| Exam Board | Edexcel |
|---|---|
| Module | S1 (Statistics 1) |
| Year | 2017 |
| Session | January |
| Marks | 6 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Tree Diagrams |
| Type | Find unknown probability parameter |
| Difficulty | Moderate -0.3 This is a standard tree diagram problem requiring application of the law of total probability to find an unknown parameter, then Bayes' theorem for conditional probability. While it involves multiple steps (4-5 marks typical), the setup is straightforward with clearly defined probabilities, and the algebraic manipulation is routine. Slightly easier than average due to the formulaic nature of S1 tree diagram questions. |
| Spec | 2.03b Probability diagrams: tree, Venn, sample space2.03c Conditional probability: using diagrams/tables2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Part | Answer/Working | Marks |
| (a) | Tree diagram with: Age branch (\(p\), \(< 50\) and \(\geq 50\) condone \(> 50\)) and Computer use branch (0.80, 0.20 daily and not daily for \(< 50\); 0.55, 0.45 daily and not daily for \(\geq 50\)) | B1, B1 |
| (2) | ||
| (b) | \(p \times 0.80 + (1-p) \times 0.55 = 0.70\) | M1 |
| \(p = 0.6\) | A1 | A1 for 0.6 [condone 60%] (Correct answer only will score M1A1) |
| (2) | ||
| (c) | \([P(< 50 \mid \text{use computer daily}) =] \frac{P(< 50 \cap \text{use computer daily})}{P(\text{use computer daily})} = \frac{\text{'0.6'} \times 0.80}{0.70}\) | M1 |
| \(= \frac{48}{70}\) | A1oe | A1oe for \(\frac{48}{70}\) or an exact equivalent e.g. \(\frac{24}{35}\) (Correct answer only is M1A1) |
| Allow awrt 0.686 following a correct expression. [68.6% is A0] | ||
| (2) | ||
| [6 marks] |
| Part | Answer/Working | Marks | Guidance |
|------|---|---|---|
| (a) | Tree diagram with: Age branch ($p$, $< 50$ and $\geq 50$ condone $> 50$) and Computer use branch (0.80, 0.20 daily and not daily for $< 50$; 0.55, 0.45 daily and not daily for $\geq 50$) | B1, B1 | 1st B1 for correct shape (2 branches then 4 branches) and correct labels on first set of branches ($p$, $< 50$ and $\geq 50$ condone $> 50$). 2nd B1 for correct labels on second set of branches (0.80, 0.55, daily and not daily). Allow 0.8p and 0.55(1-p) on or at the end of the appropriate branches. NB they do not require the probabilities in brackets for either of these two marks. Allow labels U(use) and $U'$ or N and NE. Condone 80% and 55% etc on tree diagram and in (b). |
| | | (2) | |
| (b) | $p \times 0.80 + (1-p) \times 0.55 = 0.70$ | M1 | M1 for a correct equation to find $p$ using their tree diagram. |
| | | $p = 0.6$ | A1 | A1 for 0.6 [condone 60%] (Correct answer only will score M1A1) |
| | | (2) | |
| (c) | $[P(< 50 \mid \text{use computer daily}) =] \frac{P(< 50 \cap \text{use computer daily})}{P(\text{use computer daily})} = \frac{\text{'0.6'} \times 0.80}{0.70}$ | M1 | M1 for a correct expression with 0.70 substituted correctly and numerator $<$ denominator or correct ratio of probabilities f.t. their $p$ provided $0 < p < \frac{2}{3}$. |
| | | $= \frac{48}{70}$ | A1oe | A1oe for $\frac{48}{70}$ or an exact equivalent e.g. $\frac{24}{35}$ (Correct answer only is M1A1) |
| | | | Allow awrt 0.686 following a correct expression. [68.6% is A0] |
| | | (2) | |
| | | [6 marks] | |
\begin{enumerate}
\item In a survey, people were asked if they use a computer every day.
\end{enumerate}
Of those people under 50 years old, $80 \%$ said they use computer every day. Of those people aged 50 or more, $55 \%$ said they use computer every day.
The proportion of people in the survey under 50 years old is $p$\\
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.
In the survey, 70\% of all people said they use computer every day.\\
(b) Find the value of $p$
One person is selected at random. Given that this person uses a computer every day,\\
(c) find the probability that this person is under 50 years old.\\
\href{http://PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com}{PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com}
\hfill \mbox{\textit{Edexcel S1 2017 Q5 [6]}}