OCR S1 2009 January — Question 3 10 marks

Exam BoardOCR
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2009
SessionJanuary
Marks10
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicGeometric Distribution
TypeMean/expectation of geometric distribution
DifficultyModerate -0.8 This is a straightforward application of standard geometric and binomial distribution formulas from S1. Part (i) requires direct substitution into geometric distribution probability formulas, part (ii) is recall of the expectation formula E(X)=1/p, and part (iii) is a standard binomial calculation. All parts are routine textbook exercises with no problem-solving or insight required.
Spec5.02c Linear coding: effects on mean and variance5.02f Geometric distribution: conditions5.02g Geometric probabilities: P(X=r) = p(1-p)^(r-1)5.02h Geometric: mean 1/p and variance (1-p)/p^2

3 Erika is a birdwatcher. The probability that she will see a woodpecker on any given day is \(\frac { 1 } { 8 }\). It is assumed that this probability is unaffected by whether she has seen a woodpecker on any other day.
  1. Calculate the probability that Erika first sees a woodpecker
    1. on the third day,
    2. after the third day.
    3. Find the expectation of the number of days up to and including the first day on which she sees a woodpecker.
    4. Calculate the probability that she sees a woodpecker on exactly 2 days in the first 15 days.

3 Erika is a birdwatcher. The probability that she will see a woodpecker on any given day is $\frac { 1 } { 8 }$. It is assumed that this probability is unaffected by whether she has seen a woodpecker on any other day.\\
(i) Calculate the probability that Erika first sees a woodpecker
\begin{enumerate}[label=(\alph*)]
\item on the third day,
\item after the third day.\\
(ii) Find the expectation of the number of days up to and including the first day on which she sees a woodpecker.\\
(iii) Calculate the probability that she sees a woodpecker on exactly 2 days in the first 15 days.
\end{enumerate}

\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR S1 2009 Q3 [10]}}