OCR MEI S2 2009 January — Question 2

Exam BoardOCR MEI
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2009
SessionJanuary
TopicApproximating the Binomial to the Poisson distribution
TypeJustify Poisson approximation only

2 Clover stems usually have three leaves. Occasionally a clover stem has four leaves. This is considered by some to be lucky and is known as a four-leaf clover. On average 1 in 10000 clover stems is a four-leaf clover. You may assume that four-leaf clovers occur randomly and independently. A random sample of 5000 clover stems is selected.
  1. State the exact distribution of \(X\), the number of four-leaf clovers in the sample.
  2. Explain why \(X\) may be approximated by a Poisson distribution. Write down the mean of this Poisson distribution.
  3. Use this Poisson distribution to find the probability that the sample contains at least one four-leaf clover.
  4. Find the probability that in 20 samples, each of 5000 clover stems, there are exactly 9 samples which contain at least one four-leaf clover.
  5. Find the expected number of these 20 samples which contain at least one four-leaf clover. The table shows the numbers of four-leaf clovers in these 20 samples.
    Number of four-leaf clovers012\(> 2\)
    Number of samples11720
  6. Calculate the mean and variance of the data in the table.
  7. Briefly comment on whether your answers to parts (v) and (vi) support the use of the Poisson approximating distribution in part (iii).