| Exam Board | Edexcel |
|---|---|
| Module | AS Paper 2 (AS Paper 2) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 8 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Discrete Probability Distributions |
| Type | Sum or product of two independent values |
| Difficulty | Standard +0.3 This is a straightforward discrete probability question requiring basic probability calculations for independent events (part a) and solving simultaneous equations from probability conditions (part b). While part (b) requires some algebraic manipulation to find m and n, the conceptual demands are minimal—students just need to enumerate the four possible outcomes and match probabilities. This is slightly easier than average as it's a standard textbook exercise with clear structure and no novel problem-solving required. |
| Spec | 2.04a Discrete probability distributions5.02a Discrete probability distributions: general |
| \(r\) | 2 | 3 |
| \(\mathrm { P } ( R = r )\) | \(\frac { 1 } { 4 }\) | \(\frac { 3 } { 4 }\) |
| \(g\) | 1 | 4 |
| \(\mathrm { P } ( G = g )\) | \(\frac { 2 } { 3 }\) | \(\frac { 1 } { 3 }\) |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| 5(a)(i) Require \(R = 3\) and \(G = 4\) so probability is \(\frac{3}{4} \times \frac{1}{3}\) | M1 | AO 2.1 |
| \(= \frac{1}{4}\) or 0.25 | A1 | AO 1.1b |
| 5(a)(ii) \([R \text{ must be } 2 \text{ and } G = 1 \text{ so } \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{2}{3} = ] \frac{1}{6}\) | A1 | AO 1.1b |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| 5(b) \(P(X = 50) = 0.25\) must mean \(R = 3\) and \(G = 4\) so \(3m + 4n = 50\) | M1 | AO 3.1a |
| A1 | AO 1.1b | |
| \(P(X = 20) = \frac{1}{6} \Rightarrow R = 2, G = 1\) so \(2m + n = 20\) | A1 | AO 2.1 |
| Solving: \(3m + 4(20 - 2m) = 50\) (o.e.) | M1 | AO 1.1b |
| \(m = 6\) and \(n = 8\) | A1 | AO 3.2a |
**5(a)(i)** Require $R = 3$ and $G = 4$ so probability is $\frac{3}{4} \times \frac{1}{3}$ | M1 | AO 2.1
$= \frac{1}{4}$ or **0.25** | A1 | AO 1.1b
**5(a)(ii)** $[R \text{ must be } 2 \text{ and } G = 1 \text{ so } \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{2}{3} = ] \frac{1}{6}$ | A1 | AO 1.1b
**Total: 3 marks**
**5(b)** $P(X = 50) = 0.25$ must mean $R = 3$ and $G = 4$ so $3m + 4n = 50$ | M1 | AO 3.1a
| A1 | AO 1.1b
$P(X = 20) = \frac{1}{6} \Rightarrow R = 2, G = 1$ so $2m + n = 20$ | A1 | AO 2.1
Solving: $3m + 4(20 - 2m) = 50$ (o.e.) | M1 | AO 1.1b
**$m = 6$ and $n = 8$** | A1 | AO 3.2a
**Total: 5 marks**
**Grand Total: 8 marks**
**Notes:**
**(a)(i)** M1 for sight of $\frac{3}{4} \times \frac{1}{3}$ or $\frac{1}{4} \times \frac{2}{3}$ as a single product BUT allow e.g. $\frac{3}{4} \times \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{3}{4}$ to score M1. However if the products are later added e.g. $\frac{3}{4} \times \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{3}{4}$ it is M0. May be implied by one correct answer to (i) or (ii).
A1 for $\frac{1}{4}$ or 0.25 or exact equivalent (allow 25%)
**(a)(ii)** A1 for $\frac{1}{6}$ or exact equivalent
**(b)** For the **1st 4 marks** condone incorrect labelling e.g. $R$ for $m$ or $G$ for $n$ if intention is clear.
1st M1 for identifying either set of cases $(R = 2, G = 1, X = 20)$ or $(R = 3, G = 4, X = 50)$. Allow 1st M1 for $P(X = 20) = \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{3}{4}$ or $P(X = 50) = \frac{3}{4} \times \frac{1}{4}$ NOT just $P(X = 20) = \frac{1}{6}$ etc.
or $\frac{1}{4}m + \frac{3}{4}n = 20$ or $\frac{3}{4}m + \frac{1}{4}n = 50$ and might score 2nd M1 (answer is $m = 64, n = 6$)
or $\frac{1}{4}m + \frac{3}{4}n = \frac{1}{4}$ or $\frac{3}{4}m + \frac{1}{4}n = \frac{1}{4}$ and might score 2nd M1 (answer is $m = \frac{5}{15}, n = \frac{-5}{20}$)
or $2m + n = \frac{1}{4}$ or $3m + 4n = \frac{1}{4}$ and might score 2nd M1 (answer is $m = \frac{5}{12}, n = 0$)
or $2m + n = 50$ **and** $3m + 4n = 20$ and might score 2nd M1 (answer is $m = 36, n = -22$)
1st A1 for one correct equation
2nd A1 for **both** correct equations and no incorrect equations, unless they attempt to solve the correct 2 equations only
2nd M1 for attempt to solve their linear equations in $m$ and $n$ (reduce to an equation in one variable, condone one sign error). May be implied by $m = 6$ and $n = 8$.
**Calc** If they use one of the 4 sets of equations for 1st M1 and use a calculator to write down the answer, we will allow this mark for sight of the correct answers to those equations as given above.
3rd A1 $m = 6$ and $n = 8$ only (no incorrect labelling here). Correct answer by trial can score 5/5 if no incorrect working seen.
5. Manon has two biased spinners, one red and one green.
The random variable $R$ represents the score when the red spinner is spun.\\
The random variable $G$ represents the score when the green spinner is spun.\\
The probability distributions for $R$ and $G$ are given below.
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | }
\hline
$r$ & 2 & 3 \\
\hline
$\mathrm { P } ( R = r )$ & $\frac { 1 } { 4 }$ & $\frac { 3 } { 4 }$ \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ | c | c | c | }
\hline
$g$ & 1 & 4 \\
\hline
$\mathrm { P } ( G = g )$ & $\frac { 2 } { 3 }$ & $\frac { 1 } { 3 }$ \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
Manon spins each spinner once and adds the two scores.
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item Find the probability that
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\roman*)]
\item the sum of the two scores is 7
\item the sum of the two scores is less than 4
The random variable $X = m R + n G$ where $m$ and $n$ are integers.
$$\mathrm { P } ( X = 20 ) = \frac { 1 } { 6 } \quad \text { and } \quad \mathrm { P } ( X = 50 ) = \frac { 1 } { 4 }$$
\end{enumerate}\item Find the value of $m$ and the value of $n$
\end{enumerate}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel AS Paper 2 2022 Q5 [8]}}