CAIE S1 2009 November — Question 3

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2009
SessionNovember
TopicConditional Probability
TypeBayes with complementary outcome

3 Maria chooses toast for her breakfast with probability 0.85 . If she does not choose toast then she has a bread roll. If she chooses toast then the probability that she will have jam on it is 0.8 . If she has a bread roll then the probability that she will have jam on it is 0.4 .
  1. Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to show this information.
  2. Given that Maria did not have jam for breakfast, find the probability that she had toast.