Edexcel S3 2008 June — Question 4 11 marks

Exam BoardEdexcel
ModuleS3 (Statistics 3)
Year2008
SessionJune
Marks11
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicLinear combinations of normal random variables
TypeDirect comparison with scalar multiple (different variables)
DifficultyStandard +0.8 This S3 question requires understanding of linear combinations of normal variables and independence. Part (a) is straightforward (sum of normals), but part (b) requires forming the distribution of M - 1.5W, correctly handling the coefficient in the variance calculation (1.5² × 10²), and standardizing. The conceptual step of comparing two scaled random variables elevates this above routine exercises.
Spec2.04e Normal distribution: as model N(mu, sigma^2)5.04a Linear combinations: E(aX+bY), Var(aX+bY)

  1. The weights of adult men are normally distributed with a mean of 84 kg and a standard deviation of 11 kg .
    1. Find the probability that the total weight of 4 randomly chosen adult men is less than 350 kg .
    The weights of adult women are normally distributed with a mean of 62 kg and a standard deviation of 10 kg .
  2. Find the probability that the weight of a randomly chosen adult man is less than one and a half times the weight of a randomly chosen adult woman.

Part (a)
AnswerMarks Guidance
\(X = M_1 + M_2 + M_3 + M_4 \sim N(336, 22^2)\)B1
\(\mu = 336\)B1
\(\sigma^2 = 22^2\) or 484B1
\(P(X < 350) = P\left(Z < \frac{350-336}{22}\right)\)M1
\(= P(Z < 0.64)\)A1
\(=\) awrt 0.738 or 0.739A1 (5 marks)
Part (b)
AnswerMarks Guidance
\(M \sim N(84, 121)\) and \(W \sim N(62, 100)\). Let \(Y = M - 1.5W\)M1
\(E(Y) = 84 - 1.5 \times 62 = -9\)A1
\(\text{Var}(Y) = \text{Var}(M) + 1.5^2 \text{Var}(W)\)M1
\(= 11^2 + 1.5^2 \times 10^2 = 346\)A1
\(P(Y < 0)\), \(= P(Z < 0.48...) =\) awrt 0.684 – 0.686M1, A1 (6 marks)
Guidance Notes:
(a) 2nd B1 for \(\sigma = 22\) or \(\sigma^2 = 22^2\) or 484
M1 for standardising with their mean and standard deviation (ignore direction of inequality)
(b) 1st M1 for attempting to find \(Y\). Need to see \(\pm(M - 1.5W)\) or equiv. May be implied by Var(Y).
1st A1 for a correct value for their \(E(Y)\) i.e. usually \(\pm 9\). Do not give M1A1 for a "lucky" \(\pm 9\).
2nd M1 for attempting Var(Y) e.g. \(... + 1.5^2 \times 10^2\) or \(11^2 + 1.5^2 \times ...\)
3rd M1 for attempt to calculate the correct probability. Must be attempting a probability > 0.5.
Must attempt to standardise with a relevant mean and standard deviation
Using \(\sigma_M^2 = 11\) or \(\sigma_W^2 = 10\) is not a misread.
**Part (a)**

$X = M_1 + M_2 + M_3 + M_4 \sim N(336, 22^2)$ | B1 |

$\mu = 336$ | B1 |

$\sigma^2 = 22^2$ or **484** | B1 |

$P(X < 350) = P\left(Z < \frac{350-336}{22}\right)$ | M1 |

$= P(Z < 0.64)$ | A1 |

$=$ awrt **0.738** or **0.739** | A1 | (5 marks)

**Part (b)**

$M \sim N(84, 121)$ and $W \sim N(62, 100)$. Let $Y = M - 1.5W$ | M1 |

$E(Y) = 84 - 1.5 \times 62 = -9$ | A1 |

$\text{Var}(Y) = \text{Var}(M) + 1.5^2 \text{Var}(W)$ | M1 |

$= 11^2 + 1.5^2 \times 10^2 = 346$ | A1 |

$P(Y < 0)$, $= P(Z < 0.48...) =$ awrt **0.684 – 0.686** | M1, A1 | (6 marks)

**Guidance Notes:**

(a) 2nd B1 for $\sigma = 22$ or $\sigma^2 = 22^2$ or 484

M1 for standardising with their mean and standard deviation (ignore direction of inequality)

(b) 1st M1 for attempting to find $Y$. Need to see $\pm(M - 1.5W)$ or equiv. May be implied by Var(Y).

1st A1 for a correct value for their $E(Y)$ i.e. usually $\pm 9$. Do not give M1A1 for a "lucky" $\pm 9$.

2nd M1 for attempting Var(Y) e.g. $... + 1.5^2 \times 10^2$ or $11^2 + 1.5^2 \times ...$

3rd M1 for attempt to calculate the correct probability. Must be attempting a probability > 0.5.

Must attempt to standardise with a relevant mean and standard deviation

Using $\sigma_M^2 = 11$ or $\sigma_W^2 = 10$ is not a misread.

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\begin{enumerate}
  \item The weights of adult men are normally distributed with a mean of 84 kg and a standard deviation of 11 kg .\\
(a) Find the probability that the total weight of 4 randomly chosen adult men is less than 350 kg .
\end{enumerate}

The weights of adult women are normally distributed with a mean of 62 kg and a standard deviation of 10 kg .\\
(b) Find the probability that the weight of a randomly chosen adult man is less than one and a half times the weight of a randomly chosen adult woman.

\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S3 2008 Q4 [11]}}