the coins she finds. The number of pieces of jewellery that she finds per \(10 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\) area is modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean 0.42 .
  3. Find the probability that Zara finds a total of exactly 3 items (coins and/or jewellery) in an area of \(10 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\).
  4. Find the probability that Zara finds a total of at least 30 items (coins and/or jewellery) in an area of \(100 \mathrm {~m} ^ { 2 }\).
Question 5
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5 A student wants to know if there is a positive correlation between the amounts of two pollutants, sulphur dioxide and PM10 particulates, on different days in the area of London in which he lives; these amounts, measured in suitable units, are denoted by \(s\) and \(p\) respectively.
He uses a government website to obtain data for a random sample of 15 days on which the amounts of these pollutants were measured simultaneously. Fig. 5.1 is a scatter diagram showing the data. Summary statistics for these 15 values of \(s\) and \(p\) are as follows.
\(\sum s _ { 1 } = 155.4 \quad \sum p = 518.9 \quad \sum s ^ { 2 } = 2322.7 \quad \sum p ^ { 2 } = 21270.5 \quad \sum s p = 6009.1\) \begin{figure}[h]
\includegraphics[alt={},max width=\textwidth]{4a4d5816-5b53-49a1-b72f-f8bcf3b4e8bc-4_935_1134_683_260} \captionsetup{labelformat=empty} \caption{Fig. 5.1}
\end{figure}
  1. Explain why the student might come to the conclusion that a test based on Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient may be valid.
  2. Find the value of Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient.
  3. Carry out a test at the \(5 \%\) significance level to investigate whether there is positive correlation between the amounts of sulphur dioxide and PM10 particulates.
  4. Explain why the student made sure that the sample chosen was a random sample. The student also wishes to model the relationship between the amounts of nitrogen dioxide \(n\) and PM10 particulates \(p\).
    He takes a random sample of 54 values of the two variables, both measured at the same times. Fig. 5.2 is a scatter diagram which shows the data, together with the regression line of \(n\) on \(p\), the equation of the regression line and the value of \(r ^ { 2 }\). \begin{figure}[h]
    \includegraphics[alt={},max width=\textwidth]{4a4d5816-5b53-49a1-b72f-f8bcf3b4e8bc-5_824_1230_495_258} \captionsetup{labelformat=empty} \caption{Fig. 5.2}
    \end{figure}
  5. Predict the value of \(n\) for \(p = 150\).
  6. Discuss the reliability of your prediction in part (e).
Question 6
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6 The discrete random variable \(X\) has a uniform distribution over \(\{ n , n + 1 , \ldots , 2 n \}\).
  1. Given that \(n\) is odd, find \(\mathrm { P } \left( X < \frac { 3 } { 2 } n \right)\).
  2. Given instead that \(n\) is even, find \(\mathrm { P } \left( X < \frac { 3 } { 2 } n \right)\), giving your answer as a single algebraic fraction.
  3. The sum of 6 independent values of \(X\) is denoted by \(Y\). Find \(\operatorname { Var } ( Y )\).