| Exam Board | CAIE |
|---|---|
| Module | S1 (Statistics 1) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Session | June |
| Marks | 6 |
| Paper | Download PDF ↗ |
| Mark scheme | Download PDF ↗ |
| Topic | Hypergeometric Distribution |
| Type | Calculate expectation and variance |
| Difficulty | Moderate -0.8 This is a straightforward hypergeometric distribution question with small numbers (12 socks total, sampling 2). Part (i) is basic probability calculation, part (ii) requires computing three simple probabilities, and part (iii) is direct expectation calculation from the table. All steps are routine with no conceptual challenges beyond recognizing the sampling-without-replacement setup. |
| Spec | 2.04a Discrete probability distributions5.02b Expectation and variance: discrete random variables |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(P(RB) + P(BR) = \frac{4}{12} \times \frac{8}{11} + \frac{8}{12} \times \frac{4}{11}\) | M1 | Multiply 2 probs together and summing two 2-factor probs, unsimplified, condone replacement |
| \(P(\text{diff colours}) = \frac{64}{132} \left(\frac{16}{33}\right) (0.485)\) | A1 | Correct answer |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(1 - P(BB) - P(RR) = 1 - \frac{4}{12} \times \frac{3}{11} - \frac{8}{12} \times \frac{7}{11}\) | M1 | Multiply 2 probs together and subtracting two 2-factor probs from 1, unsimplified, condone replacement |
| \(P(\text{diff colours}) = \frac{64}{132} \left(\frac{16}{33}\right)\) | A1 | Correct answer |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(P(\text{diff colours}) = \frac{(^4C_1 \times ^8C_1)}{^{12}C_2}\) | M1 | Multiply 2 combs together and dividing by a combination |
| \(= \frac{16}{33}\) | A1 | Correct answer |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Number of red socks | 0 | 1 |
| Prob | \(\frac{14}{33}\) | \(\frac{16}{33}\) |
| B1 | Prob distribution table drawn, top row correct, condone additional values with \(p = 0\) stated | |
| B1 | \(P(0)\) or \(P(2)\) correct to 3sf (need not be in table) | |
| B1 | All probs correct to 3sf, condone \(P(0)\) and \(P(2)\) swapped if correct |
| Answer | Marks | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| \(E(X) = 1 \times \frac{16}{33} + 2 \times \frac{3}{33} = \frac{16}{33} + \frac{6}{33} = \frac{22}{33} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)\) | B1ft | ft their table if 0, 1, 2 only, \(0 < p < 1\) |
## Question 3(i):
**Method 1:**
$P(RB) + P(BR) = \frac{4}{12} \times \frac{8}{11} + \frac{8}{12} \times \frac{4}{11}$ | M1 | Multiply 2 probs together and summing two 2-factor probs, unsimplified, condone replacement |
$P(\text{diff colours}) = \frac{64}{132} \left(\frac{16}{33}\right) (0.485)$ | A1 | Correct answer |
**Method 2:**
$1 - P(BB) - P(RR) = 1 - \frac{4}{12} \times \frac{3}{11} - \frac{8}{12} \times \frac{7}{11}$ | M1 | Multiply 2 probs together and subtracting two 2-factor probs from 1, unsimplified, condone replacement |
$P(\text{diff colours}) = \frac{64}{132} \left(\frac{16}{33}\right)$ | A1 | Correct answer |
**Method 3:**
$P(\text{diff colours}) = \frac{(^4C_1 \times ^8C_1)}{^{12}C_2}$ | M1 | Multiply 2 combs together and dividing by a combination |
$= \frac{16}{33}$ | A1 | Correct answer |
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## Question 3(ii):
| Number of red socks | 0 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prob | $\frac{14}{33}$ | $\frac{16}{33}$ | $\frac{3}{33}$ |
| B1 | Prob distribution table drawn, top row correct, condone additional values with $p = 0$ stated |
| B1 | $P(0)$ or $P(2)$ correct to 3sf (need not be in table) |
| B1 | All probs correct to 3sf, condone $P(0)$ and $P(2)$ swapped if correct |
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## Question 3(iii):
$E(X) = 1 \times \frac{16}{33} + 2 \times \frac{3}{33} = \frac{16}{33} + \frac{6}{33} = \frac{22}{33} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)$ | B1ft | ft their table if 0, 1, 2 only, $0 < p < 1$ |
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3 Andy has 4 red socks and 8 black socks in his drawer. He takes 2 socks at random from his drawer.\\
(i) Find the probability that the socks taken are of different colours.\\
The random variable $X$ is the number of red socks taken.\\
(ii) Draw up the probability distribution table for $X$.\\
(iii) Find $\mathrm { E } ( X )$.\\
\hfill \mbox{\textit{CAIE S1 2018 Q3 [6]}}