5 Each day that Adam is at work he carries out one of three tasks A, B or C. Each task takes a whole day. Adam chooses the task to carry out on each day according to the following set of three rules.
- If, on any given day, he has worked on task A then the next day he will choose task A with probability 0.75 , and tasks B and C with equal probability.
- If, on any given day, he has worked on task B then the next day he will choose task B or task C with equal probability but will never choose task A .
- If, on any given day, he has worked on task C then the next day he will choose task A with probability \(p\) and tasks B and C with equal probability.
- Write down the transition matrix.
- Over a long period Adam carries out the tasks \(\mathrm { A } , \mathrm { B }\) and C with equal frequency. Find the value of \(p\).
- On day 1 Adam chooses task A . Find the probability that he also chooses task A on day 5 .
Adam decides to change rule 3 as follows.
If, on any given day, he has worked on task C then the next day he will choose tasks \(\mathrm { A } , \mathrm { B } , \mathrm { C }\) with probabilities \(0.4,0.3,0.3\) respectively. - On day 1 Adam chooses task A. Find the probability that he chooses the same task on day 7 as he did on day 4 .
- On a particular day, Adam chooses task A. Find the expected number of consecutive further days on which he will choose A.
Adam changes all three rules again as follows.
- If he works on A one day then on the next day he chooses C .
- If he works on B one day then on the next day he chooses A or C each with probability 0.5.
- If he works on C one day then on the next day he chooses A or B each with probability 0.5 .
- Find the long term probabilities for each task.