Find unknown probability parameter

A question is this type if and only if it requires solving for an unknown probability value (often denoted by a variable like x, p, or q) given information about combined or conditional probabilities.

7 questions · Moderate -0.4

2.03c Conditional probability: using diagrams/tables2.03d Calculate conditional probability: from first principles
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CAIE S1 2006 June Q2
6 marks Moderate -0.8
2 The probability that Henk goes swimming on any day is 0.2 . On a day when he goes swimming, the probability that Henk has burgers for supper is 0.75 . On a day when he does not go swimming the probability that he has burgers for supper is \(x\). This information is shown on the following tree diagram. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{14e8a601-2180-4491-9336-cafd262f2596-2_693_1038_845_555} The probability that Henk has burgers for supper on any day is 0.5 .
  1. Find \(x\).
  2. Given that Henk has burgers for supper, find the probability that he went swimming that day.
CAIE S1 2015 June Q4
7 marks Standard +0.3
4 \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{c0c7e038-805a-4237-a579-a6571b84f337-2_451_1530_1393_303} A survey is undertaken to investigate how many photos people take on a one-week holiday and also how many times they view past photos. For a randomly chosen person, the probability of taking fewer than 100 photos is \(x\). The probability that these people view past photos at least 3 times is 0.76 . For those who take at least 100 photos, the probability that they view past photos fewer than 3 times is 0.90 . This information is shown in the tree diagram. The probability that a randomly chosen person views past photos fewer than 3 times is 0.801 .
  1. Find \(x\).
  2. Given that a person views past photos at least 3 times, find the probability that this person takes at least 100 photos.
CAIE S1 2018 June Q3
6 marks Moderate -0.3
3 The members of a swimming club are classified either as 'Advanced swimmers' or 'Beginners'. The proportion of members who are male is \(x\), and the proportion of males who are Beginners is 0.7 . The proportion of females who are Advanced swimmers is 0.55 . This information is shown in the tree diagram. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{dd75fa20-fead-48d6-aff4-c5e733769f9f-04_435_974_482_587} For a randomly chosen member, the probability of being an Advanced swimmer is the same as the probability of being a Beginner.
  1. Find \(x\).
  2. Given that a randomly chosen member is an Advanced swimmer, find the probability that the member is male.
CAIE S1 2017 November Q5
7 marks Moderate -0.8
5 Over a period of time Julian finds that on long-distance flights he flies economy class on \(82 \%\) of flights. On the rest of the flights he flies first class. When he flies economy class, the probability that he gets a good night's sleep is \(x\). When he flies first class, the probability that he gets a good night's sleep is 0.9 .
  1. Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to illustrate this situation. The probability that Julian gets a good night's sleep on a randomly chosen flight is 0.285 .
  2. Find the value of \(x\).
  3. Given that on a particular flight Julian does not get a good night's sleep, find the probability that he is flying economy class.
Edexcel S1 2017 January Q5
6 marks Moderate -0.3
  1. In a survey, people were asked if they use a computer every day.
Of those people under 50 years old, \(80 \%\) said they use computer every day. Of those people aged 50 or more, \(55 \%\) said they use computer every day. The proportion of people in the survey under 50 years old is \(p\)
  1. Draw a tree diagram to represent this information. In the survey, 70\% of all people said they use computer every day.
  2. Find the value of \(p\) One person is selected at random. Given that this person uses a computer every day,
  3. find the probability that this person is under 50 years old.
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Edexcel S1 2017 June Q4
12 marks Moderate -0.3
4.The partially completed tree diagram,where \(p\) and \(q\) are probabilities,gives information about Andrew's journey to work each day. \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{7d45bacd-20ac-49b4-8f3f-613edf3739f9-12_661_794_395_511} \(R\) represents the event that it is raining
W represents the event that Andrew walks to work \(B\) represents the event that Andrew takes the bus to work \(C\) represents the event that Andrew cycles to work Given that \(\mathrm { P } ( B ) = 0.26\)
  1. find the value of \(p\) Given also that \(\mathrm { P } \left( R ^ { \prime } \mid W \right) = 0.175\)
  2. find the value of \(q\)
  3. Find the probability that Andrew cycles to work. Given that Andrew did not cycle to work on Friday,
  4. find the probability that it was raining on Friday.
WJEC Unit 4 2018 June Q2
7 marks Moderate -0.8
  1. Marie is an athlete who competes in the high jump. In a certain competition she is allowed two attempts to clear each height, but if she is successful with the first attempt she does not jump again at this height. The probability that she is successful with her first jump at a height of \(1 \cdot 7\) m is \(p\). The probability that she is successful with her second jump is also \(p\). The probability that she clears \(1 \cdot 7\) m is \(0 \cdot 64\). Find the value of \(p\). [4]
  2. The following table shows the numbers of male and female athletes competing for Wales in track and field events at a competition.
    TrackField
    Male139
    Female74
    Two athletes are chosen at random to participate in a drugs test. Given that the first athlete is male, find the probability that both are field athletes. [3]