CAIE S1 2014 June — Question 3

Exam BoardCAIE
ModuleS1 (Statistics 1)
Year2014
SessionJune
TopicConditional Probability
TypeMulti-stage game or match outcomes

3 Roger and Andy play a tennis match in which the first person to win two sets wins the match. The probability that Roger wins the first set is 0.6 . For sets after the first, the probability that Roger wins the set is 0.7 if he won the previous set, and is 0.25 if he lost the previous set. No set is drawn.
  1. Find the probability that there is a winner of the match after exactly two sets.
  2. Find the probability that Andy wins the match given that there is a winner of the match after exactly two sets.