OCR MEI S1 2006 June — Question 6

Exam BoardOCR MEI
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2006
SessionJune
TopicConditional Probability
TypeStandard two-outcome diagnostic test

6 It has been estimated that \(90 \%\) of paintings offered for sale at a particular auction house are genuine, and that the other \(10 \%\) are fakes. The auction house has a test to determine whether or not a given painting is genuine. If this test gives a positive result, it suggests that the painting is genuine. A negative result suggests that the painting is a fake. If a painting is genuine, the probability that the test result is positive is 0.95 .
If a painting is a fake, the probability that the test result is positive is 0.2 .
  1. Copy and complete the probability tree diagram below, to illustrate the information above.
    \includegraphics[max width=\textwidth, alt={}, center]{16488e7a-36fb-47f1-8dbf-dec57387f2bf-4_469_668_861_699} Calculate the probabilities of the following events.
  2. The test gives a positive result.
  3. The test gives a correct result.
  4. The painting is genuine, given a positive result.
  5. The painting is a fake, given a negative result. A second test is more accurate, but very expensive. The auction house has a policy of only using this second test on those paintings with a negative result on the original test.
  6. Using your answers to parts (iv) and (v), explain why the auction house has this policy. The probability that the second test gives a correct result is 0.96 whether the painting is genuine or a fake.
  7. Three paintings are independently offered for sale at the auction house. Calculate the probability that all three paintings are genuine, are judged to be fakes in the first test, but are judged to be genuine in the second test.