| Exam Board | Edexcel |
|---|---|
| Module | S3 (Statistics 3) |
| Year | 2008 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 11 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Linear combinations of normal random variables |
| Type | Direct comparison with scalar multiple (different variables) |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.8 This S3 question requires understanding of linear combinations of normal variables and independence. Part (a) is straightforward (sum of normals), but part (b) requires forming the distribution of M - 1.5W, correctly handling the coefficient in the variance calculation (1.5² × 10²), and standardizing. The conceptual step of comparing two scaled random variables elevates this above routine exercises. |
| Spec | 2.04e Normal distribution: as model N(mu, sigma^2)5.04a Linear combinations: E(aX+bY), Var(aX+bY) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(X = M_1 + M_2 + M_3 + M_4 \sim N(336, 22^2)\) | B1 | |
| \(\mu = 336\) | B1 | |
| \(\sigma^2 = 22^2\) or 484 | B1 | |
| \(P(X < 350) = P\left(Z < \frac{350-336}{22}\right)\) | M1 | |
| \(= P(Z < 0.64)\) | A1 | |
| \(=\) awrt 0.738 or 0.739 | A1 | (5 marks) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(M \sim N(84, 121)\) and \(W \sim N(62, 100)\). Let \(Y = M - 1.5W\) | M1 | |
| \(E(Y) = 84 - 1.5 \times 62 = -9\) | A1 | |
| \(\text{Var}(Y) = \text{Var}(M) + 1.5^2 \text{Var}(W)\) | M1 | |
| \(= 11^2 + 1.5^2 \times 10^2 = 346\) | A1 | |
| \(P(Y < 0)\), \(= P(Z < 0.48...) =\) awrt 0.684 – 0.686 | M1, A1 | (6 marks) |
**Part (a)**
$X = M_1 + M_2 + M_3 + M_4 \sim N(336, 22^2)$ | B1 |
$\mu = 336$ | B1 |
$\sigma^2 = 22^2$ or **484** | B1 |
$P(X < 350) = P\left(Z < \frac{350-336}{22}\right)$ | M1 |
$= P(Z < 0.64)$ | A1 |
$=$ awrt **0.738** or **0.739** | A1 | (5 marks)
**Part (b)**
$M \sim N(84, 121)$ and $W \sim N(62, 100)$. Let $Y = M - 1.5W$ | M1 |
$E(Y) = 84 - 1.5 \times 62 = -9$ | A1 |
$\text{Var}(Y) = \text{Var}(M) + 1.5^2 \text{Var}(W)$ | M1 |
$= 11^2 + 1.5^2 \times 10^2 = 346$ | A1 |
$P(Y < 0)$, $= P(Z < 0.48...) =$ awrt **0.684 – 0.686** | M1, A1 | (6 marks)
**Guidance Notes:**
(a) 2nd B1 for $\sigma = 22$ or $\sigma^2 = 22^2$ or 484
M1 for standardising with their mean and standard deviation (ignore direction of inequality)
(b) 1st M1 for attempting to find $Y$. Need to see $\pm(M - 1.5W)$ or equiv. May be implied by Var(Y).
1st A1 for a correct value for their $E(Y)$ i.e. usually $\pm 9$. Do not give M1A1 for a "lucky" $\pm 9$.
2nd M1 for attempting Var(Y) e.g. $... + 1.5^2 \times 10^2$ or $11^2 + 1.5^2 \times ...$
3rd M1 for attempt to calculate the correct probability. Must be attempting a probability > 0.5.
Must attempt to standardise with a relevant mean and standard deviation
Using $\sigma_M^2 = 11$ or $\sigma_W^2 = 10$ is not a misread.
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\begin{enumerate}
\item The weights of adult men are normally distributed with a mean of 84 kg and a standard deviation of 11 kg .\\
(a) Find the probability that the total weight of 4 randomly chosen adult men is less than 350 kg .
\end{enumerate}
The weights of adult women are normally distributed with a mean of 62 kg and a standard deviation of 10 kg .\\
(b) Find the probability that the weight of a randomly chosen adult man is less than one and a half times the weight of a randomly chosen adult woman.
\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S3 2008 Q4 [11]}}