CAIE S1 2019 June — Question 2

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2019
SessionJune
TopicConditional Probability
TypeBayes with complementary outcome

2 Megan sends messages to her friends in one of 3 different ways: text, email or social media. For each message, the probability that she uses text is 0.3 and the probability that she uses email is 0.2 . She receives an immediate reply from a text message with probability 0.4 , from an email with probability 0.15 and from social media with probability 0.6 .
  1. Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information.
  2. Given that Megan does not receive an immediate reply to a message, find the probability that the message was an email.