Edexcel S1 2017 January — Question 5 6 marks

Exam BoardEdexcel
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2017
SessionJanuary
Marks6
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicTree Diagrams
TypeFind unknown probability parameter
DifficultyModerate -0.3 This is a standard tree diagram problem requiring application of the law of total probability to find an unknown parameter, then Bayes' theorem for conditional probability. While it involves multiple steps (4-5 marks typical), the setup is straightforward with clearly defined probabilities, and the algebraic manipulation is routine. Slightly easier than average due to the formulaic nature of S1 tree diagram questions.
Spec2.03b Probability diagrams: tree, Venn, sample space2.03c Conditional probability: using diagrams/tables2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles

  1. In a survey, people were asked if they use a computer every day.
Of those people under 50 years old, \(80 \%\) said they use computer every day. Of those people aged 50 or more, \(55 \%\) said they use computer every day. The proportion of people in the survey under 50 years old is \(p\)
  1. Draw a tree diagram to represent this information. In the survey, 70\% of all people said they use computer every day.
  2. Find the value of \(p\) One person is selected at random. Given that this person uses a computer every day,
  3. find the probability that this person is under 50 years old.
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AnswerMarks Guidance
PartAnswer/Working Marks
(a)Tree diagram with: Age branch (\(p\), \(< 50\) and \(\geq 50\) condone \(> 50\)) and Computer use branch (0.80, 0.20 daily and not daily for \(< 50\); 0.55, 0.45 daily and not daily for \(\geq 50\)) B1, B1
(2)
(b)\(p \times 0.80 + (1-p) \times 0.55 = 0.70\) M1
\(p = 0.6\)A1 A1 for 0.6 [condone 60%] (Correct answer only will score M1A1)
(2)
(c)\([P(< 50 \mid \text{use computer daily}) =] \frac{P(< 50 \cap \text{use computer daily})}{P(\text{use computer daily})} = \frac{\text{'0.6'} \times 0.80}{0.70}\) M1
\(= \frac{48}{70}\)A1oe A1oe for \(\frac{48}{70}\) or an exact equivalent e.g. \(\frac{24}{35}\) (Correct answer only is M1A1)
Allow awrt 0.686 following a correct expression. [68.6% is A0]
(2)
[6 marks]
| Part | Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|------|---|---|---|
| (a) | Tree diagram with: Age branch ($p$, $< 50$ and $\geq 50$ condone $> 50$) and Computer use branch (0.80, 0.20 daily and not daily for $< 50$; 0.55, 0.45 daily and not daily for $\geq 50$) | B1, B1 | 1st B1 for correct shape (2 branches then 4 branches) and correct labels on first set of branches ($p$, $< 50$ and $\geq 50$ condone $> 50$). 2nd B1 for correct labels on second set of branches (0.80, 0.55, daily and not daily). Allow 0.8p and 0.55(1-p) on or at the end of the appropriate branches. NB they do not require the probabilities in brackets for either of these two marks. Allow labels U(use) and $U'$ or N and NE. Condone 80% and 55% etc on tree diagram and in (b). |
| | | (2) | |
| (b) | $p \times 0.80 + (1-p) \times 0.55 = 0.70$ | M1 | M1 for a correct equation to find $p$ using their tree diagram. |
| | | $p = 0.6$ | A1 | A1 for 0.6 [condone 60%] (Correct answer only will score M1A1) |
| | | (2) | |
| (c) | $[P(< 50 \mid \text{use computer daily}) =] \frac{P(< 50 \cap \text{use computer daily})}{P(\text{use computer daily})} = \frac{\text{'0.6'} \times 0.80}{0.70}$ | M1 | M1 for a correct expression with 0.70 substituted correctly and numerator $<$ denominator or correct ratio of probabilities f.t. their $p$ provided $0 < p < \frac{2}{3}$. |
| | | $= \frac{48}{70}$ | A1oe | A1oe for $\frac{48}{70}$ or an exact equivalent e.g. $\frac{24}{35}$ (Correct answer only is M1A1) |
| | | | Allow awrt 0.686 following a correct expression. [68.6% is A0] |
| | | (2) | |
| | | [6 marks] | |
\begin{enumerate}
  \item In a survey, people were asked if they use a computer every day.
\end{enumerate}

Of those people under 50 years old, $80 \%$ said they use computer every day. Of those people aged 50 or more, $55 \%$ said they use computer every day.

The proportion of people in the survey under 50 years old is $p$\\
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.

In the survey, 70\% of all people said they use computer every day.\\
(b) Find the value of $p$

One person is selected at random. Given that this person uses a computer every day,\\
(c) find the probability that this person is under 50 years old.\\

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\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S1 2017 Q5 [6]}}