4 Between 1946 and 2012 the mean monthly maximum temperature of the water surface of a lake in northern England has been recorded by environmental scientists. Some of the data are shown in Table 4.1.
\begin{table}[h]
\captionsetup{labelformat=empty}
\caption{Table 4.1}
| Month | May | June | July | August | September |
| \(t =\) Time in months | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| \(T =\) Mean temperature in \({ } ^ { \circ } \mathrm { C }\) | 8.8 | 13.2 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 13.3 |
\end{table}
Table 4.2 shows a difference table for the data.
\begin{table}[h]
\captionsetup{labelformat=empty}
\caption{Table 4.2}
| \(t\) | \(T\) | \(\Delta T\) | \(\Delta T ^ { 2 }\) |
| 0 | 8.8 | | |
| | | |
| 1 | 13.2 | | |
| | | |
| 2 | 15.4 | | |
| | | |
| 3 | 15.4 | | |
| | | |
| 4 | 13.3 | | |
\end{table}
- Complete the copy of the difference table in the Printed Answer Booklet.
- Explain why a quadratic model may be appropriate for these data.
- Use Newton's forward difference interpolation formula to construct an interpolating polynomial of degree 2 for these data.
This polynomial is used to model the relationship between \(T\) and \(t\). Between 1946 and 2012 the mean monthly maximum temperature of the water surface of the lake was recorded as \(8.9 ^ { \circ } \mathrm { C }\) for October and \(7.5 ^ { \circ } \mathrm { C }\) for November.
- Determine whether the model is a good fit for the temperatures recorded in October and November.
A scientist recorded the mean monthly maximum temperature of the water surface of the lake in 2022. Some of the data are shown in Table 4.3.
\begin{table}[h]
\captionsetup{labelformat=empty}
\caption{Table 4.3}
| Month | May | June | July | August | September |
| \(t =\) Time in months | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| \(T =\) Mean temperature in \({ } ^ { \circ } \mathrm { C }\) | 10.3 | 14.7 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 14.8 |
\end{table} - Adapt the polynomial found in part (c) so that it can be used to model the relationship between \(T\) and \(t\) for the data in Table 4.3.