OCR S2 2007 June — Question 2 5 marks

Exam BoardOCR
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2007
SessionJune
Marks5
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicApproximating the Binomial to the Poisson distribution
TypeCalculate single probability using Poisson approximation
DifficultyModerate -0.3 This is a straightforward application of the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution. Students need to identify n=130, p=1/40, calculate λ=np=3.25, then use P(X=4)=e^(-3.25)×3.25^4/4!. While it requires recognizing when the approximation is appropriate (large n, small p), the calculation itself is routine and follows a standard formula with no conceptual challenges beyond basic substitution.
Spec2.04d Normal approximation to binomial5.02n Sum of Poisson variables: is Poisson

2 It is given that on average one car in forty is yellow. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that, in a random sample of 130 cars, exactly 4 are yellow.

AnswerMarks Guidance
\(B(130, 1/40)\) stated or impliedB1
\(\approx Po(3.25)\)M1
\(e^{-3.25} \cdot 3.25^r / r!\)A1 ∀
\(= 0.180\)M1 Parameter their \(np\), or correct parameter(s) ∀
\(0.18\) or a.r.t. \(0.180\)A1 Answer, 0.18 or a.r.t. 0.180 [SR: N(3.25, 3.17) or N(3.25, 3.25): B1M1A1]
$B(130, 1/40)$ stated or implied | B1 |
$\approx Po(3.25)$ | M1 |
$e^{-3.25} \cdot 3.25^r / r!$ | A1 ∀ |
$= 0.180$ | M1 | Parameter their $np$, or correct parameter(s) ∀
$0.18$ or a.r.t. $0.180$ | A1 | Answer, 0.18 or a.r.t. 0.180 [SR: N(3.25, 3.17) or N(3.25, 3.25): B1M1A1]
2 It is given that on average one car in forty is yellow. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that, in a random sample of 130 cars, exactly 4 are yellow.

\hfill \mbox{\textit{OCR S2 2007 Q2 [5]}}