CAIE S2 2022 June — Question 3 5 marks

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS2 (Statistics 2)
Year2022
SessionJune
Marks5
PaperDownload PDF ↗
Mark schemeDownload PDF ↗
TopicLinear combinations of normal random variables
TypeComparison involving sums or multiples
DifficultyStandard +0.3 This question requires understanding that X and 3Y are independent normal variables, finding the distribution of X - 3Y using standard formulas (mean and variance of linear combinations), then calculating a single probability. It's slightly above average difficulty due to the '3Y' component requiring variance multiplication by 9, but remains a straightforward application of A-level normal distribution theory with no novel insight required.
Spec5.04b Linear combinations: of normal distributions

3 The lengths, in centimetres, of two types of insect, \(A\) and \(B\), are modelled by the random variables \(X \sim \mathrm {~N} ( 6.2,0.36 )\) and \(Y \sim \mathrm {~N} ( 2.4,0.25 )\) respectively. Find the probability that the length of a randomly chosen type \(A\) insect is greater than the sum of the lengths of 3 randomly chosen type \(B\) insects.

Question 3:
AnswerMarks Guidance
AnswerMark Guidance
\(D = X - (Y_1 + Y_2 + Y_3)\) OE; \(E(D) = 6.2 - 2.4 \times 3 = -1\) OEB1 Give at early stage
\(\text{Var}(D) = 0.36 + 3 \times 0.25 = 1.11\)B1 Give at early stage
\(\frac{0-(-1)}{\sqrt{1.11}} = 0.949\)M1 No standard deviation/variance mixes; Var must come from a combination attempt
\(1 - \Phi(0.949)\)M1 Area consistent with *their* values
\(= 0.171\) (3 s.f.)A1
## Question 3:

| Answer | Mark | Guidance |
|--------|------|----------|
| $D = X - (Y_1 + Y_2 + Y_3)$ OE; $E(D) = 6.2 - 2.4 \times 3 = -1$ OE | B1 | Give at early stage |
| $\text{Var}(D) = 0.36 + 3 \times 0.25 = 1.11$ | B1 | Give at early stage |
| $\frac{0-(-1)}{\sqrt{1.11}} = 0.949$ | M1 | No standard deviation/variance mixes; Var must come from a combination attempt |
| $1 - \Phi(0.949)$ | M1 | Area consistent with *their* values |
| $= 0.171$ (3 s.f.) | A1 | |

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3 The lengths, in centimetres, of two types of insect, $A$ and $B$, are modelled by the random variables $X \sim \mathrm {~N} ( 6.2,0.36 )$ and $Y \sim \mathrm {~N} ( 2.4,0.25 )$ respectively.

Find the probability that the length of a randomly chosen type $A$ insect is greater than the sum of the lengths of 3 randomly chosen type $B$ insects.\\

\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S2 2022 Q3 [5]}}