Edexcel S4 2006 June — Question 5 17 marks

Exam BoardEdexcel
ModuleS4 (Statistics 4)
Year2006
SessionJune
Marks17
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicHypothesis test of a Poisson distribution
TypeFind power function or power value
DifficultyChallenging +1.8 This is a sophisticated Further Maths Statistics question requiring understanding of hypothesis testing framework, power functions, Type I/II errors, and Poisson distribution. Parts (a-b) and (e) involve standard power calculations, but parts (c-d) require optimizing a test criterion under constraints, and part (g) demands interpretation of power function intersections—concepts beyond typical A-level. The multi-part structure with interconnected reasoning and the need to work with power functions (not just basic hypothesis tests) places this well above average difficulty.
Spec2.05a Hypothesis testing language: null, alternative, p-value, significance5.02i Poisson distribution: random events model5.02j Poisson formula: P(X=x) = e^(-lambda)*lambda^x/x!

5. Rolls of cloth delivered to a factory contain defects at an average rate of \(\lambda\) per metre. A quality assurance manager selects a random sample of 15 metres of cloth from each delivery to test whether or not there is evidence that \(\lambda > 0.3\). The criterion that the manager uses for rejecting the hypothesis that \(\lambda = 0.3\) is that there are 9 or more defects in the sample.
  1. Find the size of the test. Table 1 gives some values, to 2 decimal places, of the power function of this test. \begin{table}[h]
    \(\lambda\)0.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
    Power0.150.34\(r\)0.720.850.920.96
    \captionsetup{labelformat=empty} \caption{Table 1}
    \end{table}
  2. Find the value of \(r\). The manager would like to design a test, of whether or not \(\lambda > 0.3\), that uses a smaller length of cloth. He chooses a length of 10 m and requires the probability of a type I error to be less than \(10 \%\).
  3. Find the criterion to reject the hypothesis that \(\lambda = 0.3\) which makes the test as powerful as possible.
  4. Hence state the size of this second test. Table 2 gives some values, to 2 decimal places, of the power function for the test in part (c). \begin{table}[h]
    \(\lambda\)0.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
    Power0.210.380.550.70\(s\)0.880.93
    \captionsetup{labelformat=empty} \caption{Table 2}
    \end{table}
  5. Find the value of \(s\).
  6. Using the same axes, on graph paper draw the graphs of the power functions of these two tests.
    1. State the value of \(\lambda\) where the graphs cross.
    2. Explain the significance of \(\lambda\) being greater than this value. The cost of wrongly rejecting a delivery of cloth with \(\lambda = 0.3\) is low. Deliveries of cloth with \(\lambda > 0.7\) are unusual.
  7. Suggest, giving your reasons, which the test manager should adopt.
    (2)

Question 5:
Part (a)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(X_i =\) no. of defects in 15m, \(X_i \sim Po(4.5)\)M1 Use of \(Po(4.5)\)
\(\text{Size} = P(X_i \geq 9) = 1 - P(X \leq 8) = 1 - 0.9597 = 0.0403\)A1 Awrt (2)
Part (b)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(r = P(X_2 \geq 9 \mid X \sim Po(9)) = 1 - P(X_2 \leq 8) = 1 - 0.4557 = 0.54\)M1A1 Awrt \(0.54\) (2)
Part (c)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(Y_i =\) no. of defects in 10m, \(Y_i \sim Po(3)\)M1 Use of \(Po(3)\) to find \(P(Y \geq c)\)
Require smallest \(c\) so that \(P(Y_i \geq c) < 0.10\). Tables \(Y_i \geq 6\)A1 (2)
Part (d)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(\text{Size} = P(Y_i \geq 6) = 1 - P(Y_i \leq 5) = 1 - 0.9161 = 0.0839\)B1 (1)
Part (e)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
\(s = 1 - P(Y_2 \leq 5 \mid Y_2 \sim Po(8)) = 1 - 0.1912 = 0.8088\)M1A1 Awrt \(0.81\) (2)
Part (f)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
See graphB1, B1 (4)
Part (g)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
(i) \(0.62 \sim 0.67\)B1
(ii) Test 1 is more powerfulB1 (2)
Part (h)
AnswerMarks Guidance
Answer/WorkingMark Guidance
Test 2 has higher \(P(\text{Type I error})\) but cost of this is lowB1 Test 2
Test 2 is more powerful for \(\lambda < 0.7\) and \(\lambda > 0.7\) is rareB1 Reason (2)
# Question 5:

## Part (a)
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $X_i =$ no. of defects in 15m, $X_i \sim Po(4.5)$ | M1 | Use of $Po(4.5)$ |
| $\text{Size} = P(X_i \geq 9) = 1 - P(X \leq 8) = 1 - 0.9597 = 0.0403$ | A1 | Awrt (2) |

## Part (b)
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $r = P(X_2 \geq 9 \mid X \sim Po(9)) = 1 - P(X_2 \leq 8) = 1 - 0.4557 = 0.54$ | M1A1 | Awrt $0.54$ (2) |

## Part (c)
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $Y_i =$ no. of defects in 10m, $Y_i \sim Po(3)$ | M1 | Use of $Po(3)$ to find $P(Y \geq c)$ |
| Require smallest $c$ so that $P(Y_i \geq c) < 0.10$. Tables $Y_i \geq 6$ | A1 | (2) |

## Part (d)
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $\text{Size} = P(Y_i \geq 6) = 1 - P(Y_i \leq 5) = 1 - 0.9161 = 0.0839$ | B1 | (1) |

## Part (e)
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| $s = 1 - P(Y_2 \leq 5 \mid Y_2 \sim Po(8)) = 1 - 0.1912 = 0.8088$ | M1A1 | Awrt $0.81$ (2) |

## Part (f)
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| See graph | B1, B1 | (4) |

## Part (g)
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| (i) $0.62 \sim 0.67$ | B1 | |
| (ii) Test 1 is more powerful | B1 | (2) |

## Part (h)
| Answer/Working | Mark | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Test 2 has higher $P(\text{Type I error})$ but cost of this is low | B1 | Test 2 |
| Test 2 is more powerful for $\lambda < 0.7$ and $\lambda > 0.7$ is rare | B1 | Reason (2) |

---
5. Rolls of cloth delivered to a factory contain defects at an average rate of $\lambda$ per metre. A quality assurance manager selects a random sample of 15 metres of cloth from each delivery to test whether or not there is evidence that $\lambda > 0.3$. The criterion that the manager uses for rejecting the hypothesis that $\lambda = 0.3$ is that there are 9 or more defects in the sample.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Find the size of the test.

Table 1 gives some values, to 2 decimal places, of the power function of this test.

\begin{table}[h]
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | }
\hline
$\lambda$ & 0.4 & 0.5 & 0.6 & 0.7 & 0.8 & 0.9 & 1.0 \\
\hline
Power & 0.15 & 0.34 & $r$ & 0.72 & 0.85 & 0.92 & 0.96 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\captionsetup{labelformat=empty}
\caption{Table 1}
\end{center}
\end{table}
\item Find the value of $r$.

The manager would like to design a test, of whether or not $\lambda > 0.3$, that uses a smaller length of cloth. He chooses a length of 10 m and requires the probability of a type I error to be less than $10 \%$.
\item Find the criterion to reject the hypothesis that $\lambda = 0.3$ which makes the test as powerful as possible.
\item Hence state the size of this second test.

Table 2 gives some values, to 2 decimal places, of the power function for the test in part (c).

\begin{table}[h]
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | c | }
\hline
$\lambda$ & 0.4 & 0.5 & 0.6 & 0.7 & 0.8 & 0.9 & 1.0 \\
\hline
Power & 0.21 & 0.38 & 0.55 & 0.70 & $s$ & 0.88 & 0.93 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\captionsetup{labelformat=empty}
\caption{Table 2}
\end{center}
\end{table}
\item Find the value of $s$.
\item Using the same axes, on graph paper draw the graphs of the power functions of these two tests.
\item \begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item State the value of $\lambda$ where the graphs cross.
\item Explain the significance of $\lambda$ being greater than this value.

The cost of wrongly rejecting a delivery of cloth with $\lambda = 0.3$ is low. Deliveries of cloth with $\lambda > 0.7$ are unusual.
\end{enumerate}\item Suggest, giving your reasons, which the test manager should adopt.\\
(2)
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S4 2006 Q5 [17]}}