CAIE S1 2016 June — Question 1

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2016
SessionJune
TopicConditional Probability
TypeStandard Bayes with discrete events

1 Ayman's breakfast drink is tea, coffee or hot chocolate with probabilities \(0.65,0.28,0.07\) respectively. When he drinks tea, the probability that he has milk in it is 0.8 . When he drinks coffee, the probability that he has milk in it is 0.5 . When he drinks hot chocolate he always has milk in it.
  1. Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information.
  2. Find the probability that Ayman's breakfast drink is coffee, given that his drink has milk in it.